Champagne Stakes Picks

Analysis: If trainer Tom Amoss’s runner #6 It’s Our Time runs back to his impressive 17 ¾ length maiden victory from Saratoga this summer, then the rest of this analysis might simply be academic, but there may be a few reasons to play against the favorite. For starters, horses that debut with a big Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) they can often regress in their next start as they were so cranked up for the debut run, there is only one place to go from there. This is even more pronounced when you see a debut runner score a big victory at Saratoga or Keeneland as there is often increased incentive to win at those exclusive meets.

Therefore, I will be playing against the favorite (who I will get back to shortly), in favor of #9 Talkin who is also a debut winner for trainer Danny Gargan. The $600,000 son of Good Magic broke his maiden at the tricky distance of seven furlongs while coming from off the pace. The way in which he won was particularly telling since there is a good amount of speed signed on for Saturday’s contest and typically you want a horse that can track off the pace when running a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche stays aboard despite having some other options in this field. Kendrick is always an aggressive jockey and play the break from the outside post and slowly work Talkin over as they go down the backstretch. The horse will need to move forward a bit in his second start, but the reality is that once you get past the 94 BSF from It’s Our Time, five other runners in the race were assigned between an 80-83 BSFT in their last race. I believe Talkin will appreciate a little extra ground and will like the pace setup on Saturday.

As for #6 It’s Our Time, he could be the goods. Certainly, the 94 BSF in debut and the overwhelming margin of victory was impressive and speaks to a promising future. He has an outstanding pedigree as he is sired by Not This Time, whose progeny has an average winning distance of 7.2 furlongs and wins at a 19% clip going long on the dirt. On the bottom side, he is the first foals from the stakes winning mare Shea D Summer who was a sprinter, so the combination of speed and stamina is appealing. Looking back at that debut victory, we saw a few horses come back to race again. Fifth-place finisher Supreme Good won his next start while dropping down to face maiden optional claiming company but vastly improved his BSF in the process. Additionally, fourth-place finisher, Forever Man, improved his BSF 14 points in his next start despite it being an also ran fifth-place effort going a mile. From a trainer perspective, Amoss is always good with his two-year-old runners, but interestingly enough, over the last five years he is only 2-22 (9%) with two-year-old in their second start when they won in debut and is 0-6 when that next race is a graded stakes. The horse has been training well down at Churchill Downs in recent weeks, and jockey Luis Saez stays aboard. He should be able to easily track the early pace and could even take the lead for himself if Saez wants to keep him out of trouble. Going gate-to-wire on the lead in a one-turn mile at Aqueduct is not easy, especially stretching out from 6 ½ furlongs, even though he did that impressively.

A horse I nearly considered for my top selection was #8 Napoleon Solo for trainer Chad Summers. The modest $40,000 son of Liam’s Map broke his maiden easily against sale-restricted competition at Saratoga this summer. We saw third-place finisher, Neigh Baby, who lost by over 11 lengths, improve in his next start as he finished second by a neck against the same level of competition. Still, it is fair to wonder what he ran against in debut and whether he can hold his own in this spot. He certainly stacks up on speed figures as his last-out 83 BSF is second-best in the field behind only It’s Our Time. Summers has been putting some serious workouts into this horse leading up to his Grade 1 effort on Saturday with three consecutive bullet workouts including a dazzling 47.2 second four-furlong effort on September 26 that was first of 51. He has great early speed and could challenge It’s Our Time out of the gate, but jockey Joel Rosario has some options as the horse was able to rate in debut, so he could sit a similar trip to Talkin.

Meanwhile, #1 Curtain Call is going to have an interesting trip. The well-regarded son of Tiz the Law for West Point Thoroughbreds is breaking from the inside rail, which is never a spot I like for two-year-olds coming out of the mile chute at Aqueduct. Additionally, he lacks great early speed while the horses to his immediate outside are quicker in the early going of the race, which means he could be forced to take back quite a bit. Coming further off the pace might not be the worst thing considering the amount of early speed signed on in the race, but he will need to move forward from his last two efforts. He has shown promise in his first three races as he lost to Obliteration in debut at Churchill Downs, but that horse came back to win the Sanford (G3) in his next start and finished second in the Saratoga Special (G2) and the Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Curtain Call did manage to win his next start, but it was over a wet track in a five-horse field. He was assigned an 82 BSF for that effort and moved forward to run in the Hopeful (G1) where he was a distant third to Ted Noffey and Buetane. It was not a bad effort, but he ran back the same 82 BSF and needs to show he can move forward against bigger fields over a fast track. I do wonder if he might be better sprinting, but he is the precocious type, and it makes sense they keep him in New York to avoid Ted Noffey down at Keeneland this weekend in the Breeders’ Futurity going two turns and 1 1/16 miles.