Cotillion Stakes Picks

Analysis: Saturday’s Cotillion is easily the deepest field of three-year-old fillies since the Kentucky Oaks (G1) as it features three Grade 1 winners in the form of Good Cheer, La Cara, and Scottish Lassie. The field features a good amount of early speed as Scottish Lassie, Good Cheer, Indy Bay, Dry Powder, and Clicquot all like to be on or near the lead during the early stages. The winner of the race will likely emerge as the primary foe to reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Let’s dive into the field and selections.

#7 Good Cheer (5/2) has gone off as the favorite in all nine races of her career. The Godolphin homebred has delivered for the bettors seven times, but the concern is that her two losses are in her last two starts. However, there is reason to believe she can get back to her winning ways on Saturday. The pace scenario is the first thing that can go her way as she naturally prefers to run mid-pack and should get plenty of speed in front of her due to the shortened distance of the race. While she does own a victory going nine furlongs in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), most of her best work was done going 1 1/16 miles, which is what she will be running Saturday. She is a perfect 5-5 at that distance and the shorter distance will likely contribute to more speed, which in turn provides stronger fractions for her to run into down the stretch. One can excuse the effort two back in the Acorn (G1) as track conditions were awful that day at Saratoga and it was obvious she was not getting over the surface well. She bounced back with a nice runner-up effort to Nitrogen in the Alabama (G1). Nitrogen is likely the best three-year-old filly in the country regardless of surface as she has won six of seven races in 2025 on both turf and dirt, so finishing second to her is not a red flag. Trainer Brad Cox has given her two workouts since that Alabama, but it is noteworthy that she missed a workout in the beginning of September but came back to register a 1:01.2 second five-furlong workout on September 13 leading up to this race. Her mid-pack style will allow jockey Luis Saez to play the break and position her behind early speed before he calls on her to make her move around the turn and the top of the stretch.

If you’re looking for a price, #3 Clicquot (8/1) for trainer Brendan Walsh might just be your ticket. The daughter of Quality Road is out of the mare Royal Obsession (Tapit), who has foals the stakes placed runner Silver Ticket. Clicquot had a forgettable debut back in March as she lost to fellow Cotillion runner Indy Bay down at Gulfstream Park, but she bounced back to break her maiden at Keeneland. Walsh immediately placed her in a high-level optional claiming race going two turns at Churchill Downs which she easily won before he took her to Horseshoe Indianapolis for the Indiana Oaks (G3). She tracked the pace that day in a six-horse field and drew away by four lengths under jockey Edgar Morales. While she has not raced since that effort in early July, she has been consistently in training since the start of August and registered six official workouts leading up to her Grade 1 debut. The fact Walsh has decided to place her so aggressively speaks to his confidence as he is not a trainer who will put horses in over their heads. She should have no issue with the distance and picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for the mount on Saturday, which is always a positive. She has shown the ability to rate off the pace and while she possesses good early speed, she can sit just off the leaders and get first run at the top of the stretch.

The Frizette (G1) Coaching Club of American Oaks (G1) winner, #1 Scottish Lassie (9/5), is an interesting case as she owns a Grade 1 victory as a juvenile and a three-year-old. She dominated both of those races winning by a combined 24 ½ lengths, but in between she never showed that same ability. However, excuses can be made as she finished a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Del Mar before going to the bench for six months. She might have needed the first two races off the bench where she finished third before popping a huge effort up at Saratoga in the CCAO (G1). However, that race could be an anomaly as it was a four-horse field where she got an easy lead and simply was never tested. That will not be the case on Saturday as there are plenty of other horses who will want to travel up front and apply pace pressure. Lucky for jockey Joel Rosario, he was the option to take back, an option Joel always is willing to take, as the Jorge Abreu trainee has won coming from off the pace as well. Rosario could let the speed clear out and hold the inside rail while sitting a pocket trip and saving all the ground. However, she needs to back up a performance against a much deeper field than she faced last time out.

One of the fillies hellbent on getting to the front will be #2 La Cara (7/2). The Mark Casse trainee needs to get to the front and can sustain her run when she is not pressed, but the presence of Scottish Lassie and Indy Bay makes me think she is not going to shake loose up front. She has become an “every other” horse as he alternates between wins and poor efforts. According to that cycle, she is due for a victory on Saturday after she finished fourth by 14 lengths in the Alabama (G1). She is shortening up to 1 1/16 miles, which is a huge benefit and jockey Dylan Davis remains aboard. At her best, she can wire the field and win, but when she gets seriously pressured as she did in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), she tends to fade well before the sixteenth pole. I have a lot of respect for Casse, and he has her training well coming into this race, but she is such a fickle horse to back and I would love to see her trip going into the first turn as that will dictate what happens the rest of the way. If she somehow manages to shake clear of her competition and had a length lead over the next closest challengers, then she absolutely has a shot. If anyone is off her flank or if Scottish Lassie grabs the lead on the inside, then she is an instant toss. She is the type of horse that I am scared to leave off my ticket, but you do not want to spread too much while using all the top choices.