Gulfstream Park Oaks Picks

Pace: There should be a moderate pace in the Gulfstream Parks Oaks, which curiously is the first (and only) two-turn Kentucky Oaks prep that takes place in Hallandale Beach. The primary speed in the race will come from George Weaver’s #4 Five G (8/5) and #7 Anna’s Promise (4/1) for trainer Carlos Davis. The latter drew exceptionally well given she prefers to stalk the pace and should be able to do so just sitting off the flank of Five G. Meanwhile, on the inside, you do have #3 The Queens M G (9/5) who also has good early speed but has always come from off the pace in her victories. While she does prefer to stay close to the pace, she also is a horse that is likely to sit more of a pocket trip behind the early pace and then make a move at the top of the stretch. The X-factor is #6 Cassiar (5/1) who is stretching out from sprinting and has good early speed but was content to sit mid-pack in her debut before making a strong move to win. Given the pace scenario and general track bias of Gulfstream Park, it is hard to imagine a horse winning coming from too far off the pace.

#6 Cassiar (5/1) – You rarely find trainer Shug McGaughey entering horses out of debut maiden victories into the graded stakes races. In fact, in the last five years, that has only happened seven times with McGaughey winning twice (29%). He is a trainer that is notorious for letting horses take a long time to develop and not rushing them to hit some early-career goal. However, in Cassiar, he seems to have something special. McGaughey is also not known for getting horses cranked for their debut, but I remember seeing a 48.3 second four-furlong bullet leading up to the debut for this daughter of City of Light and thinking she might be live. Indeed, she was as she came from off the pace and battled between horses at the wire to score a victory at 12/1. Now, McGaughey steps her up from facing maidens going 6 ½ furlongs with Lasix at Tampa Bay Downs to going two turns against Grade 2 competition at Gulfstream Park. McGaughey knows what it takes to win these races having just recently swept the Oaks preps at Gulfstream Park with Kathleen O. Cassiar has very good early speed and is a big filly who should appreciate going longer given she is the half-sibling to Bendoog who is graded stakes-placed going 10 furlongs. Dylan Davis hops aboard and I would not be shocked to see Dylan get this horse near the front in a comfortable tracking trip. The question will be whether he lets Luis Saez and #7 Anna’s Promise cross in front of him to sit more of a tracking trip. The other key to all of this is none of the fillies in this race have an overwhelming Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) and Cassiar’s debut 81 puts in her good standing. While we do regularly see fillies regress in their second starts, that is often when they are coming out of barns that get them cranked up for the debut and there is a natural letdown. McGaughey is the opposite, and it is reasonable for her to continue to move forward. She reminds me a bit of Fondly who won the Virginia Oaks for Graham Motion, and I am hoping she can stay close to her morning line price.

#4 Five G (8/5) – Since coming back from a disastrous debut effort, the New York-bred daughter of Vekoma has not missed the exacta for trainer George Weaver having won on multiple surfaces while showing great talent on dirt the last two times out. She already had a dominating victory at the track two back when she ran away from the field in the Cash Run Stakes that she took by nine lengths. It was promising to see her back that effort up in the Honeybee (G3) where she ran a game second to Quietside while being assigned an 84 BSF, which was only two points off her previous career best. While she tired late, she was still 3 ½ lengths clear of a horse like Muhimma for third place, so I do not view her effort as being one where she faded due to distance as much as she ran up against a better horse who simply appreciates more ground. I do not have high hopes for Vekoma offspring going nine furlongs or longer, but at a track like Gulfstream Park and going 8.5 furlongs, she should be able to get the distance. Weaver has been having a good Championship Meet and the filly should be able to get up front, though there is some question over the jockey as slated rider Tyler Gaffalione suffered a broken ankle during a paddock incident on Wednesday.

#3 The Queens M G (9/5) – On of the more controversial fillies on the Oaks Trail, The Queens M G has rarely run a bad race but also appears to have a ceiling to her talent. The two-time graded stakes winner has yet to run faster than an 80 BSF and went from August to March without a victory until scoring last time out in the Davona Dale (G2). Notably, that was a one-turn mile and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. had her in perfect position tracking the early pace when she overtook La Cara to win by 2+ lengths. While she is absolutely a proven winner, it is also hard to point to a great horse she’s beaten. The one time she faced the elite competition in her generation, in the Spinaway (G1), she was thoroughly trounced by the likes of Immersive and Quietside, yet that was on a miserable weather day over a muddy track, so excuses can be made. She largely runs her race, and I expect her to do so again, but both Five G and Cassiar are more lightly raced horses that have already shown the ability to run faster races, so I am not sure where the value is at 9/5 on the morning line for a horse like The Queens M G. Additionally, the combination of the horse being owned by C2 Racing Stables, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. is only going to drive down the price more as those connections always attract money in South Florida. I would imagine Ortiz Jr. will have her sitting a pocket trip behind the early speed, which is where she seems to do her best work, but the question will be how she takes to going longer and handling two turns. At a short price, I am willing to try and beat her.

#2 Early On (15/1) – The “other” Saffie Joseph Jr. horse intrigues me as a late-running type that you can include in your deeper vertical wagers like trifectas and superfectas. The daughter of Union Rags seems to have taken awhile to figure out after facing state-bred and restricted maiden competition to start her career and then exploded for a big win against open company at Gulfstream Park back in February. From there, she was entered in the Virginia Oaks where she was flying late and got within a ½ length of besting Fondly as she was making up loads of ground late in the race. Perhaps it is as simple as stretching this horse out as the good performances correlate with her going from sprinting to routing. The pedigree is certainly there for her to be a major player going longer, but she picks up her sixth different rider in six starts, which is rare to see for a horse that is potentially on the verge of qualifying for the starting gate of the Kentucky Oaks. She does not have much natural speed so she will have to start making her move around the turn so she does not have too much to do when she gets to the top of a short stretch. I am willing to bet that she outruns her 69 BSF in that last race, which feels like an artificially low number considering how the track was running that day and the relative novelty of a one-turn 8.5 furlong race.