Cigar Mile Picks

MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEK: SATURDAY, DECEMBER 7

Pace: The pace will be honest on Saturday in the feature race for the Cigar Mile (G2). Expect longshots #2 Nelson Avenue (30/1) and #3 Repo Rocks (30/1) to send hard from the inside as the former only has one way to win and the latter will want to make sure he is not shuffled too far back early. Obviously, #5 Mullikin (3/1) is going to flash significant speed stretching out to a mile for the first time and remember that last year’s winner, Hoist the Gold, had a similar profile of a sprinter who had some questions of whether he could get the mile distance. The Forego (G1) winner has serious talent, but coming off the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) and stretching out might not be my favorite combination though he keeps top jockey Flavien Prat in the irons and is second back from a brief layoff. Additionally, #8 Pipeline (20/1) also only has one way to win, which is gate-to-wire, so expect jockey Junior Alvarado to be aggressive. The track has played fairly to those closing from the back and there are some serious closers in this field with #1 Book ‘em Danno (4/1) who can do it a few different ways, #9 Senor Buscador (6/1) who has the best late kick in the field, and #11 Post Time (7/2) who can come from off the pace. The X-factor in the field is #7 Locked (9/2) who is second back from a long layoff and has the potential to be one of the top older horses in 2025.

#7 Locked (9/2) – This time last year, the son of Gun Runner was one of the top contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1). However, a foot injury leading up to his 2024 debut in the Fountain of Youth (G2) ended up derailing his campaign. Trainer Todd Pletcher has brought him back slowly and he came back to the races in October with a productive victory over optional claiming company where he drew off by 7 ½ lengths when going seven furlongs. Pletcher has made it known that they might be targeting the Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park in January as his next race, which would squarely put him in discussion among the top older horses in the country. His Beyer Speed Figures need to improve as he has yet to exceed 100, but he also ran a career-best 97 coming off an 11-month layoff, so expecting another step forward is not out of the realm of possibilities. Jockey John Velazquez stole this race on the front-end last year with Hoist the Gold and the running style of Locked is intriguing. He is more of a grinder as he came from well off the pace to win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last year in addition to when he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last November. When he came back in 2024, Velazquez had him more forward, but he needs to be ridden to ensure he stays close to the pace. I would expect him to sit mid-pack or a tracking trip against this field, but his pedigree is all distance, and he should appreciate the pace setup and distance. Out of the top contenders, he presents the best value and will not have as much work to do coming for home as some of the other top contenders who close from further off the pace.

#1 Book ‘em Danno (4/1) – The New Jersey-bred son of Bucchero (now standing in New York), has been an incredibly reliable runner throughout his career as he has never finished out of the money in 10 career starts with six wins including the Woody Stephens (G1). The mile distance is a question mark as he has come up just short with runner-up finishes both times he has tried going this far in the past. However, the Derek Ryan trainee has been working out well leading up to the race and he has danced every dance with the best three-year-old sprinters, but now will take on older horses. His losses have come to the likes of Domestic Product, Prince of Monaco, and Forever Young, so he holds his own against the best of his crop. The inside rail might be a challenge considering he has speed horses like Nelson Avenue and Repo Rocks to his outside, but he has shown the ability to come from off the pace and has jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, which gives me even more confidence. Ortiz Jr. is one of the best in the world and is at his best with horses tracking the pace, which should be where he ends up sitting. He might not be able to go much longer than a mile, but his continued maturation and foundation gives me confidence he can handle a mile against older competition. Much like Locked, he is unlikely to be closing from the back and should be in a good position to pounce on the leaders around the far turn and turning for home.

#9 Senor Buscador (6/1) – In general, I am skeptical of betting on horses making their first start back from the Breeders’ Cup. Why? Because the Breeders’ Cup was the primary focus for these horses and connections. They had been training up to the race and their entire annual campaign was geared toward that race. They were not focused on getting the horse ready for the race AFTER the Breeders’ Cup. I typically find there is a little letdown, and you saw that last week with heavy favorite Jonathan’s Way losing the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). I saw all of this to preface my thoughts on Senor Buscador, Post Time, and Mullikin, all of whom are exiting various BC races last month. As for the $12.9 million earner, Senor Buscador is closing out his career with the Cigar Mile (G2) and the Pegasus World Cup (G1). The son of Mineshaft has run some huge races in the past but appeared that it took him a little while to get back into shape after running overseas to start 2024. He looked awful in the California Crown (G1) two back but finished a respectable fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but he also got an incredibly fast pace to run into with his closing running style. However, there are many who believe he is best running one-turn races as he gets more pace in front of him, so I think Saturday’s race might set up well. Jockey Joel Rosario is as good as anyone at bringing a horse from off the pace and closing with a furious run, but it is notable that jockey Junior Alvarado, who rode Senor Buscador to his biggest victory in the 2024 Saudi Cup (G1), is on Pipeline. Rosario has ridden the horse in the Classic, so he has some familiarity with his running style. Fincher has been working the horse at Zia Park and he will have a big cheering section on Saturday as he runs his penultimate race.

#11 Post Time (7/2) – The son of Frosted is a $1M earner who has won a pair of graded stakes races, but I do have questions about his ability to win against top competition. His one graded stakes victory came at Laurel Park over an unimpressive group, none of which ran particularly well after the race. His other graded stakes win was over a four-horse field, and he barely got the job done over Castle Chaos and Super Chow. That victory in the Carter (G2) is his only win outside of the state of Maryland. That said, he runs honest every time and has never missed the board in his career. Trainer Brittany Russell has her husband jockey Sheldon Russell aboard and while there is no doubt he likely knows the horse better than anyone, I cannot help but think there are a few times Russell might have misjudged when to move the horse and rides him like he is still back at Laurel Park where he can get away with big late moves. He is coming up an impressive runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and now draws the outside post which might be a little challenge to overcome as he will need to find a place to slot the horse over going down the backstretch to avoid being hung wide around the far turn. It is hard to imagine he will not make his run and he is such a reliable horse that he should be included in all of your vertical wagers.