Blue Grass Picks

Pace: There should be a strong pace in today’s renewal of the Blue Grass (G1) with three horses that will be pressing the early pace with #5 East Avenue (3/1) and #4 Owen Almighty (3/1) likely going straight to the front, particularly with East Avenue getting blinkers added. Meanwhile, #1 River Thames (5/2) is going to be forward as well, but could choose to sit the pocket trip while breaking from the inside rail. It seems unlikely that all three horses would go at each other from the start, particularly with brothers Irad Ortiz Jr. (River Thames) and Jose Ortiz (Owen Almighty) riding two of the three main speed horses. Owen Almighty has benefited from some relatively easy fractions over a speed favoring track during his win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but he will face more pressure while stretching out in distance. The interesting dynamic will be East Avenue whose career highlight was a gate-to-wire victory at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last year and might just enjoy the track in Lexington. Keeneland can be a speed-favoring track as we say La Cara go gate-to-wire in the Ashland (G1) yesterday, so despite strong fractions, it could still be difficult to come from off the pace.

#5 East Avenue (3/1) – The Brendan Walsh trainee has been downright terrible the last two times out and I do not love betting him at 3/1 on the morning line, but I believe he is going to bounce back in a big way on Tuesday. His first two efforts, which were both gate-to-wire victories, led to him being the 9/5 favorite in November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but he missed the break from the inside rail and was sitting in the back of the pace most of the time on a merry-go-round track where he failed to make an impression. He came back to the track in February in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds and broke better this time as he closely stalked the pace but completely packed it in around the eighth pole and faded back to tenth. It was an effort that puzzled Walsh as the horse had been training well leading up to the race and came out of the contest in good order. The son of Medaglia d’Oro again is training well leading up to his second start in 2025 as he has returned to the site of his career achievement when he took last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) over the main track at Keeneland. On Tuesday, Walsh is adding blinkers, and it is entirely possible that he just prefers the track as evidenced by his local 47 second four-furlong workout leading up to the race that was seventh of 107 on March 29. The blinkers might indicate that Walsh believes he is a “need the lead” horse, though Walsh has always said he believed the horse could rate as he often trains off a work partner. I am banking on Walsh getting things right and East Avenue enjoying the friendly confines of Keeneland as a horse that will simply be better on the lead. He gets jockey Luan Machado up on the mount who is always at his best when he is aggressive, and he draws well to the outside of the other main speed contenders.

#1 River Thames (5/2) – The son of Maclean’s Music is coming off a narrow loss to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. It was his first effort going two turns and admittedly Gulfstream Park can be a speed-favoring track that allows horses to get extra distance, but despite being tracked down in the final strides by Sovereignty, I feel like that effort spoke more to Sovereignty’s ability rather that River Thames’ lack of it. The Todd Pletcher trainee seemed to lack some maturity in the stretch as he let up slightly and started looking over at the infield video screen. On Tuesday, he picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., which I view as a positive considering that Ortiz Jr. is hopping off Owen Almighty in favor of this New York-bred contender. Ortiz Jr. will need to get the horse out of the gate well from the inside rail, but he showed last time that the horse does not need the lead, and he should be content letting Owen Almighty and East Avenue go at it up front while sitting a pocket trip on the inside rail and saving all the ground. Look for River Thames to start making a move around the turn and either shoot through the inside rail or tip out at the top of the stretch. With the way the track plays at Keeneland, you do not want to be too far back, and he should get the first crack at the leaders without having to make up much ground. Much like East Avenue, I do not love the price you might end up getting on this horse relatively to his chances of winning, but that does not mean he isn’t a serious win contender, and he will be on all my Late Pick 5 tickets as I am likely to omit Owen Almighty of the favorites.

#6 Chancer McPatrick (7/2) – The late-running Chad Brown trainee has yet to win a two-turn race as he started off his career a perfect 3-3 when running one-turn races in which he got a significant amount of pace at which to run. From a pedigree standpoint, there should be minimal questions about his ability to get the distance as he is sired by McKinzie and is out of a Bernardini mare, so there is plenty of stamina on both sides of the family. Brown had said the horse was not fully cranked for his runner-up effort to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and considering he was running against the track bias as well as having to chase a lose leader, it was not a bad effort. The concern I have with Chancer has less to do with his talent and more to do with the track dynamics of Keeneland, which also tends to be a speed-favoring course. Yes, we saw Brown’s deep closer Sierra Leone win this race last year, but he also got insanely strong fractions and, quite frankly, Chancer McPatrick has not shown the same level of ability as Sierra Leone, particularly going long. Still, he should get ample pace and will be closer to 100% for this race, so I am expecting a strong effort. It might not be the best indicator, but it will be interesting to watch Race 5 today at Keeneland as it is the only other two turn dirt race on the card and it could lend some insight into how the track is playing regarding whether you can make up ground. The problem is that it is a maiden race, so those are not always the most reliable races from which to extrapolate. Expect for Chancer to make his run and if they got sub-47 seconds to the half-mile mark, then he has a real chance to close into the pace.

#3 Burnham Square (9/2) – The winner of the Holy Bull (G3) had a setback last time out in the Fountain of Youth (G2) where he finished fourth, but it was a better effort than it first looked as it seemed as if he was flattening out, but kept on to only finish three lengths back of the eventual winner of Sovereignty and close runner-up River Thames. It is notable that in his Holy Bull (G3) victory he defeated Tappan Street who came back to win the Florida Derby (G1) two weeks ago, so he has beaten quality foes. He has improved his Beyer Speed Figures in every career race, so another step forward would make him a strong win contender. It will be curious to see where jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has him in the early going as he is a horse that prefers to come from off the pace, but I would imagine he will want to try and be more forward than Chancer McPatrick so as to get the jump on that horse without leaving himself so much to do turning for home. Look for a mid-pack run while sitting behind River Thames so that he can start making his move on the turn. The fact trainer Ian Wilkes does not often have Kentucky Derby contenders likely means he will be one of the better prices of the main contenders as Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, and Brendan Walsh are all connections that take significant money at Keeneland. It would be a mild surprise to see him win, but it is hard to envision him not running a good race as he should appreciate more distance as trainer Ian Wilkes has stated the horse can run all day. Perhaps that is “trainer speak” but it does feel like he can grind away in the stretch and should be included in your vertical wagers.