Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Picks

Pace: The Black-Eyed Susan (G2) might lack star power, but it is an incredible betting race that has a murky pace situation. It appears to be a jockey’s race as there is not a clear “need the lead” type in the field and it could simply come down to which jockey is most aggressive, or which one puts their horse in the best spot. On paper, #6 Paris Lily (8/1) appears to be a horse that could go to the front with Joel Rosario aboard as she is coming off a victory last time out in gate-to-wire fashion over a wet track. However, a horse like #1 Liam in the Dust (6/1) with jockey John Velazquez aboard could also be forward given the rail position and Velazquez’s tendency to be aggressive with horses early in a race. Meanwhile, you have horses like #3 Margie’s Intention (3/1) and #9 Moon Cache (20/1) who also have good early speed but are likely content to track the pace. Without much pace it would appear challenging to close from the back of the field given the dynamics in addition to the track conditions, which are likely to favor front end speed.

#6 Paris Lily (8/1) – This is a wide-open race and from a betting standpoint, one in which I will be spreading in my Late Pick 5 sequence. However, as a top choice, I wanted to go to a horse that is likely to be the best price and that is the Brendan Walsh trainee. The Godolphin daughter of City of Light out of a Storm Cat mare has gotten better as she stretched out and gained experience with her best effort being her last one in which she earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). While she came up well short against stakes competition in the Untapable back in December at Fair Grounds, that was her first race facing winners and was likely too much of a test for her third career start. Walsh then sent her to the grass where she ran a solid second to Fionn, who went on to win a stakes race in her next start before finishing third in the Appalachian (G2). Despite the promising turf start, she was sent back to the main track at Keeneland where she wired a nine-horse field over a sloppy track with Joel Rosario aboard. Rosario remains aboard for Friday, which is positive as there are few better at getting a frontrunner to finish than Rosario. Without much pace, expect Rosario to be aggressive and get this one over to the rail going into the first turn to be controlling speed. If he can carve out reasonable fraction over a track that tends to be favorable to early speed on big days, then there might not be any catching her. She is the type of filly who appears primed for a big effort, but she is switching off Lasix after getting it her last two starts. It gives me confidence that she broke her maiden without Lasix, so she has experience running well under these conditions. I love the fact she can handle the wet track, which will likely be the case again Friday and Walsh has been tightening the screws since her last race.

#8 Amarth (4/1) – Of the shorter priced horses on the morning line, Amarth is the most appealing to me for a variety of reasons. First, she simply has a class edge over most of the field having run against the best fillies in the division during the runup to the Kentucky Oaks (G1). While she, like Paris Lily, did not run well in the Untapable, she came back to finish a close second to Drexel Hill in the Busher Invitational and we saw Drexel Hill go on to finish second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the Ashland (G1) where she appeared to not appreciate being as far back as she was while chasing a filly like La Cara who was loose on the lead. She has won going two turns before and can come from off the pace but does appear to have the ability to lay closer to the pace than it might first appear as when she runs her best, she usually is within a couple lengths of the leader. Jockey Luis Saez stays aboard this daughter of McKinzie as he will have ridden her five times now in seven career starts. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has her going well leading up to this race with some strong workouts in the morning at Keeneland and I would not be surprised to see her running closer to the lead on Friday. She has been a big price in her last two races, but she fits very well against this field as her career best BSF of a 78 is the third highest of the nine drawn runners. So long as Saez keeps her within striking distance, she has shown the ability to close behind modest fractions with her biggest question being whether she can handle the wet track.

#7 Reply (8/1) – Ascending horses making their third career start in a graded stakes race is a recipe some avoid, but I tend to lean into given the right conditions. Reply has plenty to like for Maryland-based trainer Brittany Russell who dominates the circuit year-round. The daughter of Curlin should have no problem with distance and showed plenty of talent stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in her last start where she finished a close second in the Weber City Miss while earning a 72 BSF. She does tend to come from further off the pace, which is one of the reasons I put her third in addition to the fact she will need to get a bit faster to compete in this race, though she has every right to move forward. The Repole Stables runner also gets a massive jockey upgrade from Sheldon Russell to Irad Ortiz Jr. who might try to get her to sit a little more mid-pack rather than making her try to pass them all in the stretch. She has been training well for Russell leading up to the race and there were always some expectations with this filly as she sold for $450,000 at a yearling at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. If Ortiz Jr. can get her to sit a little closer to the pace, I think she has a big chance on Friday as she was able to close and pass horses in her last race despite sitting behind 1:14+ fractions to the six-furlong mark. Additionally, if you go back to her debut running a mile at Colonial Downs, she beat a horse East Passage who has gone on to win her next two starts including a $50K optional claimer last time out where she dominated by eight lengths, so it is promising to see that she’s beaten horses who have gone on to improve in subsequent starts. I believe she is a horse that should be included on your tickets as another alternative to the favorites.

#3 Margie’s Intention (3/1) – I debated writing about #5 Kinzie Queen (10/1) in this spot as she owns the highest BSF in the field (83), but she is a deep closer on a track that typically does not play to that running style and, in a race, where there is unlikely to be a hot pace. I am all the way out on morning line favorite #4 Running N Gunnin (5/2) who simply is not fast enough by any metric to win this race. Therefore, I wanted to talk about the Louisiana-bred daughter of Honor A.P. who was recently transferred from the barn of Brendan Walsh to Brad Cox. She has never faced open company and always gotten bested by Blue Fire in the Louisiana-bred stakes races, but perhaps that is not such a bad thing as Blue Fire just finished second in the Eight Belles (G2) two weeks ago at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. However, she never got close to challenging Blue Fire in her previous two starts and she will be running off Lasix for the first time in her career. Cox has incredible numbers with horses who are recently additions to his barn including this year’s Gotham (G3) winner Flood Zone. While she picks up top rider Flavien Prat and should sit a comfortable tracking trip, there are just enough questions about her to make me skeptical of taking her at her morning line price. I am not sure she wants to go nine furlongs. I am not sure how she runs off Lasix. I am not sure how she fits against open company. For a horse that is 3/1, those are too many unknowns. If she were to float up to 6/1 then she would become more interesting, but I will likely try to beat her and Runnin N Gunnin on many of my horizontal tickets.