Cincinnati Trophy Picks

Pace Scenario

While some outlets project a fast pace, I do not see it. The horses with the best early speed, #3 Coco Connect (7-2) and #10 Map of the Moon (3-1), are both stretching out from sprinting in their previous race, but neither horse needs the lead. While the fractions should be honest, I am not expecting the lead to be hotly contested, which should allow the horses up front to get settled into a nice rhythm. There is an opportunity for a horse like #1 Resplendence (12-1) to get a perfect trip in the pocket while saving ground on the rail but look to which of the jockeys riding mid-pack horses can get aggressive to spot their horse in a good position going into the first turn. Turfway Park’s all-weather surface plays fair to speed and closers, but the pace would seem to favor those setting the fractions near the front or who get first run.

Analysis

It’s Turfway Park, but you must take a swing at a price, which is why I landed on #11 Resist (10-1), who draws the far outside post for trainer Tom Drury Jr. and jockey Irving Moncada. The daughter of Maclean’s Music is undefeated in two starts and has shown nice progression since her debut victory. She was assigned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) for her win against allowance company, where she did not have the easiest trip but proved to be the best in a dueling stretch run while going a mile over this surface. Her ability to stretch out to Friday’s distance is promising for her continued progression, though she is switching off Lasix, which is less of a concern since she broke her maiden without the assistance of Lasix. The horse does come from further off the pace, which is a potential concern due to getting caught wide, but I believe Moncada can follow a horse like Map of the Moon out of the gate and secure a nice tracking trip. The #11 post at Turfway Park going a mile is hardly disqualifying as the post position has produced 13% winners during the meet. The horse is working well over the all-weather surface, and it is encouraging that he was able to close into modest fractions in his last race, so he hardly needs a meltdown to take place in front of him during the early stages of the race.

As mentioned above, I expect #10 Map of the Moon (3-1) to be forward in the early stages of the race, and the daughter of Liam’s Map is stretching out to two turns for the first time. She is undefeated for trainer Kelsey Danner and has done it on both turf and synthetic, having won the Gowell Stakes last time out at Turfway Park. Her BSF for her victory at Turfway Park dipped quite a bit, but that was an oddly run race with extremely fast early fractions as the filly Sassy C W opened up over eight lengths on the field before fading to last. Whenever I see races and fractions like those, I am more likely to look past the figure, as I often believe you will see a movement back to “the mean” in a positive way in their next start. While she is an off-the-pace runner in her three sprint tries, I would expect her to be sitting on the lead or tracking from second position going into the first turn. While she has closed in sprints, due in part to strong early fractions, she seems like the type of horse that will also easily be able to do things up front going longer. There is plenty of pedigree to suggest she will continue to excel on the surface, as Liam’s Map is producing 18% synthetic route winners, and her dam produced another foal who won on synthetic. There are plenty of things to like in this horse, and one I will be including on all my tickets.

Your morning line favorite is #8 Dame Laura (2-1) for Godolphin, trained by Brendan Walsh. She is a Munnings filly out of a Tapit mare, and we have seen this pedigree cross with several other Godolphin runners, most notably the horse Poster for trainer Eoin Harty, who has won on both turf and dirt. Dame Laura debuted on turf and has run against some outstanding competition, as she’s faced Sister Troienne who might be the most talented three-year-old filly, regardless of surface, in the country. She also bested the horse Hit Parade on debut, and all that filly did was switch surfaces and win three straight races, including the Untapable Stakes. Last time out, she switched to the synthetic and romped by over five lengths against allowance company and the runner-up, Liveoaks Viewpoint, won easily next time out with an improved BSF. She is an off-the-pace runner and switching off Lasix for this race after receiving it for the first time in her last effort. Walsh, who is a top-notch trainer, has not had much success in these spots as he is only 3-39 (8%) over the last five years in three-year-old stakes races on synthetic. She is clearly the filly to beat in this race, but I do question whether she gets the right trip as she’ll get crossed over by Map of the Moon and be sitting further back. Perhaps she is good enough to overcome it, but her last race is hardly a standout on the figures.

I could talk about a few horses in this final slot as fillies like #2 Lovely Gray (12/1), #3 Coco Connect (7/2), and #4 Rip Current (12/1) are all interesting at a price and are likely to find their way onto my tickets in some way, form, or fashion. However, I landed on a bigger price in the form of #5 Belle of the Barn (15-1) for trainer Caio Caramori with Dylan Machado up on the mount. The daughter of Street Sense won on debut against restricted Maiden Special Weight company but did it impressively, coming from off the pace going 6 ½ furlongs. She has the pedigree to suggest that going longer will be her friend, as Street Sense produces 16% synthetic route winners, and she is out of an unraced Medaglia d’Oro mare who has plenty of distance influence in her female family. There is no doubt this is an ambitious placement for her in only her second career start, but she has enough early speed compared to the rest of this group to be in the mix during the early going and should be able to sustain her run going a mile. Caramori has not had much success switching runners off Lasix (0-14 the last five years), which is why she is deeper underneath in my selections, but I always remind myself that horses are unaware of trainer stats and often prove the numbers wrong. For instance, prior to Belle of the Barn’s victory last time out, Caramori was 2-49 (4%) with debut runners in MSW races over the last five years. Yet the horse attracted money as she went off at 5/1 and reeled in the 9/5 favorite at the wire. So long as she gets away from the gate cleanly and gets a nice tracking trip within a few lengths of the pace, I think she can run a nice race and outrun her odds. She is a horse I would consider including in horizontal wagers and will be on all my vertical tickets.