Glen Cove Stakes Picks

Analysis: A full and competitive field of three-year-old turf sprinting fillies highlights Saturday’s card at Belmont at the Big A in the Glen Cove (G3). Trainer George Weaver is a master of turf sprints, which is why I’m zeroing in on #5 Pop Idol (4/1) as my top choice. Over the last five years he has won at a 20% clip in turf sprint stakes races, and he seems to have a constant stream of new faces popping on the scene. Pop Idol is sired by Maclean’s Music, which will provide the filly with all the speed she needs as she does her best work up front, through she has shown during her career that she can come from off the pace to pass horses. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez hops back aboard as he previously rode the filly to a victory in the Galway Stakes at Saratoga in August in gate-to-wire fashion at the price of 17/1. Her versatility paired with the connections provides me confidence that she can bounce back after a poor showing as the favorite in the Zadracarta Stakes at Woodbine last time out. Woodbine turf can produce some anomalous results and while she has won at the track before, it was over the all-weather surface. Additionally, she did not get the best trip as she was being pressed on the inside to strong fractions going five furlongs. I believe she is at her best going between 5 ½ and six furlongs, which she will get on Saturday.

The most consistent runner in this group is #2 Love Cervere (5/2) for trainer Miguel Clement who has had phenomenal success since taking over for his late father Christophe this summer. Love Cervere is coming off an allowance loss at Kentucky Downs where she finished second by less than a length but showed off a fantastic turn of foot as she made up significant ground from the back of the field. I am always cautious how horses return after racing at Kentucky Downs as it is an unusual track that can take some time to bounce back from prior to their next start. It’s notable that Clement gave her an extra week to recover as she only recorded one workout since her September 6 race leading up to Saturday. She can win a few ways, which is what makes her dangerous as she can close from the back of the field or track the pace as she did three back at Woodbine while going 6 ½ furlongs. While she is a perfect 2-2 and the distance, both of which have come over the Aqueduct turf course, she is getting a new rider as Manny Franco takes over for Hall of Famer Joel Rosario. Franco rode her last year at Gulfstream Parks to a fifth-place finish, but it was in a two-turn race, which is not where she is at her best. She is a hard filly to keep off your tickets, but the recent Kentucky Downs race is enough for me to take a momentary pause from using her as my top selection.

Underneath, I think you can get creative, and I love the morning line value in #3 Flat Out Time (10/1) who is a graded stakes-placed sprinter on the dirt and trying turf for the first time. There is plenty of pedigree to suggest she can handle the new surface as she is sired by Not This Time, who is producing 17% winners in turf sprints, and who himself was sired by turf legend Giant’s Causeway. There is not as much turf pedigree on the dam side, but her second dam is by Street Sense, so you figure there is at least some ability to get the grass. More importantly, the fact trainer George Weaver opted to move her to the turf is the most notable factor as she was a solid performer on the dirt. She broke her maiden in debut at Fonner Park in a $10,000 maiden special weight race before coming to Weaver and being overmatched at Churchill Downs in her second start. However, she bounced back and won her next start at Delaware Park before finishing third in the Prioress (G3) to a filly, Praying, who came back to win the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) at Keeneland last weekend. Weaver worked her over the turf back in September after her last start, so he must have seen something in that work to make him feel that her future was on the grass. She is outside value as a 10/1 wildcard.

Finally, I like the other Clement runner, #10 Annascaul (5/1) as well as she is coming out of winning a nice allowance race against New York-bred runners last time out at Saratoga. She does not win as much as you’d like to see against open company, but she’s always competitive having finished second by less than a new in the Stewart Manor as a juvenile and then second to Roja in the Blue Sparkler at Monmouth Park. She has good speed and the outside post position with jockey Junior Alvarado aboard should help her get the idea trip. She might be a hard filly to include in your Late Pick 5 ticket but should absolutely be included in your vertical exotics. Perhaps #4 Me Governor (6/1) would be the better upset selection, but I have a harder time trusting that one to run in the money than I do Annascaul.