Fantasy Stakes Picks

This week’s 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep is one of my favorite prep races: the Fantasy (G2). This race has been dominated by some personal favorite fillies of mine, such as Rachel Alexandra, who holds the record for the largest margin of victory at 8 ¾ lengths, Thorpedo Anna, and Wet Paint. This year, I am banking on a filly I’ve grown quite fond of since the summer, who I believe can put on a dominant performance like we saw last year.

Pace:
Although there are a few front-running fillies in this race, I wouldn’t expect a wicked fast pace. Your morning-line favorite, #7 Simply Joking (8-5), won the Silverbulletday in gate-to-wire fashion. Notably, she broke last on debut and was able to close into quick fractions to get the win. With minimal speed besides #9 Princess Aliyah (12-1) and #5 Quietside (2-1), I expect Simply Joking to get the lead, with Quietside tracking right off her. Quietside has not only gotten better with every start, but she has also gotten faster, putting in another quick 5F bullet on March 16th—similar to what we saw before her win in the Honeybee (G3). I expect Quietside to breathe down Simply Joking’s neck the entire way and do not see Simply Joking getting the distance after facing pressure from Quietside. It’s also notable that #1 Take Charge Milady is a filly who has flashed some speed, especially in her maiden-breaking race, and is certainly going to be more forwardly placed, breaking from the 1 hole, which is in contrast to her trip in the Honeybee (G3), where she had an unfortunate trip.

Top Pick:
As mentioned, #5 Quietside (2-1) is a filly who is continuing to improve. We saw her put the pieces together in the Honeybee (G3) and post a career-high 86 Beyer Speed Figure. She was piloted to victory by Jose Ortiz, who will now ride her back for a second time. I believe this horse is fast enough to get the lead in this race and wouldn’t be too concerned if that’s how it plays out. However, I do see her stalking the pace right off Simply Joking or #9 Princess Aliyah, who draws to their outside and ran her best races in her last two starts when she was up on the pace. I am so confident in Quietside that I am likely to single her in the sequence. When comparing the class of the fields she has faced to the others in this race, there is a notable difference. Additionally, she clearly loves Oaklawn Park and has a good chance of replicating the trip we saw in her last start.

Underneath:
#1 Take Charge Milady (6-1) is a filly you have to take seriously in this spot. She showed talent in her maiden-breaking race and backed it up with a solid performance in the Honeybee (G3). I trust jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who piloted last year’s winner, to get this filly out of the gate cleanly and in a good position to be competitive. Prior to her last start, she was improving with every race and is McPeek’s only entry in this significant Oaks prep. Both her wins came over this track and distance, which is similar to another entry I’m interested in using in deeper exotics. #9 Princess Aliyah, a D. Wayne Lukas trainee, broke her maiden last time out in her fifth start and posted a 79 Beyer Speed Figure. She was piloted by Nick Juarez for the first time that day, and he will ride her back here. She is improving with every start and presents a lot of upside at her morning-line odds of 12-1. She has one of the best pedigrees I’ve ever seen—she is the half-sibling to Alabama (G1) winner Eskimo Kisses, and her second dam is none other than Winning Colors, who The Coach trained to victory against the boys in the Kentucky Derby (G1). There are some questions with her now switching off Lasix, but she has the pedigree, and if she improves off her last effort, that puts her up to par with most of the fillies in this race. Lastly, I’ve included #7 Simply Joking in fourth, as I see the potential of her speed putting her in a good enough position to at least hit the board. Although I believe Quietside will be able to put her away, Simply Joking is a lightly raced filly who clearly has potential based on what we’ve seen so far.

Do you agree that Quietside has the potential to dominate this field on Saturday? Or, if you are a Simply Joking believer, reach out on @nyrabets and tell me how you see her getting the win.