Holy Bull Picks

Pace: The pace dynamics are interesting in the Holy Bull (G3) as you have some horses stretching out and others who are getting an equipment change that could lead to different dynamics. I would expect #3 Tappan Street to be out near the front after showing good sprinter speed debuting at seven furlongs while #2 Ferocious is coming back from a disappointing Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but is getting blinkers added, which should put him closer to the front. Meanwhile, you should likely expect #4 Guns Loaded to be leading them into the first turn as both his victories have come in gate-to-wire fashion. What makes the pace dynamics intriguing is that several of these horses with good early speed are also able to rate, so there are few that need to be on the front end, except for Guns Loaded. In a relatively short field, I would anticipate everyone will be able to get a comfortable trip with Ferocious and Tappan Street representing good inside speed that can track behind the early pacesetter.

#3 Tappan Street (3/1) – Taking a modest swing against the favorite with a Brad Cox runner who won on debut at seven furlongs and is immediately stepping up to face stakes company. The $1 million son of Into Mischief appears to be the real deal after stalking the early pace first time out and then getting by the competition where he was hitting his best stride late. It is promising to see the maiden race has already produced two next-out winners, both of whom won at Gulfstream Park in MSW races on the dirt and did not drop in class or switch surfaces. Additionally, those two winners saw their Beyer Speed Figures increase from their previous race, which makes you believe the 84 BSF that Tappan Street earned that day is legitimate and could be improved upon. Given his natural speed to stalk the pace sprinting, jockey Luis Saez could put him up front, but I would not be shocked if this horse was asked to sit just behind Guns Loaded going into the first turn. The key will be how he contends with Ferocious on his inside and whether he tries to get in front of him on the rail or is content sitting in the two path next to him around both turns. Saez opts to ride this horse over Mucho Macho Man winner Guns Loaded, which is telling as both are talented runners. You want to be forward on this Gulfstream Park main track, which he will be on Saturday and for what it’s worth, he is carrying four fewer pounds than Ferocious.

#2 Ferocious (9/5) – Ferocious will be on all my Late Pick 5 tickets however, if I am playing this race straight up with a win bet, I will likely play against him. The $1.3 million dollar son of Flatter had a dazzling debut at Saratoga this summer romping home by a distance but then had a tough trip in the Hopeful (G1) where he fell back and then reengaged Chancer McPatrick to finish second. After that he chased lone speed in both the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Now he comes back for what is sure to be an aggressive 2025 campaign from the same trainer and team that managed Mage to a Kentucky Derby victory two years ago. Trainer Gustavo Delgado has put the horse through three official works leading up to this race and he looks good, but has decided to add the blinkers, which makes sense given what we saw out of him during the stretch run in the Hopeful (G1). Additionally, he feels like a horse that runs into some trouble by trying to rate behind horses and getting him up front might be the key to his success. There are several unproven contenders in this race, and he is, by far, the most battle-tested runner who has faced the top horses in his generation. He should sit an ideal trip tracking the pace and the question is whether he will be good enough or if some of these newcomers have another level to their speed.

#7 Burnham Street (5/1) – It will be interesting to see the price you end up with on Burnham Street as the son of Liam’s Map is not trained by Kentucky Derby winning connections and has a more modest pedigree. However, he has shown solid improvement while running against good competition in his first three starts, two of which have been around two turns. He was a close second in debut in a bizarre $150,000 maiden claiming race, but then he came back to finish second to Monet’s Magic at Churchill Downs going two turns in a good MSW race. Finally, trainer Ian Wilkes put the blinkers on, and the horse blew away the competition last time out at Gulfstream Park going Saturday’s distance. The horse has been training lights out for Wilkes leading up to the race and could continue to improve off his maiden breaking score. The blinkers stay on, so expect good early speed, but the question will be where jockey Edgar Zayas puts him in the early going. He can pass horses as he demonstrated in his first two career efforts, so he does not need the lead, but I would expect Zayas to try and save some ground from the outside post to ensure a two-wide trip. His three half-siblings are all five-time winners, albeit mostly against lesser competition, but Liam’s Map might be a good pedigree match for a productive mare. There is plenty to like with this horse having the foundation of having already run around two turns twice before. He will be included on all my Late Pick 5 tickets as well.

#4 Guns Loaded (5/2) – The winner of the Mucho Macho Man is a bit of an enigma. He is bred for distance as he is sired by Gun Runner out of a Bernadini mare and was an $800,000 purchase in the 2023 Keeneland September sales. However, his maiden breaking victory was at six furlongs and last time when he did a one-turn mile, he was tiring late and nearly got beat by Treaty of Rome. He had everything his own way in that race and carved out incredibly modest fractions for Gulfstream Park standards going 24.2 and 47.3 to the quarter- and half-mile mark. He is going to have more company up front while going two turns and I think it is fair to question whether he is best at one turn or two. He is also getting a jockey change as Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over for Luis Saez. It seems highly unlikely that Saez was kicked off the mount and more likely that he chose to ride Cox’s Tappan Street over Guns Loaded. That said, picking up one of the two best jockeys in North America in the form of Ortiz Jr. is hardly a consolation prize. However, Guns Loaded might present a challenge for Ortiz Jr. who can occasionally struggle with riding frontrunners (think Cogburn in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint) as he can sometimes lose track of the fractions. He is such a brilliant rider in nearly every other aspect that simply being average at something makes it look like a deficiency, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on at times. I think Guns Loaded will be a horse we see later this year at Saratoga, but maybe in the H. Allen Jerkens and not the Travers.