Fair Grounds Oaks Picks

Good Cheer is back and means business in the first 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep at Fair Grounds this Saturday!

Pace: The potentially fastest horse in the race, and the X-Factor, is the #3 Ahava. She is the half-sister to MGSW and sprinter Vahva, who is also trained by Cherie DeVaux. Ahava broke her maiden on debut in gate-to-wire fashion, where she ran a fast opening quarter, got some breathing room, and maintained her distance from the field to win by a length and a half. The pace scenario will depend on whether they plan to send her or if she intends to sit off a couple and wait to make her run. Since she is stretching out for the first time and has some distance questions due to her predominantly sprinting female family, I imagine she will be up on the front end alongside the #5 Her Laugh, with the nearby second group being #2 Gowells Delight and possibly the #1 Girl Math, who has sat closer to the pace in her dirt routes as a 2-year-old and is switching back to the dirt for the first time since. The #8 Secret Faith is cross-entered on Saturday but is projected to run here and will definitely be a major pace presence if so, alongside the #5 Her Laugh and the #3 Ahava.

Top Pick: We last saw #7 Good Cheer (4-5) win the Rachel Alexandra (G2) by 6 ¼ lengths, where she faced three other runners who notably did everything in their power to prevent her from winning. She was up against the pace dynamics, got boxed in on the rail, and still got away the second she found room and won dominantly. She earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 89 for that effort, following her previous three straight 86 Beyer Speed Figures. Not one horse in this group has put together back-to-back efforts of that level, and against the same caliber of fillies she has faced. She is a strong single for me in the Late Pick 5 sequence, and I expect her to sit off the front runners and make one run to win by however much she wants. Besides what you can see on paper, she is a highly intelligent and competitive filly who eyes down and sizes up her competition in the paddock. She is the #1 filly on my Top 10 list for the Oaks, and the Medaglia d’Oro / Street Sense sire line cross is ideal for getting the 1 1/8 Oaks distance against top-class fillies. The most exciting part about Good Cheer’s future is that I believe she still hasn’t been asked for her best. As for this Saturday, we may see a more exciting performance than we saw last time out, as she is likely to have more pace in front of her and will be in a fuller field.

Underneath: The #9 Quickick (10-1) is the filly I am most interested in using underneath. I liked her as a 2-year-old and was impressed by the ground she made up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) back in November. She went to the bench for nearly four months and returned for the Honeybee (G3), where the pace dynamics played in favor of front runners like Quietside and Five G, and she was able to make up some ground to finish 5th behind four horses who were all forwardly placed. As that was her first attempt off the layoff, I see the potential for improvement here, and the late-running daughter of McKinzie will appreciate Fair Grounds’ long stretch. She also picks up jockey Tyler Gaffalione for the first time and can potentially present some value come post-time underneath your heavy favorite. As I see her being the one to come late and close into the pace behind Good Cheer, I see the potential of front runners like the #5 Her Laugh (12-1) and the #2 Gowells Delight (8-1) getting themselves into the race early and being able to sustain their run to take a piece. I prefer and trust those two front runners as opposed to the #3 Vahva, who has some questions to answer stretching out for the first time and not only facing winners but facing winners who have been battle-tested like these fillies, as well as the #8 Secret Faith, whose listed stakes wins are up against Louisiana-bred state company and also stretches out for the first time.

Do you see the dominant Brad Cox trainee Good Cheer winning easily on Saturday, or do you see anyone in here taking a big step up? If you’re like me and you’re not trying to beat Good Cheer, let me know who you are playing underneath on @nyrabets.