Fayette Stakes Picks

Analysis: While all eyes might already be focused on Del Mar for next week’s Breeders’ Cup, Keeneland’s Closing Day features a wonderful renewal of the Fayette (G3) with a deep group of challengers. A horse that I have liked since the winter is #10 Gosger (9/2) for trainer Brendan Walsh who has kept up his hot start at the Keeneland Fall Meet by winning 24% of his entries. The son of Nyquist won the Lexington (G3) over this track back in April and then ran back-to-back massive races against Journalism in the Preakness (G1) and Haskell (G1) but lost them both by a combined length. He was showing great progression and was assigned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in his Haskell (G1) effort. However, he took a step back in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) where he stumbled at the break and was caught wide in the first turn. He ultimately faded to sixth and I believe it was more a culmination of those previous efforts catching up with him. What encourages me on Saturday is that Walsh brings him back roughly a month later for this race after carefully managing him over the spring and summer as he had over two months off between his Preakness (G1) and Haskell (G1) runs and then another two months off prior to the Pennsylvania Derby (G1). While he is facing older horses for the first time, he fits in this group, possesses good early speed, and has shown the ability to handle the distance. Interestingly enough, jockey Luis Saez opts to remain aboard Gosger despite riding morning line favorite Bracket Buster the last two times out. I love Gosger’s pedigree and believe he will enjoy getting back to the track where he last ended up in the winner’s circle.

It’s hard not to love #3 Bracket Buster (3/1) who popped on the radar this summer when he was a 17/1 afterthought in the Travers (G1) but proved to be second-best, albeit a distant second-best, to Sovereignty. Victoria Oliver’s horse was assigned a 102 BSF for his run that day at Saratoga and backed it up with an impressive win in the Oklahoma Derby (G3) next time out as he was assigned a 100. The promising part of the Oklahoma Derby (G3) victory is that has already come back with good results as third-place finisher Mister Omaha came back to win the Oklahoma Classics Cup last week and ran back to nearly the same BSF he was assigned in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Additionally, runner-up Iron Dome, a New York bred, is the morning line favorite in Saturday’s Empire Classic at Belmont at the Big A. While Vekoma’s have done better sprinting, Bracket Buster has shown he can handle the distance. While he loses jockey Luis Saez on Saturday, he picks up Hall of Famer John Velazquez who rode him to a fourth-place finish in the Haskell (G1) three races back. Velazquez also rode him for his maiden breaking victory at Keeneland last fall. He is another three-year-old facing older competition for the first time but is moving in the right direction and training lights out for Oliver leading up to Saturday.

The biggest money earner in the field is #11 Hit Show (6/1) for trainer Brad Cox who, thanks to his victory in the Dubai World Cup (G1), has racked up over $8 million in winnings. The five-year-old son of Candy Ride was always a solid horse, but seemed more the type of rack up victories against Grade 2 and Grade 3 competition rather than beating the best in the world. Prior to that Dubai World Cup (G1) victory he lost his three career Grade 1 attempts by over 20 lengths, but had won five Grade 2 or Grade 3 races. In many ways, he reminded me of a horse like Skippylongstocking. The Dubai World Cup (G1) victory aside, Hit Show came back to finish a distant fifth in the Stephen Foster (G1), but you can excuse that effort as his first race back in North America. Next time out, he looked much sharper winning the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes at Mountaineer over an average field. He looked overmatched last time out at Churchill Downs when he finished fourth in the Lukas Classic, but he also seemed out of elements prior to the race and got off to a poor start. On Saturday, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over for Florent Geroux and that is never a bad thing. Expect Ortiz Jr., who is winning 20% of his mounts in his first fall with his tack in Kentucky, to get him out of the gate in good order and find a way to save ground from the outside. He fits in this field in terms of class and speed figures so long as he runs back to his better efforts. He won this race in 2024, and it feels like he could bounce back from that Lukas Classic (G2) effort with a new jockey better trip.

Finally, I’m fading #9 Dragoon Guard (7/2) who is a perfectly nice horse, but also has done his best work on Lasix, which he will not get on Saturday. I also believe he is at his best when he gets an easy lead, which might not be the case on Saturday as there are several other horses with equal or superior early speed entered in the race. As a result, I’ll roll the dice with #6 Rattle N Roll (12/1), a horse I have notoriously never been on the right side of throughout his career. The Kenny McPeek runner who is a six-year-old son of Connect, can string together solid efforts as he did back in 2023, but then his form can turn sour for a time before he gets back into form. The horse spent the first half of 2025 overseas as he won the Holy Mosque Cup (G3) in Saudi Arabia before finishing fifth in the Saudi Cup (G1) behind horses like Forever Young and Romantic Warrior. He followed that up with an eighth-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) some eight lengths behind Hit Show. McPeek brought him back stateside and he finished sixth in the Lukas Classic, but much like Hit Show’s disappointing effort in the Stephen Foster (G1), you can excuse it as it was the first race back from running overseas. Remember, Hit Show came back to win his next start, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see McPeek’s horse run a much better effort on Saturday as he is working out fantastically in the morning as evidenced by his 59.4 second bullet five-furlong workout on October 18, which was first of 66. I’m unlikely to use the horse as a win bet, but will be including him underneath.