Haskell Stakes Picks

Overview: The Preakness (G1) winner highlights a talented field of runners at Monmouth Park for the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series Win and You’re In Haskell (G1) presented by NYRA Bets. Journalism certainly stands over the field in terms of class and speed figures, which is why he is the 4/5 favorite. From a pace perspective, Bob Baffert’s Goal Oriented is going to be forward, but so too will Bracket Buster, Kentucky Outlaw, Wildncrazynight, and even Preakness (G1) runner-up Gosger. With sufficient pace, the favorite should have an ideal trip sitting behind the early pacesetters before he unleashes his powerful closing kick. The race provides an automatic bid to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and will serve as a prep for Journalism before he heads to his third showdown against his rival Sovereignty who has gotten the best of him in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).

#2 Journalism (4/5) – There is little I have left to write about Journalism that I have not already written or said. The son of Curlin has been the best horse of his three-year-old crop minus Sovereignty who has bested him in both head-to-head showdowns. Outside of Bill Mott’s Godolphin runner, nobody has seriously come close to challenging the Michael McCarthy trainee as even the promising Kentucky Derby (G1) third-place finisher Baeza is now 0-3 against his fellow California-based rival. What makes Journalism so effective is his running style and stamina. He has the versatility to sit further back off the pace or lay close to the pace depending on the race flow dynamics. Nine furlongs would seem to be his best distance as he is cutting back after running all three legs of the Triple Crown. He has run triple digit Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) in four of his last five races with the lone exception being the 98 he earned while winning the Preakness (G1) in thrilling fashion after overcoming a dramatic moment at the top of the stretch. No other horse in the race has run a triple digit BSF in their careers. Finally, Journalism’s dam, Mopotism, recently passed away due to complications with colic, which will add to an emotional day for the connections. This feels like a formality for Journalism as he will take I-87 North after the victory to take on Sovereignty in the Travers next month.

#6 Gosger (9/2) – The runner-up in the Preakness (G1) may currently be a Triple Crown footnote, but the son of Nyquist for trainer Brendan Walsh was mere feet away from upsetting expectations at Pimlico if not for a jaw-dropping effort from Sovereignty. The winner of the Lexington (G3) came into the Preakness (G1) with the perfect running style as he prefers to closely track the early pace before taking over in the stretch, which is exactly what Luis Saez did in Baltimore and what he will look to do it again at Monmouth Park. There is plenty of speed signed on, which means Seaz can play the break to pick his spot. I would imagine he will be sitting a close third behind the likes of Kentucky Outlaw and Goal Oriented who are both to his outside and will be motivated to cross over the field going into the first turn to save ground. Trainer Brendan Walsh is as good as they come when he sets a target for a horse, and he has been very deliberate since the Preakness (G1) runner-up finish that he would point the horse to either the Haskell (G1) or Jim Dandy (G2). The horse has been training beautifully for Walsh at Churchill Downs and should be sitting on another huge effort after running a career-best 97 BSF last time out. Even a slight improvement will put him in a position to challenge Journalism as he will likely have a better early position and might be able to get the jump on the heavy favorite over a track that favors speed.

#4 Burnham Square (5/1) – The winner of the Blue Grass (G1) had a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby (G1) but still managed to finish sixth in the Run for the Roses. It was promising to see the son of Liam’s Map come back with a strong runner-up finish in the Matt Winn (G3) where he was up against it from a pace perspective in a four-horse field with lone speed in the form of East Avenue. However, he managed to make up ground and get within a half length of winning the race under a strong ride from jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. The Ian Wilkes trainee has been a consistent horse having won the Fountain of Youth (G2) in addition to the Blue Grass (G1), but he is more of an off-the-pace presence. The good news is that he should get sufficient pace to run at on Saturday. However, the bad news is that he will have to finish stronger than a horse like Journalism, which seems unlikely. He feels like a horse that will be able to rack up several listed stakes, Grade 3, and an occasional Grade 2 victory, but will fall short against the elite horses in his generation such as Sovereignty and Journalism. He should be able to make his run but it is hard to see him doing more than picking up the pieces as, unlikely Gosger, he has plateaued in terms of his speed figures and is likely to run to his current form, which would be good enough to hit the board.

#8 Goal Oriented (4/1) – Whenever trainer Bob Baffert ships a horse east after a series of strong bullet workouts, you must take notice. However, it is difficult for me to get too excited for Goal Oriented at his current 4/1 price on the morning line. If he were to float up to 6/1 or 8/1, then he becomes a significantly more interesting play. The winner of his first two career starts took a massive step up in class when he ran in the Preakness (G1) and he was part of the nearly disastrous events that unfolded at the top of the stretch as jockey Flavien Prat refused to budge and give way to Journalism. Prat makes the trip from Saratoga to ride him again, which is a promising development. The son of Not This Time has a versatile running style having won his first two races in completely different fashions, but due to the outside post position, look for Prat to ensure the horse is forward and the way he has been training would also strongly indicate the plan is to get to the front. His BSF would need to improve by 10 points to get the job done, but we saw a similar stepwise progression from Gosger between his Lexington (G3) and Preakness (G1) performance, so it is hardly out of the question. It is encouraging that Baffert runs the horse back in such an aggressive spot after pushing him out last time, but it is also worth noting that many of Baffert’s three-year-old runners have disappointed this year and been unwise bets. I would consider using Goal Oriented on deeper vertical tickets and potentially as a play if you are trying to beat Journalism in the Late P5, but view Burnham Square and Gosger as more likely winners.