GP Track Stats Week Two

GULFSTREAM PARK TRACK STATS

Throughout the Championship Meet at Gulfstream Park, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Get the latest stats updated through 12/8/24.

WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?

Track Stats provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform at different distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform to have the ideal winning trip.

Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting.

Post Time Favorite Analysis

Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 42.5% rate during the GP Championship Meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 70.0% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 11.3% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.

From a betting standpoint, doing a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.91 (-4.5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.

Average Field Size

• Dirt – 6.72
• Turf – 9.59
• Tapeta – 7.80
• Overall – 8.16

Races by Level

• Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 30.8%
• Maiden Optional Claiming – 0.0%
• Maiden Claiming race favorites – 66.7%
• Claiming race favorites – 28.6%
• Optional Claiming race favorites – 41.2%
• Handicap race favorites – 0.0%
• Allowance race favorites – 0.0%
• Stakes race favorites – 60.0%

Races by Surface and Distance

• Dirt sprint favorites – 53.8%
• Dirt one-turn mile favorites – 33.3%
• Dirt route favorites – 50.0%
• Turf sprint favorites – 50.0%
• Turf route favorites – 52.4%
• Tapeta sprint favorites – 35.0%
• Tapeta route favorites – 26.7%

Winning Trips Analysis

Dirt Sprint Winners (n=13)

• 46.2% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 53.8% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt One-Turn Mile Winners (n=3)

• 100% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Dirt Two-Turn Winners (n=2)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 0.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 50.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Sprint Winners (n=6)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 33.3% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 16.7% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Turf Route Winners (n=21)

• 28.6% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 47.6% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 23.8% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Tapeta Sprint Winners (n=20)

• 50.0% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 45.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 5.0% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Tapeta Route Winners (n=15)

• 13.3% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
• 40.0% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
• 46.7% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.

Shipper Analysis

As Gulfstream Park’s Championship Meet is one that attracts horses from around the country, Track Stats will also be providing analysis of where winners during the Championship Meet ran their last race to better inform bettors of any shipping trends that might exist.