Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Keeneland
Track: Keeneland
Race 8: Jessamine Stakes (G2) going 1 1/16 miles on turf for 2YO fillies
Post Time: 4:44 PM ET
Horse: #11 Imaginationthelady (10/1) use as a win by at 7/1 or higher
It’s Opening Day at Keeneland, which is always an exciting day, but it’s made even better on NYRA Bets as we have a great 10% BONUS on exactas today at Keeneland, so make sure to OPT IN and play.
While the feature race in Lexington, KY is the Alcibiades (G1), the Jessamine (G2) is the better betting race featuring two-year-old fillies. The favorite, #12 Time to Dream (2/1), has been incredibly impressive in her two career starts, but has a wide post and will be shipping out of New York for the first time. I find the horse to her inside, Imaginationthelady, to be interesting at a price for trainer Brendan Walsh. The daughter of Not This Time out of an unraced War Front dam is bred for turf and distance, so today’s added ground should be beneficial. She broke her maiden at Kentucky Downs last month and what made that run so impressive is that she dueled up front and was still able to pull away to win by over a length. Now, I am typically skeptical of horses coming out of races at Kentucky Downs as the undulating turf course can take something out of them in their next starts. However, Walsh is a trainer I trust in these spots as he runs his horses regularly at Kentucky Downs and turns them around to race during the Keeneland Fall Meet, so he knows how to condition them. More importantly, the horse is giving all signs that she is feeling well as evidenced by the five-furlong bullet workout on September 26 where she went 1:00.1 over the synthetic at Turfway Park. She loses her jockey Flavien Prat who rides for Brad Cox in this race, but picks up the legendary Frankie Dettori, which I view as a positive. Dettori is good with a horse that has some early speed, and he should be able to get her up front and relaxed while saving ground while crossing over most of the field. I also have found Dettori prefers to make an outside run with his horses, so the fact she will naturally be outside of horses should help ensure an uneventful trip. This is a race that is wide open if you can get past the morning line favorite. Perhaps Time to Dream is simply that good, but I think it’s worth trying to beat her or at least get creative with some choices underneath to pair with her in an exacta.