Longshot of the Day: Race 10 at Oaklawn Park
Track: Oaklawn Park
Race 10: $50K maiden claimer going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ Arkansas-bred fillies and mares
Post Time: 5:50 PM ET
Horse: #10 Kiamichi (10/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 7/1 or higher.
The last couple of days my Longshot of the Day column felt a bit like handicapping a New York turf race with “the other Chad” as my “other longshot” that I mentioned at the end of the column ended up being the winning pick. Well, I’m going to just focus on one today, so let’s make it count.
In the bailout race at Oaklawn Park, we have a full field of Arky-bred fillies. I’m going to look at Kiamichi who is dropping in class from running against MSW company in debut and making a decent run late to finish sixth in a 12-horse field. The daughter of Brahms got off slowly and was shuffled back in debut before making a run late and passing foes. It was the sort of effort that gives me hope next time out that if the horse can break more effectively and sit a more forward trip that she can finish strong and move forward from that debut effort. Trainer Lindsay Schultz is a reliable figure at Oaklawn Park and has had success getting horses to move forward in their second starts. The other key is that several other horses running today are coming out of the same race. #1 Aloha Baby (3/1) is the best of that group but is now having to break from the rail while not having good speed and is also 0-6 lifetime. She and Kiamichi were the only two who really showed the ability to make up significant ground in that last effort, which was won by a horse sitting the perfect trip up front. It is worth noting Kiamichi’s debut came over a wet track and we are expecting much better conditions today in Hot Springs, AR, so there is a chance she responds better to the faster racing surface.
I wanted to try and make a case for a debut runner, but trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez’s entry, #11 Morally Complex (8/1), is out of a mare who is 0-6 producing first out winners. His sire, Complexity, was off to a hot start in the summer of 2024 with his first crop but has cooled off a bit since. Still, that’s a trainer who is winning at a 29% clip, though he has not had as much success in the maiden ranks.