Longshot of the Day: Race 9 at Churchill Downs
Track: Churchill Downs
Race 9: $150K maiden claimer going 6 furlongs on dirt for 2YO
Post Time: 4:55 PM ET
Horse: #3 Fuoco Vivo (8/1) use as a win by at 6/1 or higher
Churchill Downs is running and here at NYRA Bets we have a 10% WIN BONUS today at Churchill Downs, so make sure to head to NYRA Bets and OPT-IN before placing a single wager at Churchill Downs.
The finale in today’s card at Churchill Downs is a bit like the story of Goldilocks with three longshots. One might be too short of a price, one might be too long of a price, and the other could be just right. Due to the scratch of #8 Spirit of Walkon (7/2), some of these prices are going to move from what they were set at for the morning line, particularly #7 Into Battle (6/1) for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Omaha Beach is a serious win contender with jockey Florent Geroux aboard. Additionally, Cox is fantastic in these spots as over the last five years he has won 35% of races in which he debuted a two-year-old in a maiden claimer sprinting on the dirt. Into Battle’s dam has yet to produce a first-out winner but has had two runners hit the board in their debuts. With all that said, you’re not going to get 6/1 and therefore I’m hesitant to really use this horse as a “longshot” when I know the horse will likely be second choice on the board come post time. On the other end of things, #9 Bye Bye Brady (10/1) might be too much of a gamble, though I do like the odds you will get on this Steve Asmussen runner. The son of Army Mule debuted at Keeneland going seven furlongs, which is always a tricky distance. The horse will escape the inside rail, which is always a tough spot in juvenile sprints, and the cutback to six furlongs should help too. The dam of Bye Bye Brady produced four first-out winners from seven raced foals, so there is plenty of precocity in the family. Asmussen adds blinkers, which should help the horse show better early speed. The horse is interesting enough to choose to use at a price.
I ultimately landed on a horse in the middle, #3 Fuoco Vivo (8/1), for trainer Rohan Crichton. The dam, Beautiful Liar, has never produced a first out winner, but has been highly productive as three of her six offspring have been stakes placed runners including Weigh the Risks who ran a 101 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) this summer in Saratoga. Fuoco Vivo debuted at Churchill Downs in September and had a tough start from an inside post but did show some speed before fading to the back. Crichton has put a couple of nice workouts into the horse including a 46.3 second four-furlong bullet that was first of 13 and he followed that up with a stamina-building 1:01.3 five-furlong workout leading up to the second start. Speaking of second starts, Crichton is otherworldly getting maidens across the wire first in their second starts as he wins 26% of those races over the last five years. When looking specifically at dirt sprints, the numbers jump up to a 36%-win percentage. The horse has every right to move forward, and I love that he showed early speed in debut and should have a better foundation after the first start and his subsequent workouts. At the 8/1 morning line price, he is an attractive win bet in a field filled with some options.