Clark Stakes Picks

Pace: The pace should be honest, but maybe not as hot as some project, for the renewal of the Clark (G2) on Friday at Churchill Downs. #1 Bolzy (12/1) is getting the blinkers added after nearly taking them gate-to-wire last time out in the Fayette (G2) against Hit Show, so we know the horse has good natural speed that should only be accentuated due to his rail draw and equipment change. Brad Cox’s other entry, #5 Most Wanted (7/2) has good early speed and has largely gone gate-to-wire the last two times out but has shown the ability to rate in previous starts. Finally, #9 Cooke Creek (6/1) has seen a remarkable transformation since switching to Mike Maker’s barn and has outstanding speed from the outside. However, I have a hard time seeing these three horses dueling each other into the ground as each possess the ability to rate and stalk whoever ends up as the leader. The interesting thing about the race is that so many of the horses are closers who will be hoping for a hot and contested pace.

#5 Most Wanted (7/2) – Brad Cox has two entries and while Hit Show (more on him in a minute) is the more highly-regarded, I have a feeling his lesser known will be the one in the winner’s circle at the end. The son of Candy Ride has a lot going for him but let’s start with a human factor. Long time Cox #1 jockey, Florent Geroux, has been riding both Hit Show and Most Wanted over the past year, but on Friday, Geroux presumably had a choice and decided to ride Most Wanted. That speaks well to his evaluation of the horse and what he might be capable of doing with more experience. Most Wanted has gotten faster in every start according to his Beyer Speed Figures and possesses good early speed to get away from the gate and sit in a good position. If Bolzy decides to take the initiative from the inside rail, Geroux can carve out an easy stalking trip to the outside. If Bolzy is half step slow or not aggressive out of the gate, then Most Wanted could easily go to the front and control things. Geroux has options and the horse beat time nice runners last time out when he answered a few different questions. He took down EJ Won the Cup, Indispensable, and Dimatic last time out which was his first attempt without Lasix. We just saw Dimatic and Indispensable come back to run 1-2 in the Zia Park Derby on Tuesday. With so many of the top contenders having late running styles, I prefer to go with a horse who will put himself into the mix early and considering the track profile of Churchill Downs, should be able to take them all the way around.

#6 Hit Show (3/1) – Another son of Candy Ride, Hit Show is a streaky horse. He started off his career winning three of his first four races including the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct. Then he went 14 months (5 races) without a win but has now won four of his last five from May to October including three straight graded stakes affairs. He has turned into one of the more reliable horses at this level and strikes me as having a similar profile to Skippylongstocking as a horse that shows up and collected a lot of Grade 2 and Grade 3 victories in the older male dirt route division. My only hesitation is that his running style does not leave much margin for error. His three most recent graded stakes victories have come by less than a combined 1 ½ lengths and while he has been effective at making a move into contention at the top of the stretch, I wonder if he will be able to do that with so many other horses trying to carve out similar trips. New jockey Tyler Gaffalione is more than capable of coming from off the pace, but I will often play against new jockeys on off-the-pace horses simply because they might misjudge their kick, how much they have left in the tank, or when/where to move them on the track. It would hardly shock me if he won, but he does not possess a significant (or any) Beyer Speed Figure advantage over the field. Finally, while Cox and Gaffalione are a successful pairing (31% winning over the last five years), their success trends down in graded stakes dirt routes (10% winning) over the same period of time.

#9 Cooke Creek (6/1) – The son of Uncle Mo was an afterthought running against optional claiming company earlier this year and was not even favored when he was dropped in for a tag in May at Churchill Downs. However, he won that race and was claimed by Mike Maker who stepped him up against some nice $80K optional claimers and won before finishing second by a neck last time out in the Fayette when he got caught late by Hit Show. He has had a rapid ascension the last few races, but he proved last time out that it is no fluke as he ran well off Lasix and against graded stakes competition. Perhaps he will struggle to get the right trip from the outside post position, but his natural speed should ensure that he is sitting no worse than third in the early going while stalking the pace. Jockey Luis Saez has been on fire at Churchill Downs this meet, winning 28% of all his mounts and over the last five years, he has guided 70% of his rides for Mike Maker into the money in dirt route graded stakes races. He can handle different track conditions and should be able to clear a good chunk of the field to ensure he is not hung too far wide throughout.

#3 Crupi (4/1) – I enjoy few horses more than Crupi. He always had talent but started his career 0-7 while facing some of the toughest company in his generation going against the likes of Disarm, Arthur’s Ride, Instant Coffee, Signator, Angel of Empire, and even Hit Show. Finally, he broke his maiden halfway through his three-year-old season and has gone on to become a three-time stakes winner including a graded stakes victory in the Suburban (G2). He ran well to finish second behind Next in the Brooklyn (G2) and Arthur’s Ride in the Whitney (G1), but then thoroughly disappointed in the Woodward (G2) where he finished a distant third by 14 lengths. Trainer Todd Pletcher gave him a quick freshening and, most importantly, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard. The son of Curlin has always been slow out of the gate but tends to do his best when he is within earshot of the lead. The key on Friday will be ensuring that Irad down not have him too far back to start the race. If he can stay within 3-5 lengths of the lead, then he has a chance to start tracking them down coming for home. One thing is rarely in doubt, most like his fellow deep closer (#8 Red Route One – 8/1), he is always reliable to make their move regardless of pace.