Blame Stakes Picks

Overview: The Blame (G3) is a deep, competitive field where you will be forced to take a stand against a few of the top contenders because otherwise you will be forced to spread too deep while using nearly nothing but shorter prices. The pace will be honest as horses like Alexander Helios, Best Actor, and Most Wanted all want to be forward while others like Banishing, Mystik Dan, Hall of Fame, and Antiquarian will prefer to track. Of the top contenders, I find myself going against morning line favorite Post Time. He is an exceptionally talented horse for trainer Brittany Russell as he has never finished out of the trifecta in 16 career starts with 10 wins, but look at his last three victories, which was a four-horse field in the Carter (G2), a listed stakes at Laurel Park, and an optional claimer at Laurel Park. He has knocked heads with some of the best in the interim finishing second to National Treasure in the Met Mile (G1) and third in the Whitney (G1), but his off-the-pace running style dissuades me from using him as a top pick. The other horse that I am against is 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan. I was so happy to see him run well against Saudi Crown last time out in the Lake Ouachita Stakes at Oaklawn Park as he is still searching for that next win following his Kentucky Derby (G1) triumph. In fact, it has been 1,225 days since the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner has won a subsequent race, which is an insane streak that seems likely to end soon. However, Mystik Dan has always struggled to back up strong efforts with the best showing being his third-place finish in the Preakness (G1) following his landmark victory at Churchill Downs. A horse like Hall of Fame could be interesting at the 8/1 ML price, but I also do not entirely trust this horse to win a big race off Lasix though he did run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) off Lasix in his third-place finish behind Fierceness and Most Wanted in the Alysheba (G2).

#8 Banishing (9/2) – There is very little to know about this David Jacobson runner sired by Ghostzapper. His last five races, which have all been stakes affairs without the assistance of Lasix, have resulted in two victories and three runners-up including a dead heat with Nysos last time out in the Churchill Downs (G1). During this five-race stretch he has run between six and nine furlongs, which shows an uncommon versatility. His effort last time out was even more impressive as the typically forward Banishing was relegated to last-place in an 11-horse field during the early going of the race but showed incredible fight to close from the back and display a different dimension while nearly getting up for the win. That said, I have always been hesitant to support Banishing at nine furlongs. I think he is best sprinting but can get a mile or 8.5 furlongs under the right circumstances, but the extra distance could be a challenge. He is incredibly game, and jockey Flavien Prat sees fit to get back aboard after navigating him to victory in the Oaklawn Mile (G3). He should sit a very effective tracking trip off the pace of Most Wanted. The only question will be whether he can close and maintain the stamina by going a distance he has never won.

#6 Hall of Fame (8/1) – With the scratch of Most Wanted, you will not be getting 8/1 on this Steve Asmussen horse who always had lofty expectations since selling for $1.4 million at a yearling. The son of Gun Runner did not reach his full potential until recently as he fell short in his first attempt to run against graded stakes competition as a three-year-old on the Kentucky Derby trail. However, the horse came into his own at Fair Grounds over the winter when he won the Mineshaft (G3) and finished second in the New Orleans Classic (G2). He earned 100 and 106 Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) in those efforts, but the big question that still loomed over him was whether he could run those efforts off Lasix. Running in stakes races at Fair Grounds in Louisiana allowed him to run those big efforts with the assistance of Lasix, but he switched off it for his last race in the Alysheba (G2) and while he finished third to Fierceness and Most Wanted, he backed up his previous form by running a 100 BSF. Additionally, it was a race that came back exceptionally fast considering Fierceness set the Churchill Downs track record for going 1 1/16 miles, so finishing third to that performance is not so bad. From a race standpoint, jockey Jose Ortiz is back aboard and should have the horse positioned behind the early speed horses in a perfect tracking position. His pedigree of being a Gun Runner out of a Giant’s Causeway mare should allow him to appreciate every inch of the nine furlong distance and he will get first crack at the lead horses who might have distant limitations.

#9 Post Time (3/1) – As I wrote above, Post Time is one of the most consistent horses we have in training as he shows up and runs his race every time out, but as the 3/1 morning line favorite, I have a hard time using him up top when you look at where his previous victories have been. Nine of his 10 career victories have come in the state of Maryland with the only exception being the four-horse Carter (G2) last year that he nearly lost because jockey Sheldon Russell, for some inexplicable reason, decided it was smart to go to the outside of Super Chow who has a well-known propensity to lug out, which pushed Post Time further out in the middle of the track as he tried to close on Castle Chaos. In my opinion, this has been a consistent issue with Post Time, which is that Sheldon Russell often rides him like he is clearly the best horse in the race, which he is in Maryland, but not everywhere else. Taking the horse to the back of the field, leisurely traveling wide while giving up ground, and making late moves is not something you can get away with when you are facing top quality runners. Could Post Time win? Absolutely! However, in a field where three horses are coming off 100+ BSF efforts and another (Banishing) has run 100+ BSFs in five of his last six races, Post Time lacks a speed advantage and will be coming from the back of the field. There should be an honest enough pace for him to close into, and it is always scary to leave a horse off your tickets who has shown such incredible consistency, but I believe he will fall just short as he often does against this caliber of competition.

#3 Antiquarian (15/1) – If there is one longshot I will ride with in this race it is the son of Preservationist. Baby P, as he is affectionately called by the owners at Centennial Stables, has always been a personal favorite, but he also has backed it up on the track. The Todd Pletcher trainee has three wins in six career starts including a victory in last year’s Peter Pan (G3) going Saturday’s distance. When you go through his running lines, you realize the horse has done very little wrong in his career. He finished second in debut to Conquest Warrior who won his next start and landed in the Florida Derby (G1) after that. Antiquarian won his next start as well, breaking his maiden over next out winner Cornishman. His effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2) was far better than it looked as he broke through the starting gate and threw jockey John Velazquez off prior to the start of the race. He had to make a wide move around the turn and flattened out in the stretch, but it was a big effort coming off a maiden victory. He won the Peter Pan (G3) next time out and then finished fifth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) behind a trio of Grade 1 winners Dornoch, Mindframe, and Sierra Leone. Pletcher sent him to the bench for 10 months following that effort and he returned in April to easily win a seven-furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park against optional claiming company. He is bred to go longer, so the distance was not ideal, but he handled it professionally and earned a career-best 93 BSF. There is no doubt he needs to get faster, but he should take a big step forward in his second race off the bench while stretching out to nine furlongs. Hall of Famer John Velazquez is back aboard and the fact Pletcher is spotting him here speaks to his confidence in the colt. I do not know if he is good enough to win, but I would include him on all of my vertical wagers.