Breeders' Futurity (G1) Picks

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 5

Pace: Unlike the Champagne (G1) on Saturday that features a significant amount of early speed, the pace scenario in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) seems clearer as #5 East Avenue (3/1) is the speed of the speed for trainer Brendan Walsh as the horse won in gate-to-wire fashion in debut at Ellis Park going six furlongs. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione should get him out up front early and that Keeneland can be a speed favoring track. Expect #1 Ferocious (8/5) to secure a pocket trip on the rail sitting behind the early speed horses as he tries two turns for the first time. A horse from the outside who should also be stalking the pace is #10 Dapper Moon (9/2) who hopped at the start in debut but was intently stalking the pace in his maiden-breaking victory last time out. Finally, Todd Pletcher’s #9 Tenacious Leader (8/1) could be tracking as well, but likely lacks the early speed to press the pace. With the way Keeneland’s track plays, expect the winner to come from the front group.

#10 Dapper Moon (9/2) – I will take a modest stand against the morning line favorite with a Louisiana-bred trained by Dallas Stewart who had a terrible debut effort where he hopped at the start and was last in the early going and was still sitting in a middling position halfway through the homestretch. However, jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. must have realized he had plenty of horse because he kept after this son of Malibu Moon and eventually guided him to the middle of the track where he hit the afterburners and went from sixth to second in the final sixteenth of the race. He could not catch the winner, Incentive Pay, who went on to run third in the Hopeful (G1) behind Ferocious and Chancer McPatrick. However, next time out, Santana Jr. got the horse in a perfect stalking position, and he blew away the competition going seven furlongs, which bodes well for handling the two-turn test on Saturday. I love the outside post position as the horse has good early speed and should be able to cross over most of the field and sit in a stalking position outside of East Avenue. Love his workouts down at Churchill Downs leading up to the race on Saturday and I think he is sitting on a big effort and could surprise at a price considering how much attention the top two choices will get from the betting public.

#1 Ferocious (8/5) – A dazzling debut winner, this son of Flatter has had high expectations from the start as he was purchased for $1.3 million in the OBS April Sales this year and then backed up the lofty price tag by romping in debut at Saratoga going six furlongs over a muddy sealed track. He went off as the 3/5 favorite in the Hopeful (G1), which ended up being a potentially educational (or red flag) trip. He broke well and was sitting the ideal trip tracking the pace and looked to make a move around the turn but appeared to have flattened out until Chance McPatrick came storming by and then Ferocious re-engaged, switched back to his wrong lead, and ran past the field (expect for Chancer McPatrick). It was an odd performance. We found out after the race that the horse lost a shoe, which could have contributed to the uneven effort. That said, the horse showed a fair amount of greenness lugging out and flattening out in the stretch before that final burst. He looked so professional in debut that it seemed like a step back, but one could also look at the effort in a positive light as the horse regressed from his maiden-breaking victory and still ran second by a half length in a Grade 1. He has been working out great in Saratoga preparing for the race and the footage of him galloping at Keeneland certainly looks impressive. If he handles the two turns and show a little more focus and professionalism, he should be sitting an ideal trip on the rail just behind the early speed. He does pick up his third jockey in three starts as Luis Saez takes over, but there are few better to handle this horse at Keeneland. All of that said, I still have some lingering questions about whether he will be able to get back to that debut effort and how much he will appreciate added ground.

#5 East Avenue (3/1) – The son of Medaglia d’Oro has a good chance to wire the field on Saturday. The Godolphin homebred possesses outstanding early speed and will be up front early under the ride from Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Brendan Walsh. Keeneland can have a speed-favoring bias on the main track, which means early speed horses can be dangerous as Gaffalione should be able to set whatever fractions he wants on the frontend as there is unlikely to be anyone else aggressively pressing the issue. There is very little doubt the horse will be able to handle the distance based off his pedigree and how easily he won in debut at Ellis Park. One potential knock on him is the level of competition as the Ellis Park field was hardly overwhelming with the runner-up horse, Poppa Echo, regressing badly in his second start a couple weeks ago at Churchill Downs. In fact, the top three horses who have run back from that race have all regressed significantly in their next starts, which begs the question who this horse really beat. The other major question is whether Luis Saez decides to be aggressive with Ferocious and go straight to the front, which might force East Avenue into a wider trip while stalking the pace, which would be a new experience. Both Gaffalione and Saez are veteran’s of Keeneland know how the main track can play, so expect some interesting riding tactics heading into the first turn.

#9 Tenacious Leader (8/1) – I debated using #6 Filoso (12/1) in this spot as he also came out of the Incentive Pay maiden race at Saratoga, like Dapper Moon, and both went on to win impressive in their next starts. The horse has talent, won at a mile, and picks up jockey John Velazquez, which is always a positive. However, trainer Chad Summers is 1-23 (4%) over the last five years with last out maiden winners, so I landed on a horse that is going back to the dirt. Tenacious Leader was unremarkable in debut at 5 ½ furlongs and it appeared that Todd Pletcher was intent to send him to the grass as he entered him in a turf race for his second start. However, rain was taken off the grass and he ended up winning over the main track at Saratoga going a mile. He followed that up with a closer runner-up effort in the With Anticipation (G3) over the turf where he lost to Zulu Kingdom who we have seen come back to win the Pilgrim (G2) just last week. The horse loses regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. for Florent Geroux but should have enough speed to be sitting a tracking trip within a few lengths of the early pace. The fact the horse handled the distance before (albeit on the turf) should be viewed as a positive, though it’ll be interesting to see what his best surface will be moving forward.