Bourbonette Oaks Picks

It’s a Cincinnati Trophy rematch in Saturday’s Bourbonette Oaks, this time going 1 1/16.

Pace: Expect a moderate pace, with the three runners drawn to the outside likely to be up front. The #11 White Rocks may have gotten an easy lead last time, but she is drawn further to the outside today and won’t be able to sit as favorable a trip. She also won’t be able to save as much ground, and the #10 Just Ruthless seems likely to pressure her. The #1 Resolve is a bit of a wildcard regarding where she will be placed as she has flashed speed in some of her turf starts and is switching to the synthetic for the first time. Expect the #3 Admit to potentially sit closer to the #11 White Rocks as well, as she draws a better post position today.

Top Pick: The #3 Admit (9/2) drew the 10-hole in the Cincinnati Trophy and did not have the best of trips. She still was able to rally down the stretch and nearly closed the gap between her and White Rocks in the late stages. She did pass White Rocks on the gallop out, and I immediately knew I’d want to take her out of that race. She will be able to sit a better trip on Saturday, and the added distance looks to be a positive based on how she finished last time out. She is sired by Blame, whose progeny run well on dirt as well as the synthetic, and whose fillies run exceptionally well on just about anything. In 2023, we saw Wet Paint run 2nd in an allowance race at Turfway before winning the Martha Washington, the Honeybee (G3), the Fantasy (G3), and finish fourth in the Oaks (G1). Another name that I’m sure rings a bell is Epic Ride, who ran better figures on synthetic than on dirt. Her figures are on par with the best in this field, and she actually ran the best figure on the synthetic out of the entire group. At 9/2 on the morning line, the Claiborne-bred and owned Blame filly is my top choice and looks to get her third win for trainer Tom Drury who has won 12 of his 51 starts at this meet so far (24%).

Underneath: The #5 Bless the Broken (10-1), a filly I’ve always liked, is switching to the synthetic for the first time on Saturday after her 2nd place finish to Simply Joking in the Silverbulletday and 3rd place finish in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). I picked her underneath in the Silverbulletday because her Uncle Mo–Tapit sire line cross led me to believe she would handle an off-track well. I’m taking a similar angle here, as there is a heavy turf influence from the female family and she has the pedigree to run well here. She looks to be training well over the surface, and the company she has held in her previous starts is nothing to ignore. She was cross-entered in the Fair Grounds Oaks but opted to stay at Turfway where she posted her last two works. I have trust in trainer Will Walden’s ability to spot his horses. She offers a generous price on the morning line and is a hard-trying filly who will likely close from mid-pack.

Two other fillies I am using underneath are the #11 White Rocks (3-1) and the #2 Somethinabouther (5-1). I see White Rocks being able to hang on for a piece, as she was able to separate herself enough from the field last time out to stay clear of the oncoming Admit and Somethinabouther. With the added distance and a wider post position, I do see her getting beat, but I also don’t see her finishing off the board. The #2 Somethinabouther (5-1) is a G3 winner on the synthetic up at Woodbine and likely faced a field of similar caliber to what we see here. She will be coming late, and she also made up a significant amount of ground last time out in the Cincinnati Trophy. I expect her to be a main player in this race as she is now making her second start at Turfway for trainer Brendan Walsh. She has a good turf foundation coming into this as she has been tested against top-class fillies at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland.

Do you see White Rocks being able to wire the field, or are you playing against her? Reach out on @nyrabets and let us know how you are playing the Bourbonette Oaks.