Chilukki Stakes Picks

The Chilukki (G3) is one of my favorite races each year as it features up-and-coming filly and mare sprinters who are potentially going to make a splash in the division the following year. This year’s group of runners looks promising, led by #7 Ragtime for trainer Bill Mott. The three-year-old daughter of Union Rags debuted this summer at Saratoga and immediately made an impression easily winning her first two races before nearly winning the Test (G1) in only her third career start. She bounced back to win the Dogwood (G3) next time out but saw her Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) decline from 96 to 86. Her last start was at Keeneland, and she improved her BSF slightly (90), but fell short of winning the Raven Run (G2) as her late rally from last came up short when she finished third by less than a length. After her last two starts when she lacked early speed, Mott goes back to the blinkers, which I believe will get her more involved during the start of the race. She lacks the elite early speed of Shred the Gnar or One Magic Philly, but if you look at her second career start, she sat close to pace and I expect her to do the same on Saturday. Her outside post position is also a huge advantage as she has broken from the rail or the middle of the pack in all her previous starts, but on Saturday jockey Junior Alvarado will be able to play the break and keep her out of trouble. She is less than a length away from being a perfect 5-5 with three graded stakes wins, so she simply needs to run to her previous efforts to get the win.

A filly who could provide some value is #6 One Magic Philly who is likely to be the third choice coming post time. The recent addition to the Brendan Walsh barn started her career in California for trainer Phil D’Amato and won the Chillingworth (G3) last year in only her fourth career start. Over the last year, she has run up against some serious competition including this year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) winner Splendora in addition to Kopion and Sweet Azteca. While she fell short against those runners, she kept outstanding company and putting up competitive BSFs. She was transferred to Walsh in September who ran her during the Keeneland Fall Meet in a $100,000 optional claimer going 6 ½ furlongs where she won easily over Hillerito who came back last weekend to win the Dream Supreme Stakes. Stretching back out to a mile should not be an issue, particularly with the one-turn configuration as One Magic Philly prefers to stalk the pace and gets stronger late in the race. Due to her post position, she should be sitting just off the early pace of Shred the Gnar who possesses the best early speed in the field. Depending on how the track is playing, there might not be a ton of passing and One Magic Philly should be sitting an ideal trip to get first crack at the leader under the ride of Tyler Gaffalione. She backed up her 91 BSF last time out and should be sitting on a big effort. I am absolutely using her in the Early Pick 5 ticket for the sequence.

Perhaps the biggest X-factor is #2 Shred the Gnar who is coming off a six-month layoff for trainer Brian Lynch. The $610,000 daughter of Into Mischief out of the highly productive mare Aspen Light (Bernardini) came up just short in debut at Gulfstream Park back in February as she ran out of ground going six furlongs. She came back to romp in a one-turn mile against maiden company in her next start in a race that produced four next-out winners, including herself as she crushed $125,000 N1X company going two turns at Churchill Downs. She has not been seen since, but she has improved in every career start as she went from 80 to 88 to 94 in her three starts as she stretched out. The fact she has never taken a step back speaks to the possibility that we have yet to reach the bottom of her talent. Lynch’s decision to place her in a stakes race off the layoff is promising, and she has been working well leading up to Saturday. She is going to be controlling speed under the guidance of jockey Luis Saez. It could be as simple as her getting to the front and not looking back, but there is the possibility that One Magic Philly presses her and that she fatigues in the final half furlong coming back from such a substantial layoff. I will be interested to see how she is bet leading up to post time and could be a dead giveaway about live she is in this spot.

If you are looking for a price to upset the apple cart, consider #3 Literate who just joined the barn of trainer Brad Cox. Cox is outstanding with this sort of trainer change moves into stakes races. Over the last five years, fillies coming into his barn off a trainer change are winning 40% of dirt stakes races and are winning 35% of their overall first starts for Cox regardless of class level. The Oscar Performance filly has talent, but has raced almost exclusively over turf or synthetic though she has had a few standout performances over the dirt including her victory over 2023 Champion Juvenile Filly Just FYI in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park. She has been training well for Cox and while her BSF are a little light, it would hardly be surprising to see her move forward under the new barn with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. seeing fit to take the mount.