H. Allen Jerkens Stakes Picks

The H. Allen Jerkens (G1) is easily the most competitive race on Saturday’s card and one of the best betting races you will find. I routinely believe the race is the best of the entire meet as it features horses from the Kentucky Derby trail who are cutting back to the more natural sprint distance as well as those who were later-developing and have big futures in the sprint division. I firmly believe seven of the eight horses are live win contenders in this race, so giving my top four feels impossible as I know I am leaving off a horse that could end up in the winner’s circle.

I will start with the three Bob Baffert runners who are descending upon Saratoga as the trainer had a fleet of Derby prospects, but none of them proved capable of getting the Classic distance. Now, they are cutting back and look to be tough in this spot. #3 Barnes (9/2) was the most hyped horse in this year’s crop when he debuted last November at Churchill Downs as the $3.2 million son of Into Mischief had lofty expectations and was the first horse Baffert entered at Churchill Downs once his suspension from the track was lifted. The horse rolled in the San Vicente (G2) before running second to eventual Preakness (G1) and Haskell (G1) winner Journalism in the San Felipe (G2). Baffert tried the horse at two turns again in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but it was obvious that his future was going shorter. Few are better at conditioning a horse for a big race than Baffert and he has had Barnes go through some serious workouts. Curiously, regular jockey Juan Hernandez is staying in California this weekend, which means that Baffert turns to Jose Ortiz for the mount. The reason that decision is curious is because over the last five years, Jose Ortiz has only ridden for Baffert once (2020 at Belmont Park) and now gets two of his better horses on Saturday with Barnes and Hope Road in the Ballerina (G1). The horse has loads of talent and great early speed and those workouts are always scary. Meanwhile, #8 Madaket Road (6/1) was not as ballyhooed as his stablemate but has turned into a productive runner despite only winning one race. The last two times out he finished second in the Pat Day Mile (G2) and the Woody Stephens (G1). He keeps jockey John Velazquez aboard and has been working out very well in California leading up to this race, but it is still a little scary to take a maiden winner against this accomplished of a field. Finally, #2 Midland Money (8/1) is late on the scene for Baffert but popped an impressive effort in his last race where he assigned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). It was his first race in over a year after debuting as a two-year-old in June 2024. He bested N1X competition while getting Lasix, so he will have to show the same ability switching off Lasix while taking a massive class jump. That said, Baffert has this horse cranked after a 46.1 second four-furlong workout over the main track at Saratoga as he stayed in town following his August 3 win at The Spa. Jockey Joel Rosario takes over the mount and while he has a reputation for being brilliant with late runners, Rosario might be even better on a speed horse, which is what Midland Money represents.

Trainer Brad Cox has a pair of runners, including morning line favorite #1 Patch Adams (3/1) who won the Woody Stephens (G1) last time out and seems to have finally tapped into the potential he showed late last year when he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs in November. The horse is training beautifully for Cox as evidenced by the 59.1 second five-furlong workout on August 16 and has shown step improvement the last few times out. However, his last two victories have come over wet tracks and he will not get those conditions on Saturday. More significantly, he draws the rail and has the presence of both Midland Money and Barnes directly to his outside, which means jockey Luis Saez will have to be very aggressive to secure his position on the rail or risk getting shut off and shuffled back. At a short price, I am not positive he gets the same sort of dream trip he got in the last two races. However, Cox’s other horse could get that trip as #5 Verifier (4/1) has yet to taste defeat in three career starts and now finds himself as the second choice in a Grade 1. The $1 million son of Authentic for Resolute Racing has outstanding early speed but showed the ability to rate last time out in the Maxfield when he easily bested #6 Smoken Wicked (6/1) who subsequently came back to dominate the Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga. It is noteworthy that jockey Flavien Prat stays aboard, and Prat has ridden three other horses in this race previously and typically rides for Bob Baffert when he comes to New York. Cox is such a dangerous trainer, and I love the post position draw for this runner.

The final horse I’ll mention here is #4 Chancer McPatrick (5/1) for trainer Chad Brown. The two-time Grade 1 winner was so good as a two-year-old winning the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1) before disappointing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and having a poor start to the 2025 season as he failed to stretch out effectively. Brown cut him back for the Woody Stephens (G1), but he still did not show his previous brilliance, though much of that could be explained by muddy track conditions. He bounced back in a big way winning the Curlin Stakes over So Sandy and Strategic Focus, the latter of whom is the 6/1 third choice in the Travers (G1). Brown is cutting Chancer back again and this time it might work. He will get fast conditions on Saturday and clearly jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. got the most out of him during his first ride on him in the Curlin. The fact Ortiz Jr. stays aboard is also telling as Baffert regularly uses him when he comes to New York and the fact he opted to stick on Chancer likely tells you his opinion of the horse. I think he is dangerous in this spot as there should be plenty of speed and he will be able to come from off the pace.

How I’m playing it: Spread is the key word here. I’m not sure there is a more evenly matched race on the card and depending on your opinion of Thorpedo Anna/Book ‘em Danno/Sovereignty, you should be able to spread deep in this leg as there are areas to single or go skinnier. I am not thrilled with the post position for Patch Adams on the rail for a horse with good, but not elite speed, particularly when he has a horse like Midland Money directly to his outside. All three of Baffert’s horses look dangerous and I think this could be a huge spot for Chancer McPatrick and Verifire. As crazy as it might sound, I’d likely go five deep with the three Baffert runners and the two mentioned above while omitting Patch Adams from my tickets. This also feels like a race where I want to see how the board plays out before deciding the best win bet, but Midland Money looks tempting on the morning line price of 8/1.