Breeders' Cup Classic Picks
MUST BET RACE OF THE WEEK: SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2
Del Mar, Race 8, Breeders' Cup Classic, Post Time-5:41 PM
Pace: The pace scenario could be as simple as #12 Arthur’s Ride (15/1) going straight to the lead. Jockey Junior Alvarado could send the big Bill Mott trainee to the front just as he did in the Whitney (G1), and it is lights out for everyone else in the field as the horse appears dominant when he is left alone up front. However, I have a hard time believing he will get an easy trip in a 14-horse field. There is speed to the inside with horses like #1 Forever Young (6/1), #2 Highland Falls (20/1), #4 Mixto (30/1), #6 Derma Sotogake (20/1) who is getting blinkers added, and #9 Fierceness (3/1). This leaves out of the equation #3 City of Troy (5/2) who has good speed in turf races in Europe, but is untested over the dirt, so it is hard to project how his speed will translate. While none of these horses “need” the lead the way Arthur’s Ride does, there projects to be several horses that could press the pace, which is what we saw Highland Falls do to Arthur’s Ride at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga this summer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Arthur’s Ride promptly faded with a furlong to go. Del Mar tends to be a speed-favoring track, but it can play a little differently in the fall than it does in the summer. Plus, the last time Del Mar hosted the Breeders’ Cup in 2021 we saw several off-the-pace winners in dirt routes. While I do not expect a blistering pace, I do expect several horses to be close and vying for the stalking trip.
#1 Forever Young (6/1) – The Japanese have been building toward this moment for a long time. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was hosted at Del Mar, Japan won their first two Breeders’ Cup races (Marche Lorraine and Loves Only You) within an hour of each other. They have won the Dubai World Cup (G1) and this year they came within a nose of winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) with Forever Young. Now, they turn their sights on the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Forever Young’s chances loom large. He has the exact same record as City of Troy with six wins in seven starts. His only loss was at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May after he flew halfway around the world to compete and lost by a nose in a race that probably should have been reviewed by the stewards for interference. He recently came back from a lengthy layoff to easily best the competition in the Japan Dirt Classic. The son of Real Steel is a dynamic runner and one who has continued to physically mature since the spring. What makes him such a formidable horse is his versatility. He can win coming from well off the pace or by stalking the early lead. Breaking from the inside rail will allow him to save all of the ground, but he must make sure he cleans up his gate issues. He has a habit of either stumbling or getting jostled out of the starting gate. With some speed horses to his outside, he must get away cleanly, even if he does not contest for the early lead simply to ensure he does not get shuffled too far back. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi trained the first (and only) two Japanese Breeders’ Cup winners and knows what it takes to win all over the world. Forever Young presents good value and is a horse that only seems to get better the longer the race goes on. He is bred for this race and for many casual racing fans (and those in the industry) this could serve as a wakeup call that American dirt racing dominance might be slipping from our fingers.
#2 Highland Falls (20/1) – If you’re looking for a horse bred for distance, look no further than this son of Curlin out of 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Round Pond. Highland Falls has often been an overlooked horse due to him breaking his maiden so late into his three-year-old season. However, Curlin offspring notoriously are late-developing, and this one is no exception. The Brad Cox trainee won in debut and then graduated through allowance and optional claiming competition quickly before shipping out to Santa Anita to run fourth in the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap (G1). That was the last race in which he finished out of the exacta. He lost to Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) before winning the Blame (G3). Following up that victory he had a tough trip when former jockey Florent Geroux was aboard in the Monmouth Cup (G3). However, when jockey Flavien Prat took over for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he looked like a different horse as he hounded Arthur’s ride into submission before drawing off to win impressively. Now, we see another jockey, Luis Saez, climb aboard and I believe that is a good fit. Saez is aggressive out of the gate and will ensure the horse is prominently placed on the inside, likely tracking from the third position while saving ground. I have no questions about distance or stamina with Highland Falls and I have even less of a doubt regarding the connections. Trainer Brad Cox is winning a remarkable 27% of his Breeders’ Cup entries during his career, which is the highest mark of active North American trainers with over 20 starters. Additionally, over the last month, the Cox barn has been on a tear as over the last 40 days, he has won 60% (15-25) of his stakes races nationwide. Combine a great pedigree with a horse that is improving at a significant price for a barn that is on a hot streak, Highland Falls offers plenty to like.
#14 Next (8/1) – With all due respect to City of Troy, there is not a horse in the field I am more eager to see run than Next. The great dirt marathoner is going to take his shot against the Classic division in a showdown so many hardcore racing fans have anticipated. The son of Not This Time has won his last seven races (dating back to June of 2023) by a combined 91 ¾ lengths with the closest margin of victory being a 2 ½ length victory in last year’s Brooklyn (G2). During this stretch of dominance, he has recorded seven straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figures and done so without ever being asked the question. Jockey Luan Machado looks like a workout rider on him as he hardly moves a muscle as the horse takes over and puts away races. However, there has been a lingering question of whether he can shorten up, run faster fractions early, and compete at this level. We will find out on Saturday, but I am bullish on his chances. He won the 2024 Brooklyn (G2) by 9 ¼ lengths over Crupi, which is the same Crupi who came back to run second in the Whitney (G1) to Arthur’s Ride by 2 ¼ lengths in his next start. Additionally, the Brooklyn (G2) is a good example for how he might run on Saturday since it is the shortest of his races (1 3/8 miles) and has a very similar configuration as both that race and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar come out of a chute and then run all the way down the homestretch before going into the first turn. The #14 post is not a concern as Machado has the entire homestretch to work the horse over toward the rail to save ground. Or not. Remember, this is a horse that loves running long distances, so leaving him three or four wide would not be an issue. He does like being prominent in the early going of races, but the fractions are sure to be faster. The key for why I like Next so much is the same reason I was high on Thorpedo Anna in the Travers (G1), which is that we have not yet seen their best. I have never seen Machado go to the crop, so we do not know what Next might be capable of doing when asked, but I am eager to find out.
#11 Sierra Leone (12/1) – Could this finally be the time for the $2.3 million son of Gun Runner? He has been the bane of bettors these last three races as he lost as post time favorite in the Belmont (G1), Jim Dandy (G2), and Travers (G1). However, he hit the board in all three, which has become his calling card in recent starts. While he fails to win, he has never run a bad race from the standpoint of finishing off the board. He is a physically impressive specimen who wins the eye contest every time he walks into the paddock, but races are not won off looks and at some point, you cannot keep making excuses for a horse that continually burns money. He seems destined to follow in the tradition of horses like Tacitus and Midnight Bourbon who always ran well, but never got a defining victory. He is a late-running horse on a track that tends to overwhelmingly favor speed. While he should get ample pace to run into on Saturday, he often finds himself with too much work to do when turning for home. Speaking of that, Del Mar features a short stretch on the main track, which would mean that jockey Flavien Prat would have to make an early move around the turn before straightening out for home. It is easier said than done. I believe the only way he has a chance is if he turns for home sitting no worse than fourth or fifth with a limited number of horses to run down late. If he turns for home mid-pack, that seems like too much of an obstacle to overcome. However, he is FINALLY going to be a good price from a betting standpoint and has been the most consistent horse in his crop, so using him in vertical wagers makes plenty of sense.
City of Troy and Fierceness Discussion: Could either of these two amazing horses win this race? Of course. However, when betting on the races you must take stands against short prices in a big field, and this is mine. I absolutely love trainer Aidan O’Brien, and I have so much respect for the fact he is bringing over City of Troy to try the dirt. The Breeders’ Cup Classic is a better race as a result. However, betting a horse at 5/2 who has never tried the surface and looks (and moves) like a turf horse is just too short of a price for me to take. Could he run up into the trifecta or the superfecta? Yes. However, dirt racing is a whole other ballgame compared to what he has dealt with on turf. It does not mean the competition is better, but the dynamics of dirt racing and the need for speed is so more much paramount than in Europe. City of Troy has good early speed but showing speed in turf races in the UK and Ireland pales in comparison to the opening fractions they will run on Saturday. As for Fierceness, again, I am a big fan of trainer Todd Pletcher and admire the spotlight that owner Mike Repole commands as he is an enthusiastic booster for this sport that is sorely in need of one. However, until recently the son of City of Light had never strung together two good races, let alone three. He will be facing older horses for the first time, and this is a deeper group than any he has faced in his career. The post position helped him tremendously, but I still question whether he can get 1 ¼ miles against this group and suddenly become the most consistent horse in the division after a career that is defined by inconsistency.