Diana Stakes (G1) Picks

Pace

There are some intriguing dynamics when it comes to the pace of this year’s Diana (G1). On the early pace figures, one might assume #6 Segesta (3-1) is the fastest of the group, but she also seems to prefer to run at a target and draws to the outside of her stablemate #4 Portfolio Duration (5-2) who is coming off a gate-to-wire victory last time out in the New York (G1). The X-factor is #5 Five G (20-1) who used to show very good early speed on dirt but has not really been the same since coming back from an extensive layoff in late 2025. She is also cross entered in a race at Monmouth Park on Saturday where she fits better against the rest of the field, so it is hard to trust that she will be a factor. The inner turf course has played well to speed, but despite common belief, we have seen horses coming from well off the pace to win over the inner turf course as well.

Analysis

There are three significant win threats on Saturday, and I find myself leaning toward #4 Portfolio Duration (5-2) who has the most upside potential for trainer Chad Brown. Brown is seeking to win the Diana (G1) for the record 11th time, and it can be a challenge to determine which if his impressive fleet of older fillies and mares will get the job done. Portfolio Duration is the most lightly raced horse in the field, and she captured her first Grade 1 last time out in the New York (G1). The daughter of Night of Thunder always felt like a supremely talented horse for Brown as she nearly won in debut but then went to the bench for 10 months before returning to romp against maiden and allowance fields at Tampa Bay Downs. From there, Brown stepped her up and she barely lost the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day before getting her Grade 1 last time out. She has improved on her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) in each career start and has shown versatility in her running style. Jockey Manny Franco takes over the mount from Flavien Prat who will be riding at Monmouth Park on Saturday, but it’s encouraging that she’s won with three different jockeys aboard. Franco is aggressive and might try to steal it on the front end as Prat did last time out as there is no threating speed to his inside and Segesta seems to prefer to run at a target. She can handle the distance and has more than enough stamina to kick home.

I believe #6 Segesta (3-1) is very dangerous on Saturday as she is mare who has been in great form for the last year and has not finished out of the money since June 2025. She is a two-time Grade 1 winner, most recently taking the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland in a dead heat with Expensive Queen. She came back to finish third in the Just A Game (G1) during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival at Saratoga last month and is stretching back out to nine furlongs on Saturday. She has two wins at the distance previously but is still looking for her first win at Saratoga. Jockey Dylan Davis takes over the mount from Flavien Prat and while she has more early foot than her stablemate, Davis is not always the aggressive type to put a horse on the lead. In this case, that might work in his favor, as the daughter of Ghostzapper does her best running at a target while closely tracking the pace. She should get an ideal trip sitting just off Portfolio Duration while getting first run at the leader turning for home. She has three or four races that are fast enough on her BSFs to win this spot and has shown no signs at regression. The pace should be soft enough to ensure she can get the distance, and it is telling that Davis lands on her over #1 Dynamic Pricing (6-1) who he has previously ridden to victory in a Grade 1 race last year.

Your morning line favorite is #5 Kathynmarissa (2-1) who is the daughter of American Pharoah and is the Triple Crown winner’s the top North American money earner to boot. The five-year-old came off the bench to score a significant victory in the Modesty (G3) on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs where she ran down heavy favorite Gezora. However, it might be fair to question how good that group was that she beat as Gezora was awful last time out in the New York (G1) and third-place finisher Proctor Street is allergic to getting her picture taken lately. The rest of the field has not stood out too much in their subsequent starts as Whiskey Decision burned money as the favorite next time out and Stylish Sue faded badly against listed stakes company in her next run. The only horse to come back with a victory was Dona Clota who won a Grade 3 at Delaware Park over an average field. All of this to say, perhaps that victory on Oaks Day is a little dressed up. She came back to run third in the New York (G1), but it’s possible the slight cutback to nine furlongs will make all the difference as she is a perfect 3-3 going 1 1/8 miles. The other major plus is that jockey Jose Ortiz remains aboard. Ortiz is one of the few top jockeys not headed down to the New Jersey shore on Saturday and gives her a significant edge against this field. He has won 25% of his mounts during the first seven days of the Saratoga meet and been riding lights out for everyone. She’s been training well and is certainly talented, but at a short price, I am willing to try to beat her as my top selection, based off the fact she has not beaten an overwhelming group to this point and might have fired her best race off the bench.

Finally, I want to touch on #2 Cathedral (6-1) who is coming over from Europe to face a very nice group of domestic runners. While the European shippers have done well to this point during the Saratoga meet, she does not strike me as one that you have to fear at the windows. Her lone victory in 11 career efforts was in debuting while sprinting six furlongs over an all-weather surface. She is 0-9 in her career on the turf with only three runner-up efforts. Yes, she’s been facing some toughies in Europe, but let’s not overstate things. She finished fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) while earning a 101 BSF, but it was a rather unthreatening fourth and she barely passed a single horse during the race. Her race two back in the Dahlia (G2) is probably good enough to compete, but her inability to get the job done, even against lesser company at times, is a concern. If she were 8-1 or 10-1, I think those were fairer odds than her 6-1 morning line price, which I believe is accurate based on how people bet European runners in North America. It’s also intriguing to me that jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount. Santana Jr. is a good jockey who has scored a few nice wins during the early portion of the Saratoga meet but rarely picks up the mount on a European shipper. I won’t argue with you if you want to use this runner deeper underneath in trifectas or supers, but I would caution you against using her in your horizontal wagers on Saturday.