Hill Prince Stakes Picks

A competitive field of seven for the Hill Prince and #1 Barlett (8/1) will lead the way with the overwhelming early speed advantage while trying turf for the first time but will be facing a significant class test. #2 Cugino (5/2) is an intriguing horse who will likely be second choice come post for trainer Shug McGaughey. The son of Twirling Candy suffered a series of close defeats after breaking his maiden in debut at Aqueduct last fall. After finishing second by a neck in the Colonel Liam Stakes and second by a nose in the Transylvania (G3), McGaughey went to the blinkers and while he only managed to finish fourth in the American Turf (G2), he got an easy win next time out in the Audubon Stakes at Churchill Downs. He came back last time out at Kentucky Downs and finished a disappointing last while going over 1 ¼ miles over the undulating turf course that some horses do not like. I am generally willing to draw a line through Kentucky Downs form (for good and for bad), especially when top jockey, Flavien Prat, stays on the mount. Look for the horse to bounce back in a big way. He has the versatility of having won gate-to-wire and tracking the pace. With Barlett entered, he will be sitting behind the early pace setter and Prat on the turf has been incredibly effective at NYRA this year. Trainer Bill Mott has been on a well-documented cold streak for the last few months in New York. Over the last three months, he is 7-123 (6%) in the state with a $0.44 ROI. He is only 1-20 (5%) winning graded stakes in the Empire State during that time as well. So, why pick #7 Royal Majesty (7/2) second? Mott has been running more competitively in these spots despite not winning. His runners have hit the board in 40% of graded stakes races in New York during the last three months and 50% of them have hit the board in graded stakes turf races during that same stretch. His best horses are running solid, but just not quite getting the job done. The son of Frankel has had an interesting run the last few months as faced off with Grade 1 company twice and finished second to Donegal Momentum last time out in the Gio Ponti. In his two G1 efforts, he held his own finishing a nose behind your morning line favorite Deterministics in the Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1). The horse has some speed and jockey Junior Alvarado is likely to try and cross a few horses to save ground going into the first turn while placing him in a tracking position. His only two victories have come with the assistance of Lasix, but he finished no worse than fourth (and no further than two lengths from the winner) over his last five starts. Meanwhile, trainer Christophe Clement’s #3 Deterministic (2/1) is your morning line favorite after a close runner-up finish to Carson’s Run in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational (G3). I do wonder how much the son of Liam’s Map has benefited from the fact the 3YO turf distance division is not particularly strong as the group has been hovering around the low-to-mid 80s for Beyer Speed Figures most of the year. Even taking speed figures out of the equation, the group has not been the most visually overwhelming. All that said, Deterministic shows up every time. His only two poor performances were going two turns on the dirt. He won the Virginia Derby (G3) two back and has the sort of early speed that jockey Joel Rosario can give him a few different types of trips depending on how things break. I think cutting back to nine furlongs is going to be beneficial, but I am not sure how good the competition was that he beat down at Colonial Downs in that Virginia Derby (G3) as the third-place finisher that day will be one of the highest prices on the board. Finally, Chad Brown has a last out maiden winner, #6 Right to Vote (12/1) in this race. If we were just picking horses by their names (which we DO NOT advocate) then selecting a horse named Right to Vote, the week of our general election would seem to make sense. Name aside, the horse was impressive coming back from a 10-month layoff to break his maiden last time out at Saratoga. He patiently stalked the pace and then blew by the competition to win easily for jockey Manny Franco, who stays aboard for Saturday. The fact Brown is putting the son of Vino Rosso in this spot coming off a maiden win speaks to his confidence level and the horse should give an even better account of himself on Saturday as he will be second back from the layoff. He is switching off Lasix for the first time, but Brown’s horses rarely have trouble with that transition. We will see if he measures up to the competition, but you are getting a good price on a horse that has upside potential. Would definitely include this horse on my horizontal tickets if you’re trying to beat one (or both) of the favorites.