Hardwicke Stakes (G2) Picks

Analysis

The final day of the Royal Ascot meet is sure to bring out the fireworks with a quartet of group stage races, with my favorite being the Hardwicke (G2). #11 Kalpana (2-1) has been a fan favorite since she won the British Champions Fillies & Mares (G1) over the course at Ascot as a three-year-old in 2024. Since then, she has knocked heads against some of the top males in the world, finishing second to Calandagan in last year’s thriller in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1). After a disappointing seventh over soft ground in Longchamp at the Arc (G1) last year, she bounced back to defend her British Champion Fillies & Mares (G1) crown over the familiar ground at Ascot. Trainer Andrew Balding gave her some time off in the winter, and she came back to beat the boys in her first race of 2026 in the Aston Park (G3) while earning a cracking 123 TimeFormUS rating, which was the second-best of her career. The fact that she now has a win against older males going the 1 ½ distance is a massive positive, and she should be in even sharper form on Saturday as she is second back from her winter break. It’s a competitive field, so you do not want to take too short a price, but she is proven over this course and knocked heads with the best in the world to prove she is a worthy favorite.

If you’re looking for prices, there are several to consider this year, with #10 West Wind Blows (15-1) being my personal favorite. The seven-year-old son of Teofilo, for trainers Simon & Ed Crisford, might not always be the winning type, but is about as reliable as they come, with 18 finishes in the top 3 in his 22 career starts. He was a neck short of Kalapana last time out, but the race to really hang your hat on was his effort three back when he was within a length of Calandagan and was well ahead of fellow Saturday entrant Giavellotto. He has never won at this distance in nine tries, and his last victory came on the synthetic, so I can understand some hesitancy using him as an upset win contender, but in those nine career starts at 1 ½ miles, he has finished second six times. He is the sort of horse you lean on in exactas and omni wagers, as he always puts in a strong effort and will do so at an honest price.

A runner who I consider an outside win contender is #1 Amiloc (10-1) for trainer Ralph Beckett, who came over to North America last year and finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). The son of Postponed needs to improve on his TimeFormUS ratings, but his form is hard to knock as he dominated his own crop as a juvenile and three-year-old, racking up five straight wins to start his career. He won the King Edward VII (G2) at Royal Ascot last year, going this distance before stepping up to face older competition. I thought he ran a solid second in the Irish St. Leger (G1) behind Al Riffa before coming over to North America for the Breeders’ Cup. The Crisford’s gave the horse six months off before he returned in the Yorkshire Cup (G2), where he ran a disappointing sixth, but that was going 1 ¾ miles, which might be a route of ground he does not prefer. Cutting him back to a better distance and spotting him in this race is a vote of confidence for a horse who is typically at odds of 2/1 or less when racing overseas. Now you’re getting 10/1 on a horse second back from the layoff who has success over this course and excels at this distance. Sign me up.

Finally, I want to highlight #6 Jan Brueghel (5-1) for the incomparable trainer-jockey duo of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. O’Brien achieved a monumental milestone this week when he won his 100th race as a trainer at Royal Ascot, which feels like a feat that will never be beaten. On Saturday, he sends out his son of Galileo, who is coming off a distant runner-up finish in the Coronation Cup (G1) to Bay City Roller last time out. While he didn’t quite measure up to some of this group last year when he was fourth behind Kalapana and others in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1), he is 2-4 winning at the 1 ½ mile distance and took the Ormonde (G3) to start his 2026 campaign before losing at Epsom. At his best, which was seen in last year’s Coronation Cup (G1), he is good enough to beat this group with a career-best 126 TimeFormUS Rating. He is a two-time Group 1 winner, so he has the class, and are you really going to bet against O’Brien and Moore to close out Royal Ascot? I’m not.