Busanda Stakes Picks

The 2026 Busanda Stakes is being contested at a mile as opposed to its traditional nine-furlong distance, which opens things up when looking at the potential contenders. None of the runners overwhelm you with their Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs), but certainly #3 Shilling for trainer Kenny McPeek seems to fit the bill of a horse that will appreciate cutting back to a mile after fading to a distant fourth in the Demoiselle (G2) last time out. Prior to that start she won the Tempted Stakes going a mile at Aqueduct, while besting Believable who is again one of her primary rivals on Saturday. The daughter of Global Campaign might not have a huge pedigree, but that’s a Kenny McPeek special. Remember, he won the Kentucky Derby with a $40,000 Goldencents named Mystik Dan and turned a $40,000 Fast Anna filly into the 2024 Horse of the Year in Thorpedo Anna. McPeek has as good an eye as there is in the business and he seems to like something about the Global Campaigns given one of his top Kentucky Derby contenders this year, Universe, who is the 3/1 second choice in Saturday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, shares the same sire. On the track, Shilling has outstanding early speed and has only won in frontrunning fashion, which could prove a challenge, but I have faith in the young jockey Chris Elliott. Elliott has done a great job riding McPeek’s juveniles this year as he is 6-27 (22%) across a variety of surfaces, distances, and class levels. I think Shilling gets up close and relishes the cutback to a one-turn mile.

Underneath, I keep coming back to #2 Britain for Chad Brown as she is the $1,050,000 daughter of Quality Road with some clear expectations. She was easily beaten by Shilling in debut in October going seven furlongs but came back to score a nice win in her second start to break her maiden. She can sit off the pace and should appreciate stretching out to a mile in her third start. However, jockey Flavien Prat hops off the mount to take over on Believable and Manny Franco fills in, which is not necessarily a negative given Franco and Brown have a good relationship with plenty of stakes success. Still, when the #1 jockey in your colony opts to go in a different direction it likely tells you his opinion of the horse. However, despite Prat’s opinion, Britain is the type of horse that could make a big move forward stretching out and get the right type of trip behind the early pacesetters. Plus, she will be a better price. The other underneath play is more logical and is #6 Believable for trainer Todd Pletcher. As previously mentioned, Prat takes over the mount and she draws the outside post, which is perfect for this one-turn race. Much like Britain, she has some expectations given she was an $800,000 purchase for Mike Repole and has a big-time pedigree as she is sired by Curlin out of a Tapit mare. However, her pedigree couldn’t help her in the Demoiselle (G2) where she faded badly going nine furlongs. I am hoping the cutback helps and she can show her talent with a new jockey aboard.