Gazelle Stakes Picks

The Grade 3 Gazelle is highlighted by the 2nd-place finisher of the G2 Demoiselle here at the Big A back in December, Ballerina d’Oro. I’ve been patiently waiting to see this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro stretch back out to the 1 1/8 distance, as I believe the way she was closing on Muhimma in the Demoiselle was quite impressive. After Muhimma faced slight pressure from Liam in the Dust, she was well clear coming around the second turn and loose up front. No one was catching that filly that day. However, it is very notable that Ballerina d’Oro was the only filly able to close into the soft fractions Muhimma set, as she came surging late, only to get beat by a length.

Top Pick: Originally, I was especially pleased to see that the 8-Liam in the Dust would be there to give 2-Ballerina d’Oro (1-1) some pace to close into. Now that she is a scratch, we are relying on the 3-Vanilla Sundae, who broke her maiden last time out in gate-to-wire fashion, as well as the 1-Late Nite Call, whose only chance is to send from the rail, to set those early fractions. I don’t expect those fractions to be fast at all, but I do not believe it will make a difference for my top pick, 2-Ballerina d’Oro, anyways. I am willing to toss the effort in the Davona Dale, as she was up against the pace, the track, and the fact that her strong suit is not a one-turn mile. Now, she gets to return to two turns and stretch back out to what her pedigree and running style suggest is the most ideal distance for her. I believe she will get the job done on Saturday, and she is a strong single on my Late Pick 5 ticket.

Underneath: Although 2-Ballerina d’Oro outclasses this field and is your most likely winner, she is even money on the morning line. I have my eye on a couple of other fillies that I will look to get some value with by playing them underneath.

• 4-Early On (6-1): The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee was able to run by Anonima and rally up for 2nd in the Virginia Oaks last time out, nearly closing on the winner, Fondly. Notably, she broke her maiden around two turns at Gulfstream Park and earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 71 for that effort, while the Virginia Oaks was a one-turn 1 1/16. She got into her best stride in the late stages of the Virginia Oaks, and I see her improving with the return to two turns on Saturday. This is another filly who doesn’t need much pace in front of her, and I expect her to be more forwardly placed than we saw last time out, as she surely won’t want to be closing with Ballerina d’Oro.
• 7-Pure Beauty (9/2): The most intriguing of the field, the Shug McGaughey trainee found a new turn of foot last time out when she improved by 23 Beyer Speed Figure points off her maiden win after stretching out to 1 1/16 in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. She finished third that day, but it doesn’t hurt to see that the winner of that race, Anna’s Promise, ran 2nd to Five G in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her next start. Although this is her first time in stakes company, her classy pedigree, world-class trainer, and the likelihood of her improving signal to me that she will hold her own against this field.
• 3-Vanilla Sundae (6-1): I see her as a competitive entry based on her 79 Beyer Speed Figure last time out, where she broke her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion by almost 16 lengths. The daughter of Gun Runner ran into an off track in both of her first two starts, and once she returned for that third start over a fast track, we saw a huge improvement from her. She is represented by top connections and has good enough speed to put her in a more favorable position than some others in this field.

Are you playing against the even-money morning line favorite, Ballerina d’Oro? Reach out on @nyrabets to give me your take on whether you believe she will tower over this field, or if the lack of speed in the race could present a challenge for her.