Honeybee Stakes Picks

Pace: Expect a hot pace in here, as we have several runners with good early speed or who like to be on the lead. The best early speed of the group is likely to be the #9 Look Forward, a California speedball who I see getting the lead here, followed by the #13 Five G and the #1 Muhimma, so long as she breaks. I can see the George Weaver trainee, the #13 Five G (4-1), who gets Irad Ortiz aboard for the first time being a threat, or at least in the race's early stages. Her last start in the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream Park looked impressive, and her Beyer Speed Figure of an 86 puts her at about the highest last-out figure besides your morning line favorite, the #1 Muhimma. She only faced light pressure from your pacesetter Andrea in there, who faded around the turn as Five G sped up the second quarter, and she pulled away from a field of tired runners to win by nine lengths. Although she ran a decent race and posted an impressive figure, she is facing a different caliber of fillies here, and it looks to be unclear as to which surface she prefers.

When I say different caliber of fillies, I’m thinking of the #1 Muhimma (7-5). The 3-for-3 Brad Cox trainee is arguably the best filly in here and has been nothing but impressive. We last saw her go gate to wire to win the Demoiselle (G2) back in December. She broke from the one hole that day and had no issues, but she will have to do it again on Sunday and also face pace pressure from the several aforementioned frontrunners. With this being a different dynamic than she has faced before, with pace pressure at stake, I’m using it as an opportunity to play against her. I have my eye on a strong closer who’s at double digits on the morning line, and the race dynamics look to set up nicely for.

#5 Quickick (12-1)

We last saw the two-time Grade 1 placed daughter of McKinzie in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and I knew I’d want to take her out of that race immediately. After breaking in last and trailing about three lengths off the rest of the field, she passed several runners coming around the second turn and came four wide down the stretch to run on determinedly for 3rd to Immersive and Vodka with a Twist. Given her slow start and the fact that she ran that well as a two-year-old shipping out to California, it’s notable that she only lost by six lengths to Immersive and Vodka with a Twist, and fourth-place finisher Scottish Lassie finished 9 ¼ lengths ahead of the rest of the field. It doesn’t hurt to see that the 5th place finisher, La Cara, came back to win the Suncoast Stakes two weeks ago. Before the Breeders’ Cup, she finished 2nd to Immersive in the Darley Alcibiades (G1) after getting bumped at the start and making up ground over the Keeneland track to only get beat by about a length. Quickick is going to have a fast pace to run into on Sunday and possesses the best late speed of the group. Although her figures may look light compared to your shorter-priced horses in here, we have not seen her since she was late into her 2-year-old year, and there is reason to believe that she will improve as a 3-year-old, similar to her sire. She is out of GSW Graeme Six and is the half-sibling to Seymourdini, who ran a 113 Beyer Speed Figure in the State Dinner Stakes at Belmont, and Monmouth Oaks (G3) winner Delightful Joy. You know the distance is no issue, and she has kept the company of some of the best fillies we have seen in this division. Dylan Davis stays aboard, and trainer Tom Amoss has had success returning off similar layoffs, hitting at a 26%-win rate over the last 5 years.

#1 Muhimma (7-5)

I’m well aware that it will take a lot to beat the best filly in here, but there are some ways that I can see her getting beat here. First, she will have to break cleanly from the 1-hole if she wants to be on the lead. Although she has done it before, it’s not automatic that it will play out just as ideally. Then, if she does break, she will have to get herself into an ideal position up front and face the most significant pace pressure from the #9 Look Forward and a few other fillies that like to be forwardly placed as well. If she tries to rate, she can also find herself in a pace duel with any of the several speedy fillies in here and arguably has more to deal with than she has in the past.

Her pedigree isn’t a concern, but it isn’t a big positive either. She’s sired by Munnings, who isn’t necessarily known for getting two-turn winners. Muhimma was able to do it upfront on the lead, facing mild pressure in New York. Granted, she was able to get the two turns under that circumstance and has the Tapit influence from her dam, but can she replicate it here with a hot pace and more to deal with? For me, there are too many betting options to put her on top at the short price she will be and too many questions not to try to beat her. However, she will be on every ticket that isn’t a Win Bet of mine and has shown too much talent not to think she will take a piece regardless of how the dynamics play out.

#12 Quietside (8-1)

Quietside is a filly who always runs her race, no matter what. Although I wanted to put her on top and settled for a deep closer with a ton of upside instead, there are reasons to believe that Quietside is a Win candidate in this race. Notably, in her last effort, where she finished 2nd in the Martha Washington, she got a less-than-ideal ride and trip and never looked comfortable throughout the entire race. She is going to have some more pace to run at on Sunday and gets red-hot jockey Jose Ortiz aboard for the first time. She was also flying in her last work, and I do wonder if any tactics will change coming into this. With pace to run at, a new jockey up, a bullet work coming into this, and never finishing off the board in all 5 of her career starts, I feel confident putting her third at a more desirable price than we have ever gotten on her in the past.

#6 Take Charge Milady (9/2)

Your Martha Washington Stakes winner is certainly a main player here as she continues to improve for trainer Kenny McPeek. After finishing 2nd to the other Kenny McPeek trainee in here- the #11 Anonima- in her 2nd career start, she came from off the pace to break her maiden in her next start at Oaklawn Park for the first time. Two runners in that maiden race came back to win their next time out, and one of them improved her Beyer Speed Figure by 29 points. Since Take Charge Milady broke her maiden, we saw her come pretty wide in the Martha Washington to put away Quietside. After putting together two back-to-back wins over this track, this filly looks to take another step up against a deeper field but is right on par with a lot of your main players in here, given her 84 Beyer Speed Figure last time out.

This prep is stacked with several exciting fillies and familiar names and provides plenty of betting opportunities within a 13-horse field. However, the elephant in the room is the ultra-talented and physically impressive Muhimma, who Brad Cox sends here to collect her 50 Kentucky Oaks points. Reach out to us on @nyrabets to give us your top pick and strategy for playing the Honeybee Stakes (G3).