Fountain of Youth Picks

Pace: Expect a strong early pace in a very fascinating renewal of the Fountain of Youth (G2). There are three horses stretching out from sprinting and a total of five horses trying two turns for the first time, which often means several of those runners are going to be forwardly placed. The fastest of the group might be Saffie Joseph’s #7 Neoequos with Irad Ortiz Jr. up on the mount as the horse is coming out of winning a six-furlong sprint in gate-to-wire fashion. Directly to his inside, #6 River Thames with jockey John Velazquez aboard also possesses outstanding speed, but has shown the ability to sit off the pace in his two previous victories. On the inside, #1 Gate to Wire is trying routing for the first time and even though he tends to do his best running at a target, jockey Dylan Davis might be aggressive to get him forward position from the rail and let the horse’s natural speed take him toward the front. Horses like #4 McKellen and #5 Solid Left have decent early speed, but it is hard to factor them into the pace scenario at this point as they are both cross entered in other races. While there is plenty of speed, Gulfstream Park tends to be a speed favoring track, which means horses have a better chance of being able to finish a race off up front despite stretching out in distance.

#3 Burnham Square – When I write these analyses and make my Top 4 selections there are times when the chasm between my top selection and the rest of the runners is as wide as the Grand Canyon. There are other times when the separation between my top selections is as thin as a razor blade. My selections in the Fountain of Youth are the latter as you could make a compelling case for and against each of the top three choices. From a betting standpoint, you hate to spread three deep using the top three betting interests, so in your Late Pick 5 tickets you could be left with a difficult choice, though many will likely single Mindframe in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), so that could make your ticket easier to construct. However, I do not want to turn this analysis of Burnham Square into a general approach to betting. The Ian Wilkes trainee has gotten faster in every start and is coming off an impressive win in the Holy Bull (G3) over Tappan Street, Ferocious, and others. It was such a professional effort and showed that he could come from off the pace after winning in gate-to-wire fashion for his maiden victory. The pedigree is not overwhelming, but there is enough there to suggest that he can replicate his effort in the Holy Bull (G3) while running at the same distance. I have questions about whether he can get 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May, but we are not running that race on Saturday. In some ways, he has the fewest questions of the top three competitors. He is not coming off a long layoff and he has won going two turns off Lasix. He might be the least “sexy” option as River Thames has the more dazzling speed figures and Bill Mott’s Sovereignty has been pegged for quite awhile as a top Kentucky Derby contender. It will be fascinating to see what the public does with betting but remember that last week we saw Lonnie Briley take down Bob Baffert, Mark Casse, and Steve Asmussen in the Rebel (G2) with Coal Battle, so what says Ian Wilkes can’t beat Todd Pletcher and Bill Mott. Burnham Square has versatility, likes the track, and is tested going today’s distance against graded stakes competition.

#6 River Thames – We have a New York-bred that is skipping the Gotham (G3)! I joke, but it is notable that Todd Pletcher’s son of MacLean’s Music is being thrown into the deep end of the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep pool down at Gulfstream Park. The undefeated colt has done nothing but impress under the ride of jockey John Velazquez, who forgoes a trip to California to ride Locked in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) in favor of staying in South Florida to ride River Thames, among others. The horse has outstanding early speed, but the patience to sit off the pace and no jockey is better at getting inexperienced horses to relax than Velazquez who makes a habit out of getting an easy lead, which often allows them to get a longer distance. He will have a tough time with that Saturday as Irad Ortiz Jr. is likely to send hard with Neoequos, which complicates things as he will try to cross in front of River Thames and Velazquez in the very quick run-up to the first turn at Gulfstream Park. I believe this horse to be talented, but I do have questions about the distance as MacLean’s Music is a significantly more productive dirt sprint sire and there is virtually all sprint influence in the immediate family of the dam. He will be switching off Lasix, which is a curious move for Pletcher over the last five years. During that time, he is 8-52 (15%) switching 3-year-olds off Lasix in graded stakes dirt sprints while boasting a $3.86 ROI that is almost entirely propped up by Bourbonic winning the Wood Memorial at 72/1. The problem with River Thames from a betting standpoint is that I believe he could end up being the post time favorite and I am not willing to take a short price on a horse that has never run two turns and never run without Lasix. The talent is there, but there are questions that remain to be answered. At what price do you want to find out?

#2 Sovereignty – The regally-bred son of Into Mischief out of an unraced Bernadini mare stamped himself as a major competitor on the Kentucky Derby (G1) trail last October when he crushed the field in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. It was an impressive effort not only because of the location under the Twin Spires and the distance of handling two turns, but also because it was his maiden breaking performance having come up short in debut against the likes of Tip Top Thomas, Rookie Card, and Keewaydin and then barely falling short to Praetor second time out. Both of those races were one turn, but he appeared to relish the extra ground in his first two-turn test besting a field that included Sandman and Tiztastic who have run well against graded stakes company since that race. The big question for Sovereignty is whether trainer Bill Mott has him ready to fire a big effort on Saturday. The horse had a two-month break after the Street Sense (G3) and then returned to the work tab on Christmas Eve before getting a three week break and returning to workout on January 15. At that point he had another two weeks off before returning to regular weekly workouts the last three weeks. Giving horses a little extra time in between works when they first return to training is a fairly common practice, but we have seen horses like Ferocious and East Avenue fail to fire as heavy favorites coming off the bench in their first effort in 2025. I know Sovereignty can handle the distance, I know he can run off Lasix, and out of this field he is the horse I would most want to bet for the Kentucky Derby (G1), but that does not mean he is the best bet, or most likely winner, on Saturday.

#1 Gate to Wire – While I do not see much separation among the top three choices, I do believe the top three are firmly entrenched and there are some serious questions for the rest of the field to answer. However, trainer Todd Pletcher’s other entry, Gate to Wire, is an interesting horse that might be an honest price because of the amount of betting attention the top three choices will take. The son of Munnings started out sprinting on the turf, which is typically not a great sign for a future Kentucky Derby (G1) hopeful, but after winning in debut and running second to Mentee in the Futurity (G3), he ran a poor race at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). Pletcher sent him to the bench for two months before bringing him back into a $75,000 optional claimer sprinting on the Tapeta, which is not exactly an overwhelming vote of confidence for his future. However, then Pletcher switched surfaces, and the horse popped in the Swale Stakes going seven furlongs and dominating a strung-out field by five easy lengths while earning a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. Pletcher now steps the horse up to two turns and quickly throws him on the Derby Trail. I do not love the horse’s pedigree with Munnings as a sprint influence up top and while there is some distance influence underneath, it is also largely turf. However, pedigree can only take you so far as the horse clearly prefers dirt despite some success on the grass. Unlike many Pletcher runners, this is one that did not have massive expectations as he was a $95,000 purchase who has already earned more than double that on the track. He has good early speed but has more of a tracking running style. Jockey Dylan Davis will have to figure out how aggressive he wants to be from the rail and whether he tries to get to the front with a horse stretching out for the first time or if he tries to sit in the pocket to let the horse come from off the pace. At Gulfstream Park, horses can stretch out and I view Gate to Wire as a potential underneath play who should at least provide a little value in your vertical wagers.