Central Park Stakes

MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEK: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Pace: The pace scenario for this turf route is a little tricky, but not for the reason they typically are in New York. Several of these two-year-olds are stretching out for the first time from sprints and have shown some early speed. Who decides to send and who decides to rate will make this a jockeys’ race. You must imagine #10 Swift Sure (8/1) will want to try and save some ground early and has shown good speed sprinting. #7 Manhattan Twist (10/1) is a bit of an X-factor as he is trying turf for the first time but won in debut in gate-to-wire fashion. Meanwhile, George Weaver’s #6 Not for Hire (6/1) wired the field last time out at six furlongs and right next to time, #5 Davy Crockett (5/1) wired them last time out while going two turns. I would expect the horses stretching out will show the best early speed but there should at least be an honest pace to run into for those preferring to close from further back.

#8 Smooth Breeze (8/1) – There are only two horses coming out of facing graded stakes company last time out and Jorge Abreu’s horse is the far better value having only finished a head behind your morning line favorite #9 Early Adopter (3/1). Admittedly, the favorite today had a tough trip last time out, but I am willing to take a modest shot against him with my top pick. Smooth Breeze debuted against NY-breds and won from off the pace before facing open company in the Pilgrim (G2). He ran well and moved forward slightly on his Beyer Speed Figure (59 to 66) despite having to deal with a yielding surface. The track should be firm on Saturday, and I like the fact the horse has shown versatility to sit off horses, but also flashed the requisite speed to save ground going into the first turn. I suspect an honest pace with the son of More Than Ready sitting in a tracking position. Jockey Dylan Davis is up on the mount and has continued to have an incredible 2024 after a sensational summer at Saratoga. Abreu has been working this one nicely since the Pilgrim and the 8/1 morning line price provides good value for a horse that could show more potential on a better racing surface.

#9 Early Adopters (3/1) – Chad Brown’s son of Lope de Vega got up just in time in debut at Saratoga while going two turns against open maiden company before stepping up in the Pilgrim (G2). He had a tough trip in the lane that day as he had to check badly due to Smooth Breeze and eventual winner Zulu Kingdom putting him in a tight spot. The jockey that day, Manny Franco, had to nearly stop his moment and then have him re-rally for third. The top two finishers went on to run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), so that’s not shabby company to keep. The horse has every reason to bounce back with a big effort on Saturday, but he will be bet heavily due to the trip, the connections, and new jockey Flavien Prat being up on the mount. I am a little concerned with the outside post as he does not have the same type of early speed as Smooth Breeze and could be caught wide around both turns or needing to shuffle back to save ground. Prat is a fantastic turf jockey, so I do not doubt he will get a good ride, but the dynamics will be interesting to follow. In a field where there are a lot of last out maiden winners or those who have nearly always faced NY-bred company, the two open company graded stakes starters stand out. I would not leave him off my horizontal tickets and might simply go two deep with my top two choices.

#4 Jack and Jim (9/2) – Jockey Manny Franco is off Early Adopter, but lands on Graham Motion’s entry Jack and Jim who is one of those last out NY-bred maiden winners I mentioned above. The son of Slumber looked good in debut despite a slow start as he tracked down the leaders and got past them late going two turns on the grass. The effort earned him a 71 Beyer Speed Figure, which is higher than anything Early Adopter or Smooth Breeze have run. However, this will be a class test facing open company and winners for the first time. That said, Motion is outstanding at spotting his horses and Franco should be able to ensure a ground-saving trip as some of the horses to his inside will be forward, which should provide him some room to sit mid-pack on the rail throughout most of the trip. Look for this one to start revving up around the far turn and for Franco to try and find an inside seam turning for home. He has a nice turn of foot but will be trying to pass a higher caliber of horse than he faced in debut.

#2 Sounds Like a Plan (6/1) – The son of Twirling Candy offers some very nice value in this field and is a legitimate upset candidate. Trainer Horacio De Paz tried to get this horse on the turf in debut, but it was rained off, though it was a productive race with three next out winners, including Sounds Like a Plan who finally got on the grass and blitzed the field opening six lengths while running 1 1/16 miles. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. is best when he goes and controls things up front, but it feels unlikely that he will be able to get the same trip on Saturday. The #2 post certainly helps and he should be able to secure rail position going into the first turn, but it could be a more contested pace or Santana Jr. could decide to take back and sit a pocket trip. The issue with coming from off the pace, is the horse has yet to show he can do that. He was one-paced in debut, though it can be excused due to the off-turf conditions and then he won gate-to-wire last time out. Can he pass horses is a legitimate question that has yet to be answered. De Paz and Santana Jr. have not gotten off to the greatest start at Aqueduct’s fall meet as they are a combined 0-13 in the exacta, but this horse feels like one who could be sitting on a nice effort. Might not use him in my Pick 5 tickets, but he is one to include if you are betting in exactas and trifectas.