Birdstone Stakes Picks

With the superstar stayer Next on the sidelines, the dirt marathon division feels wide open as opposed to the last few years. A new crop of distance specialists has emerged, and this is a competitive renewal of the Birdstone Stakes. Morning line favorite #2 Parchment Party (7/5) is coming off an impressive score last time out in the Belmont Gold Gup (G3) going 1 ¾ miles, but that comes with a huge asterisk. The race was carded for the turf and Parchment Party was an MTO entry that drew into the field once the race came off the turf. It was the first victory for the son of Constitution since November 2023. Yes, he looked good winning, but he also has a late running style that is not always conducive to success in these type of marathon races where the pace is slow and you tend to find one-paced horses do better. Meanwhile, you have #4 Lambeth (5/2) coming up from Churchill Downs for trainer Joe Sharp who is winning at a 29% clip with his entries at Saratoga this meet. Churchill Downs shippers have been running incredibly well at The Spa this summer and this one has a stakes victory going 12 furlongs but has a pair of off-the-board finishes the last two times out. He does have a good running style with good early and late pace figures. You also have #6 Digital Ops (3/1) for Saffie Joseph Jr. who is only 4-49 (8%) in stakes races at Saratoga in the last five years. The horse is stretching out for the first time, but has great early speed and might be able to stay on with slower pace and he picks up jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. This is a lot to like with this horse and Joseph Jr. has success stretching horses out, but this could be a tough spot. Another Churchill Downs shipper is #3 Game Warden for trainer Norm Casse. This one has a pair of top three finishes in dirt marathon stakes races the last two times out and should sit a nice trip just behind the early pace. Casse does not bring many horses up to Saratoga, but 67% of them have hit the board this meet, and any horse owned by Flying P Stables tends to run well at The Spa.

How I’m playing it: It is hard for me to take Parchment Party at a short price coming off an off-turf effort. I’m also skeptical of Digital Ops getting the distance. As a result, I’d lean on the two Churchill Downs shippers with Lambeth and Game Warden. The latter is the better price and would be my play based upon the morning line value, but simply boxing those two in an exacta would be a safe play as well.