Holiday Cheer Stakes Picks

The Holiday Cheer Stakes is a fun race with some big names, and I am going to side with last year’s winner #3 Howard Wolowitz for trainer Jose D’Angelo who is just over a month removed from winning his first two Breeders’ Cup races. D’Angelo has been a trainer I’ve respected for years, and it is wonderful to see him start to get the national recognition he deserves as a horseman and trainer. Howard Wolowitz has the versatility to win this race in a few different ways depending on how things play out in the first 100 yards. He can come from off the pace but also go straight to the front. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will have some options but will need to make sure the son of Munnings is in the clear from a further inside post position. The horse is undefeated in his two efforts over all-weather surfaces with one of them being last year’s renewal of this race at Turfway Park. He has been training sharply for D’Angelo evidenced by a pair of bullet works leading up to Saturday at he went 47.2 second and 47.4 seconds over four furlongs in his last two timed workouts. One concern might be that Ortiz Jr. is not accustomed to Turfway Park and is 0-4 hitting the board with his mounts there, but he rides the all-weather surface at Gulfstream Park with no issue, so I am not as concerned as a result.

Another horse that popped big on synthetic is #2 Run Carson for trainer Kelsey Danner who finished second last year in this race to Howard Wolowitz. It was the son of Maclean’s Music’s only run over an all-weather surface, but he ran a 98 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and just tired a bit late but was over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher One Timer. The horse has always been an honest runner with four wins in 12 starts and nine finishes in the top three including last time out in the Mighty Beau Stakes at Churchill Downs. He is coming off a layoff since June, which is not typically a great move for Danner who is 0-12 to start the Turfway Park meet. However, the horse has had seven registered workouts leading up to Saturday with the last two coming over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. He should be fit and comfortable with his surroundings come post time. Jockey Adam Beschizza is a veteran at Turfway Park and should get the horse into a forward position out of the gate. The horse might not be in the same form he was in last fall, but getting back on the all-weather surface could perk him up and he has the speed to be in it early and hold on.

A horse that I’ve always liked is #5 Arrest Me Red as the seven-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile tends to have a nose for the wire winning 10-28 career starts with two of those wins coming in three career starts over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. He can easily handle the distance and is one of the more consistent runners in the race as he has recorded a 90+ BSF his last eight races and has done so all three times on synthetic. He can go to the front but has shown the ability to pass horses from a mid-pack position as well. Trainer Wesley Ward is 4-9 winning at Turfway Park to start off the meet and he is always dangerous here over the winter, as is jockey Luan Machado. Affectionately referred to as “The Ax Man,” Machado is the top rider in the colony and is off to another scorching start this meet winning 21% of his mounts and finishing in the exacta 38% of the time. Machado will have options to play the break and get the horse settled into a good position. He has been facing many of the top competitors in this race on the turf, but the switch to the all-weather might give him the advantage he needs seeing as his sire produces progeny that win at an 18% clip on the all-weather surface.

Finally, you have #7 Roll On Big Joe who is cross entered at Oaklawn Park for a stakes race on Saturday, so his participation is not guaranteed. If he runs, he is likely the controlling speed of the race and has proven to be effective at the distance winning three times and finishing in the exacta seven times in ten efforts. However, I do wonder whether he regresses off his last effort, which was a dominating victory going six furlongs at Churchill Downs where he got a 103 BSF. The last time he popped a huge speed figure, he regressed badly in his next start only to bounce back the following race and start a steady progression back to his typical numbers. He has run over a synthetic surface onc

We might have had to wait eight days due to inclement weather, but last Saturday’s card at Turfway Park is back with thrilling stakes action on Sunday with four listed stakes and full fields, so you want to make sure to play them all on NYRA Bets. The Holiday Cheer Stakes is a fun race with some big names, and I am going to side with last year’s winner #3 Howard Wolowitz (3/1) for trainer Jose D’Angelo who is just over a month removed from winning his first two Breeders’ Cup races. D’Angelo has been a trainer I’ve respected for years, and it is wonderful to see him start to get the national recognition he deserves as a horseman and trainer. Howard Wolowitz has the versatility to win this race in a few different ways depending on how things play out in the first 100 yards. He can come from off the pace but also go straight to the front. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will have some options but will need to make sure the son of Munnings is in the clear from a further inside post position. The horse is undefeated in his two efforts over all-weather surfaces with one of them being last year’s renewal of this race at Turfway Park. He has been training sharply for D’Angelo evidenced by a pair of bullet works leading up to Saturday at he went 47.2 second and 47.4 seconds over four furlongs in his last two timed workouts. One concern might be that Ortiz Jr. is not accustomed to Turfway Park and is 0-4 hitting the board with his mounts there, but he rides the all-weather surface at Gulfstream Park with no issue, so I am not as concerned as a result.

Another horse that popped big on synthetic is #2 Run Carson (10/1) for trainer Kelsey Danner who finished second last year in this race to Howard Wolowitz. It was the son of Maclean’s Music’s only run over an all-weather surface, but he ran a 98 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and just tired a bit late but was over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher One Timer. The horse has always been an honest runner with four wins in 12 starts and nine finishes in the top three including last time out in the Mighty Beau Stakes at Churchill Downs. He is coming off a layoff since June, which is not typically a great move for Danner who is 0-12 to start the Turfway Park meet. However, the horse has had seven registered workouts leading up to Saturday with the last two coming over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. He should be fit and comfortable with his surroundings come post time. Jockey Adam Beschizza is a veteran at Turfway Park and should get the horse into a forward position out of the gate. The horse might not be in the same form he was in last fall, but getting back on the all-weather surface could perk him up and he has the speed to be in it early and hold on.

A horse that I’ve always liked is #5 Arrest Me Red (8/1) as the seven-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile tends to have a nose for the wire winning 10-28 career starts with two of those wins coming in three career starts over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. He can easily handle the distance and is one of the more consistent runners in the race as he has recorded a 90+ BSF his last eight races and has done so all three times on synthetic. He can go to the front but has shown the ability to pass horses from a mid-pack position as well. Trainer Wesley Ward is 4-9 winning at Turfway Park to start off the meet and he is always dangerous here over the winter, as is jockey Luan Machado. Affectionately referred to as “The Ax Man,” Machado is the top rider in the colony and is off to another scorching start this meet winning 21% of his mounts and finishing in the exacta 38% of the time. Machado will have options to play the break and get the horse settled into a good position. He has been facing many of the top competitors in this race on the turf, but the switch to the all-weather might give him the advantage he needs seeing as his sire produces progeny that win at an 18% clip on the all-weather surface.

Finally, #7 Roll On Big Joe (2/1) was initially cross entered in this race and opted to run in the Ring the Bell Stakes last week at Oaklawn Park, so it seems highly unlikely he will be running again on Sunday. As a result, one could look at #8 Nobals (6/1) coming off a stakes win over the all-weather surface at Woodbine, but if you look at his recent running lines, he is simply not the same off Lasix as he has not won a race without Lasix since the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1). Therefore, I’ll go with another price in the form of #4 Out On Bail (10/1) for trainer Mike Maker with jockey Flavien Prat taking the mount. The New York-bred has been competing against open company since breaking his maiden and is coming off a victory in the Carle Place Stakes in October at Belmont at the Big A. The speed figures need to get faster, but it’s encouraging Maker brings this one into such a big spot trying synthetic for the first time, but the pedigree makes sense. Out On Bail is sired by Tiz the Law whose dam, Tizfiz, was a synthetic winner and we have now seen Tiz the Law start to be a productive sire in synthetic sprints as his progeny win at a 25% clip in those races, which is nearly double the all-sire average. While Out on Bail has done well on turf, he has a higher Tomlinson score for synthetic (382) than the grass (347). I love that Prat takes the mount and the that the horse has gotten in a local work over the surface at Turfway Park. The horse has good early speed but can be tactically ridden as he can rate off the pace while staying close to the leaders. e before, at Gulfstream Park, where he bested Florida-bred optional claiming competition and was assigned an 85 BSF. It is hard to take too much from that performance due to the massive class chasm compared to what he will face Saturday. His Tomlinson Figure for synthetic is an eye-popping 403, which makes sense given his sire is Prospective who won three times over the all-weather surface at Woodbine and produces 21% winners on synthetic. If he runs, he is dangerous, particularly if jockey Julien Leparoux puts him up front given his post position relative to the other speed in the race.