Champagne Stakes (G1) Picks

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5

Pace: Expect a lot of speed in the early stages of the Champagne (G1) as I would expect several horses to vie to early contention. From the inside rail, #1 J J Zo Zo (20/1) might be a little outclassed, but the horse needs to be up front to have any chance and drawing the rail on further enforces that decision. Next to him #2 Tip Top Thomas (7/2) will want to go and has outstanding early speed. Expect jockey Manny Franco to get #4 Mo Plex (12/1) into the early mix as that horse can be a handful and getting him out up front can make things easier for him. Meanwhile, horses like #6 Vekoma Ride (8/1), #7 Smoken Wicked (12/), #8 Colonel Bob (30/1), and #9 Executive Order (15/1) all have shown outstanding early speed in their limited races either sitting up front or stalking from a close position in second. With several horses battling each other up front, I would anticipate strong fractions, which sets up nicely for the morning line favorite #10 Chancer McPatrick (6/5) to come from off the pace.

#10 Chancer McPatrick (6/5) – Using deep closers at a short price is typically something I try to avoid. There is limited room for error with a horse coming from off the pace as they must deal with traffic, get the proper setup, and fire their best shot. However, through two races, Chancer McPatrick appears to be the real deal, and I believe is worthy of being a heavy favorite in this field. He has started off his career a perfect 2-2 with impressive come-from-behind victories at Saratoga. In debut he disliked the early kickback and did not hit his best stride until he was angled out and even at the 1/16th pole I did not think he would get there, but his massive stride enveloped the field. The Hopeful (G1) was same song, second verse where he broke poorly, hit the gate, slammed into another horse, and was nearly 10 lengths back early. Again, at the top of the stretch he angled out and blew past the field like it was nothing. On Saturday he has a couple things going for him. First, he draws the far outside post in a one-turn race so he should be able to break well and not feel pressured to get bunched up in traffic as jockey Flavien Prat and slowly guide him over toward the rail down the back stretch and keep him in the two or three path near the back of the pack. Second, there is enough pace combined with the fact all these horses are stretching out to a new distance that he should get the ideal setup. He has the class edge and should get the proper setup. His Beyer Speed Figures are not that overwhelming compared to the rest of the field, but he showed progression from his first-to-second start, which is key and tells me that there is plenty more to tap into on Saturday.

#5 Uncaged (9/2) – Trainer Todd Pletcher has two runners in this year’s renewal of the Champagne (G1) and I prefer his second choice for some of the same reasons I like Chance McPatrick. Uncaged broke his maiden over a muddy sealed track going six furlongs, so whether you can extrapolate from that is a fair critique, but son of Curlin is bred for distance he showed the perfect amount of patience in debut being able to sit off the pace before making his move. His ability to rate sets him apart from several others in this field and if you believe Chancer McPatrick will give himself too much to do turning for home, then Uncaged is the natural alternative. He will be sitting behind aggressive early fractions, but has enough speed to ensure he will be within earshot of the leaders as opposed to Chancer who might be double-digit lengths back. It is noteworthy that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who presumably had a choice, opted to ride his stablemate instead of Uncaged, but the horse picks up Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario who is a strong finisher and knows how to get closers home. His debut Beyer Speed Figure (84) is just barely behind Chancer McPatrick’s best (88) and if he can take a step forward on Saturday then he is a threat.

#2 Tip Top Thomas (7/2) – The #1 Pletcher runner was also impressive in debut and retains the services of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The son of Volatile won in debut but despite the impressive Beyer Speed Figure (85), I think it is fair to question whether stretching out to a mile is going to work for him given the pace scenario. In that debut effort he stalked a strong early pace set by the horse Rookie Card. When he was set down in the stretch you thought he would eventually draw away from Rookie Card, but that did not happen as that runner continued to fight on the inside. Additionally, the third-place finisher, Keewaydin, was coming with a massive late surge and almost got him at the wire. While the horse’s conditioning might improve in his second start, he will again have to deal with aggressive early fractions while stretching out an additional ¼ mile and has a higher caliber of horse chasing him. There is no doubt he has the talent, and he has been working out beautifully in the mornings, but I am just concerned if the pace does him in during the final furlong.

#6 Vekoma Rides (8/1) – Vekoma has the been the big first-crop sire this year with his offspring winning an astonishing 26% of their debut efforts and they are winning at a 23% clip overall. It will be interesting to see how they do as they continue to stretch out as there are currently only three runners who have tried to route on the dirt with one victory. However, you cannot deny how impressive trainer John Kimmel’s colt was in debut when he stalked the early pace and then pulled away down the stretch to win by five lengths while being wrapped up. Despite going off at 4/1, he was the fourth betting choice that day and beat some nice horses who we have not yet seen run back, but it felt like a potentially productive race. Expect jockey Kendrick Carmouche to be aggressive in the early going while breaking from the middle of the field. He might need to contend with speed to his inside and outside, which could be tricky, but the horse can rate, so it gives him options. To this point, speed has been playing well in one-turn mile races over the main track as 87.5% of winners of those races during the BAQ Fall meet have been on or within three lengths of the lead at the half-mile mark. I do think one mile is probably the max for this horse, but he feels like a live runner who will get a good ride and should be able to add some value to your vertical wagers.