Commonwealth Cup Stakes (G1) Picks

Analysis

It’s been difficult to get around favorites in the marquee races during the Royal Ascot meet this year, and #21 Venetian Sun (9-5) certainly feels like a continuation of that trend in the Commonwealth Cup Stakes (G1) on Friday. The son of Starman trained by Karl Burke is undefeated when traveling six furlongs, where he bested eventual 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) winner Gstaad last year. He started his career 4-4 but suffered defeat in his last run of 2025 when he stretched out to seven furlongs and had to deal with yielding going. He came back from nearly an eight-month layoff to finish 11th in the 1,000 Guineas (G1) going a mile, but got back to his winning ways last time out when he cut back to six furlongs to take the William Hill Sandy Lane (G2). Not only is he a spectacular sprinter, but he is also a horse who has faced multiple stakes winners during his limited time on the track. In nearly every race, the horses he defeated have come back to do big things in their subsequent runs, so he’s not just winning, he’s beating classy runners. It’s a massive field, and taking a short price on a horse is never advised, but from a handicapping perspective, he is a difficult horse to get around at this distance.

However, if you are trying to get around him, I have a few horses in mind, starting with #4 Charles Darwin (12-1) for the legend Aidan O’Brien. The son of No Nay Never is built to be a sprinter and won the Norfolk (G2) last year at Royal Ascot, which was his final run of the year. He came back from a lengthy absence to win a listed stakes race before finishing a disappointing eighth in the Goffs Lacken (G3). Perhaps he didn’t like the going, and it’s notable that superstar jockey Ryan Moore is hopping off this horse in this race, but Charles Darwin fits the profile of a horse I love to bet. He has gone off as the favorite in every start of his career and been the odds-on favorite in five of six starts. He loses one race, and suddenly he is 12-1 on the morning line. If he wins on Friday, you will never get this good of odds again, so I’m willing to take a swing with a horse who loves Royal Ascot and is built for sprinting for a world-class trainer. We already saw one of O’Brien’s runners, Minnie Hauk, bounce back after a subpar showing in her final Royal Ascot prep, so it’s not uncommon for his runners to rebound in a big way.

If you’re reading this, you’re likely from the United States, in which case let me share the good news that we have a legitimate American win contender in this year’s race. #10 Outfielder (15-1) is making his second trip overseas for trainer Wesley Ward who is the North American trainer most associated with Royal Ascot. The son of Speightstown won on the turf in his debut at Churchill Downs and immediately went to France for the Prix Morny (G1), where he finished fourth behind Venetian Sun, Gstaad, and Wise Approach. While it was only a six-horse field, it was still an encouraging effort, and he came back to the United States and won an allowance race on dirt before fading badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Ward did the right thing by sending him to the bench and deciding to cut him back to sprinting. The results have been favorable as he won the Animal Kingdom Stakes over synthetic at Turfway Park before winning the William Walker Stakes at Churchill Downs. He has not really been tested in either race, but beat some decent turf sprinters along the way, like Throckmorton. He is making his third start back in the form cycle for a trainer who knows Royal Ascot and gets native jockey David Egan up on the mount, which I love as I tend to trust English jockeys more in straight sprints compared to North American jockeys, as they often mistime when to make the winning move.

The main Aidan O’Brien horse is #1 Albert Einstein (4-1), who has Ryan Moore in the irons and is a completely logical choice for win honors. The son of Wootten Bassett has always run well at six furlongs and is coming off a narrow defeat in a stakes race last time out to Song of the Clyde. While he has improved in each start in 2026, he has yet to win since his juvenile campaign. That said, he has a similar profile to Charles Darwin in that he’s been favored in every career start, and while 4-1 might not be as tempting as 12-1, the bottom line is that you aren’t going to get this price again if he wins on Friday. Ryan Moore has had a phenomenal week at Royal Ascot and always seems to give the ideal right, so using this runner in your wagers is certainly a smart decision.