2025 Breeders' Cup Classic Picks

The Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is an amazing collection of talent, but this year’s renewal will sadly be remembered as a “what if” moment as morning line favorite Sovereignty scratched on Wednesday morning after having a sustained fever. It is a blow for sure as the winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), and Travers (G1) was set to compete against older horses for the first time and potentially cement his name next to some all-time great horses. The good news for betters is the field still features the top three from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in the form of Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young. They’re joined by an incredibly talented collection of three-year-olds and older horses including multiple Grade 1 winners Mindframe and Journalism. Perhaps the most notable horse in the field does not hold the accolades of the rest, but Contrary Thinking has spurred a great deal of debate as he has been entered for the express purpose of being a “rabbit” for his stablemate Sierra Leone who is a late-running horse who requires a strong pace.

Sovereignty was going to be my top pick, but the horse who kept growing in my estimation while handicapping race was #8 Mindframe (6/1) who trainer Todd Pletcher referred to as a “generational talent” while being interviewed leading up to the race. Mind you, Pletcher also trains the new morning line favorite #1 Fierceness (5/2), but it’s Mindframe that draws that compliment from the normally reserved trainer. It is understandable why Pletcher feels the way he does. The son of Constitution debuted in the spring of his three-year-old season and thoroughly impressed viewers by blowing away the competition by more than 13 lengths while going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park. He stepped up to a two-turn allowance optional claiming race in his next start at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard and upstaged his more ballyhooed stablemate Fierceness who was a dud later in the day as the Kentucky Derby (G1) post time favorite. From there, Pletcher and owner Mike Repole opted to let Mindframe take the baton from Fierceness, who had not yet recovered from his Kentucky Derby (G1) effort, to run in the Belmont Stakes (G1). I was firmly against him that day stretching out to the 1 ¼ mile distance, switching off Lasix, and running against graded stakes company for the first time in his third career start. While he did not win, he proved my skepticism wrong as he ran a huge race and got to the lead in the stretch before he got a little green and drifted out, which allowed Dornoch to re-rally on the rail. Those two faced off again in the Haskell (G1) and it was the same song second verse as he against got to the lead only to relinquish it to Dornoch in the stretch. He was sent to the bench for seven months after the Haskell (G1) and came back with a vengeance in 2025 as he swept the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and Stephen Foster (G1) in his first three starts of the year. To win graded stakes races at seven, eight, and nine furlongs in consecutive starts is a rare accomplishment. He entered the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga in August as his final prep and chance to finally win at the Classic distance, but his efforts were derailed shortly after the start there was a chain reaction of bumping caused by jockey Kendrick Carmouche and Phileas Fogg, which resulted in Mindframe’s jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., being dismounted within the first couple hundred yards. Despite the setback, Pletcher and Repole remained undaunted in pointing Mindframe toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). As for Mindframe’s chances on Saturday, he possesses very good early speed and draws toward the outside, which will allow jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to play the break and use the entire homestretch to work the horse over for a tracking/mid-pack trip likely within four-to-six lengths of the leaders. He will let horses like Fierceness, Nevada Beach, and Contrary Thinking set the fractions, but will sit a couple lengths behind them in a perfect spot to make the first move. While I expect a strong pace, I do not expect the blazing fractions we saw in last year’s Breeders’ Cup when they went sub-45 seconds to the half mile and 1:09 to the six-furlong mark. If the pace is honest, but not insane, then Mindframe’s tracking trip will be perfect as he will be close to the pace to make a move but far enough from it not to get burned out. There are few jockeys I trust more with a tracking trip in dirt route races than Irad Ortiz Jr. who knows exactly when to move his horse and the correct path to choose for it to be the winning one. Additionally, Ortiz Jr.’s four wins in Breeders’ Cup’s hosted at Del Mar ties him for the most among jockeys. I think Mindframe could prove his trainer accurate about being a generational talent and being able to get 6/1 odds is the icing on the cake.

There is no more consistent horse in big races than hard charging #7 Sierra Leone (7/2) who has never missed the board in 13 career starts. The trouble is that he often needs the proper setup to wind up in the winner’s circle, which was the case last year as he burned money in the Belmont (G1), Jim Dandy (G2), and Travers (G1) where he went off favored and failed to deliver. Of course, the second everyone jumped off him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), he delivered a career-defining performance storming from well back to blow by Fierceness in the stretch to win at Del Mar. 2025 has been a similar story as he started off the year with a dull effort in the New Orleans Classic (G2) where he finished third, but you could excuse the effort since he was coming off the bench. He then lost to Mindframe in his next start in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs on a day where his fellow Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) entrant got jump and modest fractions, which leads us to Contrary Thinking. The allowance horse was purchased by Peter Brandt who is part owner of Sierra Leone for the express purpose of entering him in Sierra Leone’s races to infuse more pace and wear down horses up front, which will set things up for his late-charging stablemate. The use of a “rabbit” is nothing new is horse racing and you can point to plenty of historical examples of them being used in big races. It is less common to see today in big races, which has led to quite a bit of debate regarding whether Contrary Thinking should be allowed to run in the Classic (G1) as he does not have the qualifications to do so, but was supplemented in the field to the tune of $150,000. Contrary Thinking was already use to great effect in the Whitney (G1) as he pestered Sierre Leone’s primary rival Fierceness when he circled in front of him around the first turn and pushed an aggressive pace, which was one factor that led to Fierceness fading in the stretch while Sierra Leone went flying by everyone for the win. They went back to do the same thing in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), but that race was marred by the early spill in which Sierra Leone tried to avoid running over fallen jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and found himself well back early and much further back at the top of the stretch than he has been in recent starts. He still rallied for second behind Antiquarian and while the result was understandable, it also shows just how little margin of error there is for Sierra Leone to put together a winning trip against top-tiered competition. Ultimately, the $2.3 million son of Gun Runner is going into his final with a pace setup that should give him a fair chance at the top of the stretch, but this is a deeper field than he beat last year and a better field than what he beat in the Whitney (G1). He will need to bring his “A” game and hope for the same setup as before. He is incapable of running a bad race, which will lead me to putting him second, as he will be running late. The question is whether the rest of the field is backing up to him or not.

Another participant in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) is #5 Forever Young (7/2) as the Japanese import is making his third start in North America after racing in the United States twice in 2024. He is the biggest money earner in the field having won over $15 million in prize money, in large part due to his victory in this year’s Saudi Cup (G1), which came over fellow international superstar Romantic Warrior. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi brought Japan their first two Breeders’ Cup victories back at Del Mar in 2021 and capturing the Classic would be the Crown Jewel for a country who has been seeking international glory. Forever Young’s first two times in the United States resulted in a thrilling third-place finish in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1), but he lost by a nose to Mystik Dan and Forever Young. He then came back for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and finished third again. He has nine wins in 12 career starts and has shown significant physical improvement as a four-year-old. Much like Mindframe, he will sit behind early speed but can drift further back to mid-pack if the pace gets too hot. Forever Young will not dazzle you with early speed and he does not have stunning late acceleration Sierra Leone possesses, but what he does have is the ability to grind away at his foes. He just keeps coming, which was the case in his victory last year over multiple Grade 1 winner Book ‘em Danno in the Saudi Derby (G3) as well as in this year’s Saudi Cup (G1) over Romantic Warrior. The 1 ¼ mile distance is perfect for him as he does not tire, but his lack of a significant punch could put him at a disadvantage to Sierra Leone and Mindframe who are a bit more dynamic. That said, he is going to be included in all my Pick 5 and multi-race sequence tickets because he is too dangerous to omit and could be a tempting price come post time.

I could put #1 Fierceness (5/2) fourth as I think that is a completely reasonable spot to place him, but I just do not love the post position draw. Yes, he won the Pacific Classic (G1) from the inside post position at this track while encountering significant obstacles. He also did that against a field that featured Journalism, who received an atrocious ride, and a bunch of horses who would be 40-1 or higher if they were entered in this field. Let’s just be honest about who he beat that day. Yes, it was great to see him show improved mental maturity and overcome nearly running into the temporary railing out of the chute while handling kickback on the inside. The issue on Saturday is that he draws to the inside of both Contrary Thinking and Nevada Beach. Those two will make his life difficult in the early stages and could make it more challenging for Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez to get Fierceness to relax up front in the clear. As a result, I am going with the aforementioned #9 Journalism (5/1) in the fourth spot as I believe the jockey change to Jose Ortiz will have a positive impact and the horse should get a nice setup, particularly with his nemesis, Sovereignty, out of the race. Replacing a jockey on an elite horse before his biggest race of the year is a risk for trainer Michael McCarthy and the Eclipse Thoroughbreds ownership group, however, I believe it to be justified. Go back and watch previous jockey Umberto Rispoli ride Journalism in the five-horse Santa Anita Derby (G1) back in April. He managed to get behind the one horse that was clearly going to back up going two turns and gave fellow Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) entrant Baeza a five-length head start. The horse managed to drag Rispoli across the wire despite the ride, which was a common refrain. Something similar happened in the Preakness (G1) where Rispoli again made a split-second decision that put the horse in a tough spot turning for home and then made a bad decision worse by forcing his way between two horses that resulted in Clever Again getting slammed into the rail. Again, the horse bailed out Rispoli as he found another gear and tracked down Gosger at the wire. Last time out in the Pacific Classic (G1), the race was over the first time by the grandstands as Rispoli inexplicitly had the horse 10 lengths off the pace and dealing with vicious kickback despite the fact this is the same horse that showed the ability to closely track the pace going shorter distances when he was younger. I saw all this not to beat up on Rispoli as being a jockey is a thankless, not to mention dangerous, profession where people can second-guess you from the comfort of their living room. I point all this out to demonstrate the repeated difficulties Journalism has faced and I believe Ortiz, who is tied with his brother atop the Breeders’ Cup jockey standings when it’s hosted at Del Mar, can have a positive impact. Ortiz is outstanding at getting horses out of the gate in good order and is particularly adept in dirt route racing, which should allow Journalism to sit a much more realistic mid-pack or tracking trip. The horse is training beautifully and looks amazing, but that is typically the case with Journalism. I believe he can give a good run on Saturday and challenge at the top of the stretch. I do not believe he is in the same elite status as others and the difference between he and Journalism on Saturday will be the trips, which I expect to be the opposite of the last time they faced off in the Pacific Classic (G1).