Chilukki Stakes Picks

MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEK: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Pace: The pace scenario for the Chilukki would appear straightforward. #4 Two Sharp (2/1) has the best early speed in the field and is getting blinkers added for trainer Phil Bauer (more on that later) and should be able to get clear of the field with relative ease. The question is whether she can get the distance having never surpassed 6 ½ furlongs before. Chasing her will be a few different runners such as #7 Oeuvre (6/1) who has very good speed as a sprinter but did manage to get third in this race last year running at a mile. On the far outside, #8 Fancy (6/1) wired the field last time out and gets a good post position to track the early pace. Meanwhile, on the inside, #2 Pigalle (9/2) also has outstanding early speed and could be a foil for Two Sharp, however the horse has not shown the same type of elite speed the last couple of times out.

#4 Two Sharp (2/1) – From a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint, the daughter of Twirling Candy towers over the field as she’s recorded three straight 94+ BSF while winning two and losing by a neck in the Prioress (G3) to Brightwork. The Phil Bauer trainee has been a below even money favorite in every race of her career and never finished out of the exacta. She has outstanding early speed and is getting blinkers added, which is a plus move for Bauer. Over the last two years he has been winning 28% of races when using blinkers for the first time. The biggest question with Two Sharp is whether she can get the mile distance. A few things give me reason to think she will. First, this is Churchill Downs which can be a speed favoring track, particularly out of the one-turn mile chute. Another factor is her pedigree. Twirling Candy might only have a 6.7-furlong average winning distance for his progeny, but they’ve won at an incredibly high rate (16%) when stretching out in dirt routes. I do think a mile is her max distance as her second-generation dam side pedigree both feature horses (Distorted Humor and Bsharpsonata) that were able to win graded stakes at a mile. There is also the matter of how she has won her two 6 ½ furlong races. Those two races were won by a combined 17 ½ lengths as she was pulling away from her competitors in each, which certainly hints at the fact she will be fine getting the distance. She’s run well off Lasix before and beaten older females twice. It is always a little risky to bet on a favorite doing something for the first time, but it would appear she fits the bill.

#8 Fancy (6/1) – There are few connections I tend to trust more in Kentucky than trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione who pair up with Fancy in this spot. The daughter of Justify is coming off an allowance win in gate-to-wire fashion, but she will not be able to replicate that trip. The good news for her is that she has won coming from off the pace in some of her previous starts. She drew well to the outside as Gaffalione will be able to judge the early pace scenario and slot her over to a tracking spot while coming out of the chute and down the backstretch. Her Beyer Speed Figures will need to move forward as even her effort two back in the Groupie Doll might not be enough to win. She likes Churchill Downs, having won two of four started under the twin spires and has only missed the exacta once at the mile distance. Despite there being snow on Thursday in Kentucky, it appears conditions will be pleasant for Saturday, which might be a slight note of caution for Fancy as two of her three career victories have come over a wet track. That said, she has been working well for Walsh in the mornings firing off a series of strong works leading up to the race. If Two Sharp struggles to get the distance, I like Fancy as the alternative who can win at a price.

#6 Positano Sunset (10/1) – The horse with the most back class in this field might be the daughter of Goldencents who has knocked heads against the best in the Filly & Mare Sprint division having faced Society, Vahva, Scylla, and Zeitlos. She is a late-running horse who traditionally comes from well off the pace and should be doing that again on Saturday. Do not be fooled by her effort last time out where she tried to wire the first going two turns. Jockey Julien Leparoux has not had much luck winning with this filly, but she’s finished second three of the last four times out including being graded stakes placed. She will be hoping for a strong pace and for a few horses to challenge Two Sharp up on the front end during the early portion of the race to ensure a bit of a pace meltdown late. It was promising to see her run so well last time out going two turns as her record going a mile or longer had not been particularly strong. Two of her three wins have come with Lasix, and she is switching off for Saturday, but she also is one of the only horses in the field who has races in her past fast enough to potentially challenge Two Sharp. I like this one more as an underneath play due to her propensity of coming up just a little short and making a late run.

#2 Pigalle (9/2) – The daughter of Blame is a mile specialist having won five of seven career starts at the distance and is 4-5 in the exacta at Churchill Downs. Most of her efforts have been facing lesser company, but the last two races she has stepped up (switching off Lasix) and run well having won the Groupie Doll over Fancy at Ellis Park before fading to fourth last time out in the Locust Grove (G2) though that race was two turns and 1 1/16 miles, so I am willing to draw a line through that as she is clearly best going one turn. She has flashed good speed in the past but has not made it to the lead the last two races with Saturday’s jockey Luan Machado aboard. If she’s able to get back to some of her previous starts where she went gate-to-wire, then perhaps she can press Two Sharp for the early lead. She has won from off the pace, so she has versatility, and Machado can have her sitting a pocket trip on the rail behind the early speed, but if no one presses Two Sharp, then she could be chasing lone speed, which is a challenge. My other concern, which is the same as with Fancy, is that she simply has never run races fast enough from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint to compete with the favorite, so she will be hoping to either move forward or have Two Sharp regress.