Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

I do not expect a blistering pace in this year’s renewal of the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) as #3 La Rascasse (8-1) will likely go to the front as the main inside speed with #7 Directive (6-1) stalking the pace as the lone horse with speed on the outside. You can expect #1 Counting Stars (2-1) to be aggressive from the rail, but she does not have the same sort of speed as the two main speed presences. Therefore, she should sit more of a pocket trip behind the pace. The X-factor in the race is #8 Zany (9-2) as she is cross entered in the Monmouth Oaks (G3) and whether she runs here on Saturday could shake things up. It was reported two weeks ago that she would head to Monmouth Park, but since then she recorded a monster workout and it’s possible the connections decided to reroute her here. She is getting blinkers added and could show better speed. However, with the dynamics as they are, it feels like a race where you want a horse who will be closer to the pace.

Analysis

We often joke about “the other Chad” horse when it comes to turf racing, but Brown has had a fleet of impressive three-year-old dirt runners throughout the first half of 2026 such as Always a Runner, Emerging Market, Paladin, Canaletto, and more. #7 Directive (6-1) is a new entry on the list as the daughter of Gun Runner did not debut until April where she lost in a 6 ½ furlong maiden race at Aqueduct before stretching out to romp in the slop going a mile in her second start. She backed up her maiden victory with a relatively easy victory against allowance optional claiming company going nine furlongs during Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Weekend at Saratoga. Based off her performance in those races, Brown is stepping her up to face stakes company for the first time and it is not without merit. She has shown she can handle the distance, and Brown is intimately aware of the female family having trained two of her half siblings, Segesta and Salamis. Those two horses are both Grade 1 winners going long on the turf, so the fact Brown has only ever run this horse on the dirt should give you a sense of her best surface. She should sit an ideal trip tracking just off La Rascasse and should Will Walden’s horse not fire out of the gate, jockey Flavien Prat could easily take the initiative and lead things into the first turn. She is bred to get this distance, and I like that Brown has managed to ease her into this spot compared to his Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby entries Always a Runner and Emerging Market, both of whom made their third career starts in the signature races of their age group. Trainers will tell you how important it is to get an allowance race into a horse before moving from maiden to stakes company, so the fact Brown has been able to build the foundation up in this Juddmonte homebred is encouraging. Prat remaining aboard also provides confidence. While the track has played fairly to this point of the meet, it is never a bad thing to be forward and must be the one to catch.

Brown’s “main” entry was poised to be the horse of the summer at Saratoga after #6 Always a Runner (9-5) started her career a perfect 3-3 besting maidens, winning the Gazelle (G3), and then turning in a powerhouse performance in primetime taking the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She came into last month’s Acorn (G1) as the odds-on favorite and made her move at the top of the stretch but was quickly overtaken by Counting Stars and could do no better than second by nearly four lengths. She is another daughter of Gun Runner who has plenty of distance pedigree for the nine-furlong test on Saturday. The fact she regressed on Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) last time out might not be that surprising for a horse with limited foundation who ran such a huge race at Churchill Downs. She comes back from a seven-week rest and should be primed for a big effort after turning in five solid morning workouts over the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga. Her biggest enemy might be the pace dynamics as she is a horse that prefers to sit further off the pace and make one run turning for home. The hotter it is up front, the better it will be for her. However, with limited speed signed on, she could be running against dynamics. That said, her talent cannot be denied, and she has every reason to bounce back in a big week. It’s possible Chad Brown takes the exacta in a Grade 1 a week after he had the trifecta in the Dunkin’ Diana (G1).

It might surprise some that I have #1 Counting Stars (2-1) so low in my analysis. The Mark Casse trainee is coming off a dominant victory in the Acorn (G1) last month at Saratoga and has the most quality foundation in the field having faced stakes company since last October. She had a sneaky bad trip in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) where she finished third as she was pinned inside and not allowed to make her run as Meaning and Always a Runner got the jump on her. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. took over the mount last time out and kept her wide to give her the space to make a sweeping move on the far turn and her momentum carried her past the field in a dramatic move. She is more than formidable in this spot and should sit a pocket trip behind the speed horses and get first jump on them turning for home. I like her workout pattern coming into the race as well as she had a sharp four-furlong work on July 12 followed by a slow maintenance work leading up to the race, which is generally an indication a trainer has his horse exactly where he wants them. However, she has not backed up a victory since her juvenile campaign and trainer Mark Casse is shockingly 3-31 (9%) the last five years with last out winners in dirt route graded stakes. Two of those three wins were juveniles (La Cara and Wonder Wheel) and the other victory was Nitrogen’s win in last year’s Wonder Again (G2) when it was taking off the turf. When you combine that with the horse’s habit of not backing up victories, it makes me hesitant to back her at a short price and potentially the betting favorite. Certainly, Ortiz Jr. staying aboard is a huge plus and Casse has been off to a strong start during the Saratoga meet with 19% winners, but I’ll try to get around using her in my Pick 5 tickets.

Finally, a longshot of interest is #3 La Rascasse (8-1) for trainer Will Walden who will call upon jockey Axel Concepcion to slide into the irons. The daughter of Authentic is a perfect 2-2 in her young career, which includes a victory last time out in the Monomoy Girl over Grade 1 winner Percy’s Bar. She backed up her debut 84 BSF with another 84 while stretching out to two turns and switching off Lasix. There is plenty to like, but she will need to get faster. Walden is one of the bright young stars in our game and has shown the ability to get his horse’s prepared for big spots, this could be a tall task. To this point in his career, Walden is 0-12 in dirt route graded stakes, but he’s also getting better horseflesh than he started with as La Rascasse was a $750,000 purchase co-owned by Resolute Racing and MyRacehorse. She might find herself on the lead with Concepcion aboard, so in that regard she will be the one to catch, but I am a little curious about her ability to handle distance with as her female family large points toward a sprinting background. It’s a big spot for her to face a pair of Grade 1 winners and several other ascending horses who have all run faster figures than her, but if her 8-1 morning line price holds, she is a tempting horse to use underneath in trifectas and supers.