Diana Stakes Picks

Overview: A short, but talented field highlights this year’s renewal of the Diana (G1) with the headliner #1 She Feels Pretty (even) looking for her fifth straight victory and fifth Grade 1 of her career. There is no doubt the Cherie DeVaux trainee is the deserving favorite, but while her accomplishments might tower over the field, her speed figures do not. Additionally, she has found herself facing weaker fields than what she is facing on Saturday, which seems like the perfect time to play against her. Trainer Chad Brown has a pair of runners in the form of #4 Excellent Truth (5/2) and #5 Dynamic Pricing (9/2). The tendency bettors display is to play “the other Chad” that is not bet as hard at the windows. Additionally, #6 Be Your Best (6/1) has appeared to turn the corner since moving to the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn as she is coming off a victory in the Gamely (G1) and has won four out of five.

#4 Excellent Truth (5/2) – The Group 3 winner in Europe has faced top competition throughout her career including a runner-up finish in the Rothschild (G1) in Deauville where she ran prior to coming over to North America and being placed in the barn of Chad Brown. Since coming to North America, the daughter of Cotal Glory has a pair of runner-up finishes by less than a length. She got unlucky in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland where she was much the best, but had a terrible trip being steadied and shut off. Last time out, she had a better trip, but it was over a yielding turf course at Saratoga. While the horse has won over softer ground overseas, it’s possible she could not have her typical acceleration over the going that day. On Saturday, she is stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time since 2023 so it will be interesting to see if jockey Flavien Prat will try to be aggressive with her in the early stages seeing as she has some early speed from going mile. Additionally, the inner turf course has played very well to early inside speed, so positioning going into the first turn could be critical if the course is playing the same way come Saturday. The Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) from the last two starts put her on par with She Feels Pretty and it is hard to argue that anyone is riding better than Flavien Prat over the last few weeks. She has been your betting favorite in both North American starts, but that will not be the case this weekend, so this might be the time to bet her given as she’ll be second choice.

#1 She Feels Pretty (even) – The winner of seven of 10 career starts simple does not run a bad race having never missed the board with her three losses coming by less than a combined 1 ½ lengths. However, it is fair to suggest that she has not been facing the strongest company the last few starts and despite securing a Grade 1 victory last time out, this might be a class test. However, she has an advantageous position on Saturday drawing the rail and jockey John Velazquez is likely to have her sitting a pocket trip behind the early speed of Be Your Best. It has been a challenge to make up significant ground on the inner turf course with 80% of the winners of turf routes over the last week having led or tracked within three lengths at the half-mile mark. Those are the sorts of numbers you would expect on the main track. While the Cherie DeVaux trainee has been racking up victories, her BSF have not stood out over the field as three of her five competitors have equaled or surpassed her career-best 100 BSF. Still, she should sit an ideal trip and has shown a great deal of tenacity getting to the front and not relinquishing the lead once she is there. Distance is not a problem, and she just won over this turf course a month ago during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The bigger question for bettors is whether to omit her from your horizontal tickets. If you think she will not win, then you need to use a few horses to try and beat her, but if you include her then it is hard to justify including more than one additional horse, if that.

#5 Dynamic Pricing (9/2) – The dreaded “other Chad” is always dangerous as a threat to win when trainer Chad Brown sends out multiple runners in a big stakes races. As for the daughter of Night Thunder, she is coming off the biggest win of her career in the Just A Game (G1) last month at Saratoga during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The race was over a yielding turf course and she has always been one to do well over ground with some give in it as she also won the Edgewood over a yielding course at Churchill Downs last year. That said, she is more than just a soft ground specialist having won the Beaugay (G3) over a firm turf course at Aqueduct in May where she bested Edict and Heredia who are both running in the De La Rose Stakes on Thursday. She has clearly moved forward as a four-year-old and is in her third race back in the form cycle. Jockey Dylan Davis took over for Irad Ortiz Jr. the last time out and retains the mount as Ortiz Jr. will ride Be Your Best for Saffie Joseph Jr. The biggest issue with Dynamic Pricing might be her running style as she is a deep closer in a race that figures to have minimal pace being run over an inner turf course that had been very kind to speed. Yes, we’ve seen horses win coming from off the pace, but when you have top quality runners up front, it might be difficult to track them down in the stretch. However, at the 9/2 morning line price, she is easily one of the more attractive betting options and if you are trying to beat She Feels Pretty, then Dynamic Pricing is a horse you must include in your horizontal wagers.

#6 Be Your Best (6/1) – The likely controlling speed has become a new horse since switching over to the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr. from Horacio De Paz last summer. The biggest difference is that Joseph Jr. seems to have decided the horse does her best running up front and that has unlocked some big performances for a five-year-old mare who had a hard time getting that breakthrough victory. She has won four of her last five including the Gamely (G1) last time out at Santa Anita over longshot Lady Claypoole. She did not run well back in April when she faced the pair of Excellent Truth and Choisya at Keeneland, but that was off the bench and running over softer ground. The biggest thing is that she needs to probably turn in a career-best effort to win on Saturday. Her BSF have topped out at 98 and while that is not far off the top contenders, she notably lacks that triple-digit figure that so many others have. Additionally, she often runs figures in the low-90s, so she will need to step up and run even better than she did in the Gamely (G1) last time out. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. rode her beautifully up front and made sure she got clear and comfortable while setting strong fractions. She should be able to do that again and my hope is that Ortiz Jr. lets it out a notch to open up on the rest of the field as the New York jockey colony can occasionally be rocked to sleep going long on the turf by a horse that gets out up front and suddenly is five lengths clear coming for home. She is dangerous because of her speed and how the inner turf course has played thus far at Saratoga, so it is risky to leave her off your tickets.