Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Aqueduct
Track: Aqueduct
Race 8: $80K MSW going 1 mile on dirt for 4+
Post Time: 4:38 PM ET
Horse: #3 Cuando (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 5/1.
Let’s head to the bailout race at The Big A and there are a pair of horses coming back from layoffs that intrigue me in this maiden race, but I will concentrate mostly on Cuando. There is little doubt that the son of Not This Time will win this race easily if he runs back to his best effort (91 Beyer Speed Figure), but that might be a tall task. After recording that monster effort where he finished second to Pentathlon in August at Saratoga, we witnessed declining efforts in September and October, which eventually landed him on the bench until today. Trainer Bruce Levine is one of the sharper trainers at getting horses ready off the bench and he’s been working Cuando steadily since December, so conditioning and fitness should not be an issue. The horse has run second three times going a mile at Aqueduct, so you know he is capable of being competitive in this field and he has also faced the best collective competition during his career. Horses like four-time winner Ridgewood Runner, stakes winner Reasoned Analysis, Grade 3-winner Society Man, in addition to horses like Montalcino, Malarchuk, and Unit Economics all cover his running lines. He has never come back from a layoff having run consistently from January to October to last year in a combined 10 starts, so perhaps the declining numbers were nothing more than fatigue at the end of a long campaign. He ran second in debut to Ridgewood Runner, which is the closest approximation we can get to him running back off the bench. The horse has good early speed and gets top Aqueduct jockey Kendrick Carmouche on the mount. He is also a recent gelding, which is an angle I know analyst like Maggie Wolfendale and Andie Biancone tend to emphasize as a plus move. The effort is encouraging for today’s race and at 8/1, he presents good value in a field where it feels wide open. The other horse coming back from a layoff is #2 Majestic Michael (6/1) for former Todd Pletcher assistant, Amelia Green, who has done a good job with her horses in limited opportunities since striking out on her own at the end of last year. This horse has shown good potential having never missed the board in three starts, but has had significant layoffs after two of his three starts and is coming back from the first time in 11 months. He has good speed and is getting blinkers added. If the race was at six furlongs, I would like him more, but I worry he will tire late, but a horse to pay attention to in terms of how the betting public views him this afternoon.