Breeders' Cup Juvenile Picks

Pace: Projecting pace in Breeders’ Cup races can be a challenge as they are often faster, particularly on dirt, than you might expect as there is often some urgency to get a horse near the front to keep them out of trouble. In the case of the Juvenile, several of these two-year-olds have a natural running style that will put them near the front of the field going into the first turn. Starting from the inside rail, #1 East Avenue (5/2) has gone gate-to-wire in both career starts and will be prominent early with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. #2 Getaway Car (20/1) for trainer Bob Baffert has outstanding early speed and will make things difficult for East Avenue with jockey Juan Hernandez aboard who is best when he goes to the front. Meanwhile, #4 Ferocious (6/1) has good early speed and could track the pace but might also take some initiative to be forward due to the traffic issues he encountered last time out against East Avenue in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). #5 Jonathan’s Way has a versatile running style having come from well back in debut but winning the Iroquois (G3) in frontrunning fashion. Meanwhile, both of Bob Baffert’s other two entries, #6 Citizen Bull (10/1) and #7 Gaming (8/1), both have gate-to-wire wins in their past, but the latter seems more likely to rate while the former won the American Pharaoh (G1) up front and could go to the lead again. Then you have a pair of Japanese entries, #8 Shin Believe (10/1) and #9 Ecoro Azel (30/1), and those runners tend to be forwardly placed in their races though Ecoro Azel has come from off the pace before in a loss. I would expect a strong pace and for East Avenue to be challenged in a way that he has not yet been challenged, which could set things up for #10 Chance McPatrick (3/1)

#10 Chancer McPatrick (3/1) – The late-running two-year-old from trainer Chad Brown has been described as “an old soul” in the barn due to his professional disposition for a youngster. One thing that cannot be denied is that he is a winner having come out on top in all three career starts including the Hopeful (G1) and the Champagne (G1). The son of first-crop sire McKinzie barely got up in debut against maidens at Saratoga but showed incredible late acceleration in the lane to track everyone down. He did the same thing in the Hopeful (G1) where he dueled with #4 Ferocious (6/1) down the stretch. However, the reason I have him as my top pick, aside from the pace setup, was his effort in the Champagne (G1) where jockey Flavien Prat made a crucial decision to fly past 75% of the field around the far turn. Unlike his first two efforts, when Chance McPatrick straightened out turning for home, he only had one horse to pass rather than most of the field. He went past a very nice Todd Pletcher horse, Tip Top Thomas, with ease to get the win. Prat knows Del Mar as well as anyone and likely knows that Chancer McPatrick must make his move around the far turn so that he does not have as much work to do in the short stretch. As outlined above, he will get the pace setup with East Avenue facing more pressure in the early stages than he has in his first two races so Brown’s horse should start picking them off around the turn. He has yet to stretch out to two turns, but his running style and pedigree both point to getting more distance and the outside post is not an issue as he will gladly let a majority of the field go out up front before moving over toward the rail behind them going into the first turn. In fact, I would prefer an outside post position as I am not sure he loves kickback given the head-on shot of him going down the backstretch at Saratoga in debut where he was throwing his head when stuck behind horses. Prat can leave him in the clear and slowly guide him over to a comfortable spot and traveling wide has never been an issue before.

#1 East Avenue (5/2) – The son of Medaglia d’Oro has turned heads this week at Del Mar. He has dazzled in the mornings with the way in which he has floated over the track during workouts as this Godolphin-bred for Brendan Walsh is looking to remain perfect. He won wrapped up in debut at Ellis Park over a field that did feature a next out winner, Built, who cruised to victory in a $100,000 MSW at Keeneland. Next time out, East Avenue went to the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and romped against on the front end where he showed he can get two turns and where it was reported jockey Tyler Gaffalione had a hard time pulling him up after the race due to how strong the horse continued to gallop past the wire. However, both victories came in the same fashion as he won gate-to-wire and, more importantly, he was never pressed for early fractions and was able to get comfortable up front. That is unlikely to be the case on Friday as there is a ponderous of speed horses to his outside, and not just any speed horses, but Bob Baffert trained speed horses who know how to fly around the track at Del Mar. He also drew the inside rail, which can be advantageous regarding saving ground, but also does not leave as much room for error if he does not break cleanly and risks the chance of getting shuffled back. Trainer Brendan Walsh has said that East Avenue has trained behind horses and does not appear to mind kickback. I believe Walsh, but it’s one thing to do that in the mornings and another thing entirely to do that in the afternoons against the best competition he has ever faced. Even if he does get to the lead, it will not be uncontested, and I question whether he can sustain that when being hounded in much the same way we saw a horse like Arthur’s Ride fold in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when he was pressed early. However, there is no denying the talent and it hardly be shocking to see this horse in the winner’s circle and as an early Kentucky Derby favorite on Friday night.

#7 Gaming (8/1) – Are you really going to leave a Bob Baffert two-year-old out of the trifecta at Del Mar? Historically, Baffert has not done well where the turf meets the surf the other two times the track hosted the Breeders’ Cup as he was only 1-19 winning, but that win came in this race (Corniche in 2021). Baffert has three entries, but I’m highest on Gaming who is also sired by a first-crop stallion Game Winner. Unlike McKinzie, Game Winner has not had quite as much early success, but Gaming is the exception to the rule as he is the ONLY progeny from his sire’s first crop to win in debut (1-36). He backed up that win at Del Mar with another win over the track in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) where he put away the other two Baffert runners on Friday, Citizen Bull and Getaway Car, but then Baffert opted not to run him in the American Pharoah. In some ways, it felt like maybe Baffert was letting some of his other horses get a win rather than running them against this horse again, but that is simply speculation. In any event, he has been working out beautifully leading up to Friday’s big race and has gotten the customary big six-furlong workout from Baffert which is usually a great sign that his horse is sitting on a massive effort. The thing I like most about Gaming is his versatility. He won gate-to-wire in debut, but then rated effectively off the pace winning the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and showed no problem passing other horses. Like Chancer McPatrick, he will be trying two turns for the first time, but that hardly appears to be an issue, and his workouts show good conditioning.

#5 Jonathan’s Way (9/2) – One of the more impressive horses to debut at Saratoga, Jonathan’s Way has the type of versatility you love to see out of a young horse. He faced immediate obstacles in debut with a tough start, but never panicked and made a huge move around the far turn before making another move in the stretch to pull away and win easily while going from nearly last to first. It was the type of move that gave me confidence in him second time out when he won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs to earn the first 10 points toward qualifying for the starting gate in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. However, unlike in debut, he broke cleanly and went straight to the front. He won easily holding off highly regarded Owen Almighty who was already a stakes winners prior to that race. His Beyer Speed Figures (85 and 90) put him right in the conversation with the top colts in his crop and trainer Phil Bauer might not have the national profile of someone like Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher but is an excellent horseman who is not getting a chance to show it with top two-year-old males. The Ohio-bred son of Vekoma is yet another offspring from a first-crop sire. I do have some questions about how well Vekoma’s will stretch out long-term, but there is no doubt they are precocious and to this point he has seen solid returns from his offspring when they are going a mile or longer (25% winning). Ultimately, jockey Joel Rosario has some options in this race due to Jonathan’s Way’s versatility and will likely take up a stalking position rather than trying to contend for the early lead going into the first turn. He will also be trying to get two turns for the first time having maxed out at a mile to this point, but he finished both of his previous races strong, which gave no indication that two turns would be an issue. I could easily see this horse winning on Friday, which speaks to what a formidable group it is when my fourth choice has only a slightly lesser chance to win than my top selection. Buckle up. It’s going to be one heck of a race.

Bet the Breeders' Cup Juvenile