California Crown (G1) Picks

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 28

Pace: The pace dynamics of the first California Crown (G1) appear to be straightforward. Expect the Bob Baffert pair to get out up front and go led by #3 National Treasure who is a different animal when he is on the lead. Jockey Flavien Prat knows how important it is to get him to the front. Meanwhile, jockey Juan Hernandez should have his stablemate, #5 Muth, stalking just to his outside. A potential X-factor is #1 Newgate, the third of three Baffert entries who has good speed on paper but is more likely to secure a pocket trip on the rail under the ride of John Velazquez. Finally, the only non-Baffert runner who might throw their hat in the ring for the early pace is #2 Subsanador with “Big Money” Mike Smith aboard. The horse does not need the lead and, like Muth, prefers to stalk the pace. With only one “need the lead” horse and only a couple of other stalking/tracking types, you can expect moderate fractions for Santa Anita’s main track.

#3 National Treasure – The three-time Grade 1 winner is looking to bounce back after a disappointing performance in Saratoga in the Whitney (G1). However, there are a few reasons to suspect he will be able to do so. First, the race took place over a wet track and throughout his career, this son of Quality Road has shown that he does not like a wet track with an 0-3 record even hitting the board. In all other races he is 8-11 hitting the board with four wins. The other major factor to his success is getting to the lead. In Saratoga last time out, he failed to get anywhere near the front which doomed his chances from the start. Jockey Flavien Prat is making the trip to California for the weekend to ride this Bob Baffert trainee, which is always a positive sign. Prat should be able to get National Treasure up front and one of the things that has become obvious about the horse is that he is simply a different animal up front. He always struggled passing horses and the best way to avoid that issue is to put the horse on the lead. With his stablemate, #5 Muth, representing the only other early speed in the race, I have a hard time imagining the two will run each other ragged with early fractions, particularly since Muth prefers to sit off the pace. Flavien Prat is one of the best in the business and sometimes we can overthink big races. National Treasure has won three of the biggest dirt route races over the last 16 months in the Preakness (G1), Pegasus World Cup (G1), and Met Mile (G1). He will be a tough customer to track down.

#2 Subsanador – If someone were to upset the applecart, I believe it is Richard Mandella’s son of Fortify. Originally running in Argentina, he came up to the United States last year for trainer John Sadler and went off as the favorite in a five-horse San Antonio (G2) field where he promptly finished fourth. However, his next start was a very good runner-up finish in Santa Anita Handicap (G1) before switching barns to Mandella. He dominated competition last time out in the Iselin (G3) at Monmouth Park (side note: always bet Mandella horses when they ship east) and now takes another crack against a Grade 1 field. The horse has plenty of talent and an effective running style as he should be sitting just off the pace of National Treasure and Muth. The distance of nine furlongs should be ideal for him and if he can replicate his last race then he is more than capable of being a logical alternative to the favorites. He has not put together consecutive solid starts since his time back in Argentina, so that might be a concern, but jockey “Big Money” Mike Smith did not get that name by accident as he still has shown the ability to get to the winner’s circle on big days. Expect him to sit no worse than third in the early going and if he can stay close at a track where passing it difficult, then he will have a chance turning for home.

#5 Muth – In many ways Muth’s 2024 campaign was marred by what could have been. The winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) was not allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby (G1) due to the suspension of trainer Bob Baffert from entering horses at Churchill Downs. That suspension has since ceased, but it had to have been frustrating for the connections of Muth to see Mystik Dan win in the first Saturday in May knowing they were 6 ¼ lengths better than that horse in their previous start at Oaklawn Park. Then the son of Nyquist was set to run at the Preakness (G1), but spiked a fever and took a long time to get back to the track. When he did return, connections opted not to enter him in the Pacific Classic (G1) and instead pointed toward the Shared Belief Stakes, which is a softer landing spot. He won the race over an average field where he pressed some aggressive fractions but was still able to pull away at the end. He has never finished out of the exacta in seven races with five career wins. However, this will be his first time facing older horses and his Beyer Speed Figures are a cut below what might be necessary to win on Saturday. His top Beyer is a 98 and five of the six other runners in the field have all eclipsed that mark at some point in their last few races. What he does have going for him is that he possesses an ideal running style where he can stalk the pace before moving on the leader. The issue is whether he is good enough against a tougher group than he has ever faced before.

#6 Senor Buscador – A horse that will always be running against the track out west is Senor Buscador. The winner of the Saudi Cup (G1) earlier this year has earned over $12 million in winnings for trainer Todd Fincher. He is a late-charging runner who can be pace dependent and on Saturday it does not appear that he will get the right setup with National Treasure likely setting his own fractions up front. That said, the horse always makes his run and is second back from his races in the Middle East this spring. He ran fourth in the Pat O’Brien (G2) in his first start off the bench in what appeared to be little more than a leg-stretcher to get back into racing shape. Now Fincher steps him back up against Grade 1 company and the small field might allow him to sit slightly closer to the pace than he does normally, but that has not always been the case. I personally believe he is best around one turn because he will get faster early fractions than sitting behind two turn races out west where speed is often difficult to beat. That said, it would be foolish to leave him off your deeper vertical exotics, but I have a hard time using him on any of my tickets in horizontal wagers.