Harlan's Holiday Stakes

Pace: An intriguing field for the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, which serves as a prep race for next month’s Pegasus World Cup. Look for #4 Digital Ops (10/1) to be prominent early for new trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Saffie is adding the blinkers for a horse who went gate-to-wire last time out. Meanwhile, horses like #2 Tumbarumba (8/5) and #3 Cape Trafalgar (6/1) have shown good early speed going shorter and should be in the mix early, but both horses have won coming from off the pace, so they have some versatility. The same could be said for #1 Tuscan Sky (5/2) who has closely tracked the pace in his victories and should be able to secure a similar trip from the inside rail on Saturday. A horse like #6 Steal Sunshine (4/1) might be up against it in this spot due to the lack of a blistering pace and is 0-5 winning at the distance.

#1 Tuscan Sky (5/2) – On one hand you could look at the son of Vino Rosso’s only two graded stakes attempts and think he is not cut out for this division, however that would look past the horrific trips he got in the Wood Memorial (G2) and Haskell (G1) this spring and summer. The Todd Pletcher trainee started his career a perfect 2-2, but did not beat many horses in the process before failing to deliver as a 5/2 second choice in the Wood Memorial (G2), but he broke slow that day and was taken out of his game with a bad trip. He bounced right back and crushed the competition, including eventual G1-winner Domestic Product, in the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park. Granted, that was one of the most bizarrely run races of 2024 where they stacked five-wide around the track (in a six-horse field), but he drew away with ease in the stretch. When he stepped up in the Haskell (G1) he was again cursed with a bad start where he was hopelessly behind early. Pletcher sent him to the bench for a few months and then he emerged with a solid runner-up finish in the Discovery Stakes where he earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. He has been working at Palm Beach Downs since that race and has been firing off bullets in the mornings for a trainer that rarely has his horses do that. So long as he gets away cleanly and sits a pocket trip on the inside, I think he is a serious horse with a serious future in 2025.

#4 Digital Ops (10/1) – If you’re looking for a longshot to upset the field, the son of Nyquist could be a sentimental choice. We lost Nyquist’s sire, Uncle Mo, on Thursday and seeing one of the horses connect to his legendary family line get the win would be poetic this weekend. Narrative aside, the horse has a real chance. New trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is elite in South Florida, and he can move horses forward as the former Chad Brown runner is now making his home at Gulfstream Park. Joseph Jr. puts the blinkers on a horse that already has good early speed, and he retains jockey Dylan Davis who is trekking down for the Championship Meet for the first time. Interestingly, the only two times Davis rode the horse, he won. He will need to contend with some other speed to his inside, but the blinkers should give an added boost and if he can shake clear on the front end or have the blinkers help with his concentration late, then he has a real chance to move forward. Joseph Jr. is 25% over the last five years winning after a trainer switch running in dirt graded stakes races. The horse should be fresh having not run since late October and has been sharp in his works down at Palm Meadows.

#2 Tumbarumba (8/5) – The Brian Lynch trainee is a very cool horse who is 11-17 lifetime in the exacta and won the Fred Hooper (G3) this spring at Gulfstream Park. However, he is 0-5 going two turns with two of those efforts coming on the grass. He is an outstanding miler and has been competitive going two turns in a few spots, but as the morning line favorite, I would play against him to win. He possesses good early speed but has traditionally won coming from off the pace. He has not won since the Fred Hooper (G3) in March, but he racked up four consecutive runner-up finishes in his subsequent starts, which shows that he is impossible to leave off your vertical tickets. He is coming off a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) at Del Mar in November. We have seen horses coming back from the Breeders’ Cup run fine, but only one (Howard Wolowitz) has managed to win. The combination of distance and form cycle make me look elsewhere for my top pick, but he will certainly be involved in the stretch as he seems incapable of running a bad race.

#7 Rocket Can (10/1) – There are a fair number of “ifs” that must be answered with Rocket Can for him to be competitive in this spot. If jockey Junior Alvarado can get him out more cleanly and in a tracking trip as he did over the summer, then he has a shot. The last two times out, jockey Tyler Gaffalione was aboard, and Rocket Can was much further back contending with traffic in both starts. If he can run back to some of the form, he showed as a young three-year-old going two turns then he has a chance as the winner of the 2023 Holy Bull (G3) has had success at Gulfstream Park and ran some of his best races going longer. The son of Into Mischief can run a competitive race on his best day and has run well off Lasix before, but it has been a minute since we saw the best version of him. The key will be the trip as he tends to be an honest runner when he is able to sit mid-pack but struggles when coming from too far off the pace. So long as Alvarado has him tracking from the two-path going around the first turn, he has a shot to make a run and grind away in the stretch. Do I think he is fast enough to win? Probably not, but at 10/1, he is an intriguing horse to use underneath in your vertical wagers.