Bold Ruler Stakes Picks

Horses run races, not statistics, but sometimes the statistics are so overwhelming that you need to share them, which is that case with #2 Top Gunner (8/5) for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat. Over the last month, Cox has won…get ready for this…71% of his stakes races across the country (10-14) while hitting the board at an 86% rate. He is scorching hot all over the country as he’s winning 39% of his entries at Keeneland and 40% of his entries during the Belmont Fall Meet hosted at Aqueduct. If you think those numbers are gaudy, wait until you get a load of this. Over the last year at Belmont at the Big A, Cox and Prat have teamed up to win at a 73% rate and Prat has won 31% of the time when aboard Cox runners in stakes races over the last year across all tracks. Now, does Top Gunner know or care about any of these stats? No. The horse just knows he wants his feed in the morning. However, he is coming off a victory in the twilight in the Parx Sprint here he bested eight other runners (and the impending darkness) to get the win. He has taken a big step forward since coming over to the Cox barn and has a versatile running style that should provide Prat with plenty of options out of the gate. #5 My Buddy B (5/1) has knocked heads against some of the best sprinters in the country who will be racing in the Breeders’ Cup next week as over the last three races he’s run against Skelly, Federal Judge, and Nakatomi. In between those races, he collected his own stakes victory down at Parx and can run a big figure that could challenge the top contenders. He has generally done his best running on the lead but can rate a bit from the second position while showing the ability to pass other runners. Trainer Krista Hetrick is not a household name as she runs at Mountaineer and Presque Isle and Charles Town, but she knows how to win and has done a great job managing this five-year-old son of Creative Cause since he came over from the Paolo Lobo barn. On the other end of the spectrum from Brad Cox, you have Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Over the last two months Mott has been impossibly cold as he is 9-119 (8%) among all starters. He has been even worse in New York during that stretch where he is 3-70 (4%) with a $0.51 ROI. His runner on Saturday, #7 Scotland (5/2), is a nice horse who is coming off a runner-up finish in the Vosburgh (G2) against Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile contender Mufasa. His race two back against $80K optional claiming company would certainly be good enough to win here, but there is a question of whether that effort was an anomaly as his other speed figures in 2024 have all been in the mid-to-high 80s and nowhere near the 98 that he earned for that effort. He has a more off-the-pace running style and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard the mount, which should always be viewed as a positive. Outside of his two attempts against Grade 1 company, he’s been an honest horse who rarely runs a bad race but is still searching for his first graded stakes win and doing so at a short price. Finally, #1 Little Vic (9/2) is appearing to round back into the form he showed in late 2022 and early 2023 when he won the Tom Fool Handicap (G3) for trainer Juan Avila. The son of Practical Joke hit a rough patch for much of the last year, but has shown significant improvement the last few times out to suggest that he is rounding back into form after winning an $80K optional claiming race at Aqueduct in his last start. He loses jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and Kendrick Carmouche takes up the mount in his place, though I like Carmouche even more on this horse as he should be aggressive out of the gate. I like Kendrick on speed horses and the post position will necessitate his tactics going to the front. The horse has had much of his success at six furlongs and could surprise at a modest price given his back