Commonwealth Turf Stakes

One of the final graded stakes races restricted to three-year-olds goes off on Saturday at Churchill Downs as some promising runners face off on the turf. The Commonwealth Turf (G3) is always a fun race because it showcases horses who might be major players in the upcoming year in the older turf route division. I landed on #8 Chapman’s Peak (9/2) as my top choice for trainer Brad Cox with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons. The son of Quality Road might have had a slow start to his career, but it fits the trajectory of his pedigree and bodes for big things to come. His dam, Dickinson, who an average dirt horse to start her career and did not show her full potential until she switched to the turf and became a Grade 1 winner. Additionally, Chapman’s Peak’s full brother, Wadsworth, was also a bit of a slow starter on dirt until he switched to synthetic and eventually turf where he racked up a pair of stakes victories going two turns. As for this Godolphin runner, he debuted as a juvenile but clearly needed time to develop. He came back from nearly a nine-month layoff to run in a race that was rained off the grass before finally getting back on the turf in his next start to break his maiden at Kentucky Downs going 1 5/16 miles. Distance clearly is not an issue. He backed up his maiden breaking victory by taking down N1X allowance company next time out at Keeneland. He had Ortiz Jr. aboard for both victories, so I love to see that Irad is sticking with him as he had another option in this race. What also impressed me was the way in which Chapman’s Peak won the two races as he came from mid-pack at Kentucky Downs while taking the field gate-to-wire at Keeneland. He will be switching off Lasix for the first time, but Cox’s numbers are incredible in this spot as he is winning 30% of turf graded stakes races when his runner is switching off Lasix. The horse has been working well leading up to Saturday and should be able to deliver at an honest price.

A horse that has been running well this summer/fall is #7 Giocoso (4/1) who came back from a fifth-place effort in the American Turf (G1) in May to score a win off the bench in the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs. The son of Not This Time followed that up with a pair of in the money finishes in the Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs and the Bryan Station (G3) at Keeneland. Jockey Jose Ortiz takes over for Ben Curtis for trainer Keith Desormeaux. The horse has run a mile the last three times out, but does possess two victories going Saturday’s distance, so I do not believe he is strictly a miler and might be a little better stretching out. He is 6-8 in his career hitting the board on the turf and 5-8 in the exacta, so he is a reliable runner who, like Chapman’s Peak, has some versatility in his running style having been a deep closer in some races and tracking close to the pace in others. His Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) are on par with the rest of the field and Ortiz has been riding lights out in Kentucky winning at a 24% clip during the Fall Meet at Churchill Downs.

Your morning line favorite, #2 Troubleshooting (7/2), has been a model of consistency for trainer Greg Foley as he was a nose away from being a perfect 4-4 the last four times he’s stepped out on the track. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione stakes aboard after riding him to consecutive stakes victories in the Franklin Simpson (G1) and Bryan Station (G3). The horse has good early speed and can put himself in an advantageous position. However, the big question for Saturday is the distance as he started his career as a sprinter and only recently started covering more ground. First, he tackled 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs, which plays more like a seven furlong or mile course because of the undulation. However, last time he proved to handle two turns when he went a mile. The additional half furlong might not seem like much, but I have a feeling he is maxed out at a mile since he was losing ground late in the Bryan Station (G3) and now faces a deeper group on Saturday going longer. He is such an honest runner that it will be hard to throw him off your tickets, but it could present outstanding value to try and beat him with a bigger price in this spot. I would expect #6 Mansetti (6/1) to be the main pace presence in the race but look for Gaffalione to carve out a trip where Troubleshooting is a length from the leader in the early stages and gets first run. The question is whether he is good enough to hold on at the end.

Finally, we must talk about “Flying Puppy” AKA #9 Flying Mohawk (8/1) who is returning to the track for trainer Whit Beckman and the Two Eight Racing ownership group led by former MLB superstar Jason Werth. Werth came onto the horse racing scene last year when he was part owner of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch whom he affectionately referred to as “Big Puppy.” This year, Werth with back at the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Flying Mohawk who had qualified for the race by finishing second in the Jeff Ruby (G3) over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. Sadly, Flying Puppy had a tough trip in his first attempt on dirt and finished second to last and has been on the bench for the last six months. The son of Karakontie returns on Saturday and gets back on the green stuff, which was always his best surface as he showed steady progression late in his juvenile campaign and early three-year-old season. Beckman is putting blinkers on, and I would expect jockey JD Ramos to keep him in a mid-pack position while trying to clear horses going into the first turn to save ground. He is a complete X-factor in the race and might be a dud in his first action in over six months, but at 8/1 on the morning line, he is a horse that I will throw in, along with #6 Mansetti (6/1), in my deeper vertical wagers like trifectas and superfectas.