Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Keeneland

Track: Keeneland

Race 7: $110K MSW going 7 furlongs on dirt for 2YO fillies

Post Time: 4:17 PM ET

Horse: #6 Essential Coffee (12/1) use as a win by at 6/1 or higher

Another start to the week at Keeneland means another opportunity to add to your winnings on NYRA Bets as we feature a 10% WIN BONUS on Wednesday, so make sure to OPT-IN today.

I enjoy attacking maiden races with my longshot selections because often you can find a way to get around a favorite or horses can surprise in debut. On Wednesday, Essential Coffee could surprise among a competitive field of juvenile fillies. The favorite, #10 Bonne Sante (5/2) is a legitimate one for trainer Will Walden who has won 30% of maiden races for the OXO Equine ownership group, but most of those have come at secondary tracks like Horseshoe Indianapolis. She ran a solid third in debut and could certainly move forward, but fillies can often regress in their second starts, which makes me want to find a viable alternative. Essential Coffee fits the bill as the daughter of Nyquist brings a few intriguing attributes to the table in this maiden race. For starters, she’s the one horse that has crossed the wire first having bested everyone in her debut race at Churchill Downs, only later getting disqualified to second. While the disqualification was legitimate, she ran well and was over eight lengths clear of the field when she crossed the wire. Trainer Steve Asmussen stepped her up against stakes company based off that effort and she fizzled in the Debutante Stakes but bounced back to near match her debut Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) of a 56 when she was assigned a 54 last time out in a third-place effort. Asmussen has put several nice workouts into the Nyquist filly since her last race on August 10 at Saratoga. Her race up at The Spa was solid enough as it produced two next-out winners, so I believe she is a strong win contender. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione hops aboard for the first time and due to the connections I do not believe you will get the 12/1 morning line price, but she should still be solid value because she is a little light on speed figures. The key will be the break as she went to gate-to-wire in debut over a wet track. It's possible she is the product of those track conditions, as she has synthetic/turf pedigree, but she is also the half-sibling to Grade 3 winner Skinner who prefers dry tracks.