Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Tampa Bay Downs

Track: Tampa Bay Downs

Race 5: $16,000 claimer going 1 mile on turf for 4+ fillies and mares

Post Time: 2:35 PM ET

Horse: #7 Glitter Bay (8/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

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On Saturday I am attacking a horse that should outrun their morning line odds. Glitter Bay finished third last time out and was a length behind #8 E M’s Treasuregirl (5/2) who is your morning line favorite. That seems like an unrealistic betting disparity for a horse that has good running lines when you sift through them. Glitter Bay’s past performances are a little muddied up, but when you isolate her races over firm turf, you see a consistent and honest runner. If you draw a line through her dirt races and those over a yielding track, she has hit the board four of her last five turf starts with two wins. Her lone time missing the board was in an open company stakes races against the boys here she finished fifth of nine. She has a useful running style as she tracks the pace and does not give herself too much to do turning for home. She might have gotten moved a tough too early last time out, but she is now third back from a brief freshening, which is a solid angle, and she is also coming off a career high Beyer Speed Figure. At 8/1 she provides outstanding value as either a win bet or a horse to use in your exacta or trifecta wagers. Finally, there should be a strong pace on Saturday as three horses are likely to contend for the early lead and some of the fractions on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs can be the opposite of what we see on the turf in New York as the jockey colony in Florida tends to be a little more aggressive. This should set up perfectly for Glitter Bay who can get first crack at the beleaguered leaders coming for home.