Breeders' Cup Juvenile Picks

Analysis: Future Stars Friday is always so much fun because the Juvenile (G1) gives us our first taste of some of the horses will be prominent on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1). This year’s group of seven runners is loaded with talent, but one horse does stand out, which is #8 Ted Noffey (4/5). The odds-on favorite has looked the part in all three career starts as he won professionally in debut going 6 ½ furlongs at Saratoga. The eye-opening performance was his next race where he decimated the field in the Hopeful (G1) by over eight lengths while finishing under wraps. Last time out he passed the two-turn test as he won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland while going Friday’s distance of 1 1/16 miles. He possesses good early speed, but seems to prefer tracking close to the pace, which should work out nicely in this field as a couple horse to his inside will go out for the lead and he can rate behind them in the early going. He has shown steady progression in his Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs), and he was able to largely backup his 98 BSF in the Hopeful (G1) when he stretched out to two turns in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last time out when he was assigned a 97 BSF. The Spendthrift Farm runner by their legendary sire Into Mischief is “named” after Spendthrift’s General Manager Ned Toffey and his $650,000 price tag shows the expectations. Hall of Famer John Velazquez remains on the mount and there are few riders I trust more guiding a juvenile than Velazquez who is an expert at getting horses away from the gate well and getting them to relax. The Del Mar track can be speed favoring and last year we saw the top two finishers, Citizen Bull and Gaming, run 1-2 all the way around the track. This year’s race feels different as trainer Bob Baffert, who has both Citizen Bull and Gaming last year (and Brant and Litmus Test this year), does not control all the early speed. I am uncertain whether Ted Noffey will be a major player in 2026 as the races stretch out to nine furlongs and beyond, but for right now, he is a horse that appears primed to run a big race on Friday.

If I am going to pick an odd-on favorite up top, then I will try to get a little creative underneath and that is why I will take a shot with #1 Intrepido (8/1) for trainer Jeff Mullins. The son of Maximus Mischief won the American Pharaoh (G1) last time out at Santa Anita as he passed the two-turn test impressive with a late burst as he surged past Baffert’s promising runner Desert Gate. The former $385,000 purchase started off his career sprinting 5 ½ furlongs against Brant but has excuses for his poor effort that day as he broke last but still managed to pick up and pass over half the field by finishing fourth. He broke his maiden next time out going one mile at Del Mar, which set up his big Grade 1 win in his last effort. He does not elite early speed but seems content to sit mid-pack. So long as jockey Hector I. Berrios can able to get him away from the gate in good order, he should be able to sit behind much of the early speed while saving every inch of ground. In a field where some have not run the distance yet and others have faded in their lone two-turn attempt, I like the fact he has run around the oval twice and won both times while improving his BSF each time. The fact it is a smaller field of seven also gives me a bit more confidence as even if he finds himself shuffled back to fifth or sixth, he should not be that far from the pace and will have the opportunity to make a run at the top of the stretch. I view him as a horse that is good to include in your vertical gimmicks as he can run up into something as a bit of a price.

Speaking of price, the biggest price tag in the field belongs to #7 Brant (5/2) who sold for $3 million as the OBS March Sale. The son of Gun Runner should appreciate going two turns, but Friday will be his first race beyond seven furlongs. I do not love taking a two-year-old doing something for the first time at a short price and Brant is going to face a big test in terms of the caliber of competition and distance of the race. While he put the racing world on notice with his stunning 101 BSF debut, his stride also drew a great deal of attention as he has a noticeable paddle action, which concerns me as he stretches out to a new distance. The inefficiency in his stride is something that has not caught up with him yet, but as the races get longer and the fields get more competitive, it will be a challenge for him. Expect jockey Flavien Prat to send the Bob Baffert trainee straight to the front as the horse went forward last time out in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) going seven furlongs. While he won that race as the 1/9 favorite, I believed his stablemate Desert Gate ran the better race encountering significant trip issues and only losing by a length. The fact Intrepido bested Desert Gate in his next start is why I am fading Brandt down to third. You also had the speed figures to consider as Brandt regressed from a 101 BSF to a 91 BSF when he stretched out from 5 ½ furlongs to seven furlongs. The 91 BSF already puts him significantly behind Ted Noffey and if he regresses again going two turns, then he might struggle to hit the board. There is no doubt the horse has the talent but am I not sure it is as simple as getting out up front and not stopping, which was the case last year with Baffert’s Citizen Bull.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has a few nice juveniles this year and #2 Blackout Time (5/1) is not exception. The son of Not This Time debuted at Churchill Downs going six furlongs and finished second that day. However, he has moved forward as the races have gotten longer as he broke his maiden in his second start at Ellis Park when he went a mile and then finished second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last time out as he improved his BSF to a career-best 93. He has shown the ability to pass horses, but it is noteworthy his maiden breaking victory came basically in gate-to-wire fashion. Last time out he made a mild bid from a forward position but could never threaten Ted Noffey but was able to blow by fellow Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) entrant #6 Litmus Test (15/1). For Friday, McPeek turns to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. who will take over from Cristian Torres and there are few jockeys better at maximizing the talent of horses than Ortiz Jr. who should relish sitting a pocket trip and, along with Ted Noffey, get first run at the horses in front of him. Much like Intrepido, Blackout Time has shown a steady progression in his BSF, and it is promising his last race going two turns was his best one yet. I wish he were a slightly bigger price, but it’s possible Brandt and Ted Noffey take so much money than others start to float up as Blackout Time is a serious horse that could upset or enrich vertical wagers.