Go For Wand Picks

Pace makes the race and #3 Weigh the Risks (even) stands out as the dominant speed in this mile long race as the daughter of Mendelssohn stretches back out for trainer Chad Brown. She has won four of her last five races dating back to November 2024 when Brown permanently switched her from turf to dirt racing. She easily won a pair of optional claiming races before finishing second in the Heavenly Prize Stakes to Bernietakescharge who won in gate-to-wire fashion. She went to the bench for five months and returned to crush $100,000 optional claiming company at Saratoga before capturing her first stakes win last time out in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes when she tracked the early pace and pulled away. Her 101 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) two races back might be an anomaly, but her other figures are good enough to win here. More importantly, jockey Manny Franco should be aggressive on the front end as there is no other significant early speed. Weigh the Risks has won gate-to-wire before and should be able to divvy out the fractions she wants as she goes back to running a mile. She will be a short price but feels like a single in the Late Pick 5 sequence.

Behind her comes an intriguing host of challengers. I really wanted to pick #2 Scalable (4/1) as my top selection as I have always been a fan of the Todd Pletcher trainee who is a Grade 3 winner. However, she simply gives herself too much to do in a race like this where there is going to be minimal pace. I do believe she is best at a one-turn mile as she is broke her maiden in this configuration and she gets more pace to run at compared to her two turn efforts. However, the Pumpkin Pie Stakes last time out is a prime example of why it is hard to pick her on top as she broke last and spotted the field 10 lengths before making up ground to finish third by less than two lengths. I do not believe she will get the same fractions and Weigh the Risks will be able to control things up front and prevent Scalable’s big late kick from being a factor. If jockey Kendrick Carmouche can get a little more speed out of her early and she is only five or six lengths back at first call, then perhaps she has a chance for the upset. I believe she represents the best value in the field if you are trying to best the heavy favorite.

Trainer Horacio De Paz has been doing well this year winning at a 17% clip and has always been a trainer for whom I have a lot of respect. #6 Stonewall Star (5/2) is a New York-bred coming of a runner-up effort in the Iroquois Stakes, but that was her first start in 10 months, and she has every opportunity to move forward coming off a career-best 90 BSF. The issue is that her recent efforts against open company have not gone well. Even if we draw a line through last year’s Go For Wand (G3) where she stumbled badly and was out of the race as soon as it started, she last won against open company in February 2023 at Laurel Park. Since then, she has been 0-6 and lost those races by a combined 60 ¼ lengths. Granted, she is in the best form of her career. She has good early speed and outside position, so she might end up pressing Weigh the Risks, particularly going one mile as she has the necessary speed to go to the front sprinting. However, she has had issues at the start in the past and that has often prevented her from getting ideal early position. A short field and a modest pace will be her friend, but the company could prove to be a challenge.